Just spoke with a broker buddy who mentioned that regional spikes are likely, partcularly sheet goods. Not so much from what might seem apparent, but the fact that Port of New Orleans has reduced capacity to ship and receive cargo and many goods are thus being redirected via St. Lawrence seaway. Transportation costs (as almost always) will be the real driver. Not sure whether or not to worry yet, but will be sure to highlight this in upcoming proposals.
Replies
From what I see, inflation in the economy is running 2X-3X the government numbers. In my business prices for plastic parts are up 22% compared to last year, and metals are up over 10% on average. Freight charges are up a crazy amount. When I looked at an old bill from 2000, the shipping charges for the same weight and distance are 250% higher today.
If I were planning any long-term construction project, I'd figure on material prices increasing 10%-15% a year, and more if they are made from petroleum.
Here in Mobile, AL, OSB was approx. $9/ sheet the week before Katrina. Now it's almost $17. Shingles have went up about $.30/ bundle in recent weeks; Timberline's are 1-2 bucks a bundle higher.Jason Pharez Construction
Framing & Exterior Remodeling
Was in a Lowes today pawing thru some lumber when a guy went cruising by with a cartful of 2x's.
Got to talking and he said two of his suppliers both said by December they except to see close to double the price on ply and osb.
be hey who needs the stockmarket?
r u a feckless dastard?
Lumber and plywood aren't typically shipped by water, so the Port of New Orleans has no effect on it.
I think that most of what we've seen in plywood prices is from panic buying from the hurricanes. There's ALWAYS panic buying when a hurricane hits. Plywood is particularly vulnerable.
In general, lumber and ply prices are up SOME due to high fuel costs. But there's no widespread shortage.
Actually - I look for lumber to go DOWN over the next few months - At least the SYP lumber. I figure there are millions of trees down in the south where they cut SYP. The mills and land owners are going to try to salvage those trees before they rot. That may dump a lot of extra lumber on the market.
But I admit - That's just speculation.
Overall I don't see any reason to expect that prices will go up from here. Plywood should drop back after the initial panic is over. But it generally takes a while.
When do you think that plywood will be at its lowest price? I'm going to need about 150 sheets of Struct #1 in LA next summer.
-- J.S.
"When do you think that plywood will be at its lowest price?"
I ain't got a crystal ball. There's too much to consider to really have a good indication of what's going to happen.
But lowest prices are typically seen during the first quarter. Around here they start going up in the spring.
I don't know if California would be different, though...
When someone asks you, "A penny for your thoughts," and you put in your two cents worth, what happens to the other penny?
OK, thanks. I'll start watching prices in January. All I need is a few days' notice when the probable bottom is reached. ;-)
-- J.S.
After the Hurricane of 1938, you couldn't give away lumber in New England...Every farmer, & there were a lot more of them then, had a sawmill, & was just too yankee cheap to let it rot...so they sawed it, stickered it, & then let it rot...
My grandfather built a huge (for those days) 4 story 100 x 100 foot chicken coop with some of his, & there were still stacks around when I was a kid in the 50's...
for whatever it's worth...
LOL, You've sure got the Yankee temperment down!
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
If I have it down, it's because I have it...I am struggling to clean out my cellar - trying to get rid of all the stuff...well, some of the stuff... that I've accumulated, and, yes, paid to move a few times, because it is perfectly good & might come in handy some day.
And it physically hurts...
but it feels so good after it's done...(Maybe this needs a new thread)
Kate
OSB here in Tampa (at lowes) is still 9.99
I just bought some 2 x 6 x 12 syp two days ago, and they were darn near .80 cheaper then 90 days ago! Go figure
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WWPD
I'm in Jacksonville where the price of OSB is $13.95 per at Lowes. 100 miles south in Port Orange (s. of Daytona Beach) it's $9.99 per, also at Lowe's. I'm going to see if the local Lowe's will match that price so I don't have to schlep it up. Since I'm also doing some work in Daytona it's no big thing to truck up a couple of bunks if they won't cooperate. That's a savings of over $425 for my next job.
Dang, it was 15 and change for 7/16osb at a Lowes in northern Ohio.
If it was 9.99 here now I'd buy a stack.
r u a feckless dastard?
I bought 1/2 stack before the Hurricane just in case. I saw 2 other full stacks bought and on hold.
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WWPD
Go on-line to Lowe's and check out their stores within a reasonable driving distance from you.
The $9.99 price still holds as of last night (will check again this morning) only 100 miles from me in Port Orange, FL.
Since I have to go down there today anyhow I'll be picking up a bunk to bring home. Can't kick about saving $5 per sheet even if I travel a bit to get it. I wouldn't do it for just a couple/three sheets but I need about 100 for the next job. Local store would not price match - they lose.
I walked through the local HD on the day Katrina hit and 1/2"cdx ply was 14.99 sheet.
FOUR DAYS later it was 18.99 a sheet. That's here in Seattle.
T.
7/16 OSB $15 today @ HD in Cedar City Utah.
Joe H