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I’d watch more for local trends than the big national
picture if you want to keep a kind of pulse on this.
Mainly, it doesn’t matter much that building is booming,
just that it doesn’t stop altogether.
How much can you do at one time?
A question: How many of us are getting a little used to
turning down work?
Dog
Replies
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I went to a convention last year in Kansas City ( NARI or NAHB - can't remember which). Anyway, they had a seminar with Yankelovitch Associates (a research firm) which showed remodeling becoming a 4 Trillion dollar industry by 2004 - then tapering off from there to about 2010 when it goes pffft for a while. (remember pffft? that was in the '80s when you could finally get caught up on all your "honey dos").
Seems to be proving out so far, Interest rates go up and people remodel. Interest rates go down, people buy up, and sell their ould homes to people who then remodel (promptly changing all the things they originally bought that house for).
Meanwhile, the new home buyers start adding extras after moving in.
I see some sort of pattern here - anybody else?
*
Why are all you spending time reading this - you should be out there raking it in while you still can:
News report: "A government report last week indicated that construction of new homes and partments rose 0.4 percent in August, leaving analysts marveling at the continued strength in housing despite rising mortgage rates."
However: "Stocks plunged in heavy selling on Wall Street Thursday as investors worried about higher interest rates and the strength of the dollar."
Am I just being overly cynical or does it appear to others that the Federal Reserve will not be happy until there is a long line of contractors and tradespeople at the unemployment office. Seems like there should be a more fair way of controlling "inflation fears" without putting almost all of the burden on construction and those other activities that require large amounts of borrowed money. Maybe put a temporary extra tax on those big corporations that are pumping out incredible profits (or paying exorbitant executive salaries) - such as Microsoft - instead of just continuing to bump up interest rates.
Of course, it has been said that Greenspan's Federal Reserve is simply the policy arm of big banks and mega-corporations...
(Yeah, still way too much time on my hands, but that should soon change...)
*Well, for starters, we could reverse the current trend in the trade deficit. We could revoke "favored nation" status with those countries which won't abide by our rules. Now, what I mean there is that those nations want to deal with the USA and then run roughshod over us while we look the other way. Meanwhile, they are sapping our economy of it's vitality. We could, in short, quit trying so damn hard to please everyone.
*You got my vote Rich
*I'd watch more for local trends than the big national picture if you want to keep a kind of pulse on this. Mainly, it doesn't matter much that building is booming, just that it doesn't stop altogether.How much can you do at one time?A question: How many of us are getting a little used to turning down work?Dog
*Actually, i think the immediate future is bright for y'all -- I expect the construction trade to get a push a few years beyond the market going flat (all it'll take it some crisis or another to do it, or, God forbid, the recovery of our competitors abroad whose stumbles have brought tons of foreign money into the American markets). Up to know many ordinary Joes and Janes have, if they're smart, kept their money in the market and let the gains accumulate. Now that the market is insanely high, and certainly after the bubble bursts, people will start to sell (causing further declines) and take their profits. Real estate will start to look like a good investment again, and many will decide to get the home improvements or dream house they've been putting off.Will interest rates rise much? Jeez, they're so low now it's like no one remembers the 70's and 80's.