I plan on starting construction of a new home in January here it Texas. Is the hurricane reconstruction going to make building materials skyrocket? Does anyone have experience with price changes in areas surrounding previously affected hurricane areas? How long will it take the wholesale market to price the increased demand into the material costs? I fear that I am screwed if I wait until January and may still be if I start in November. Any thoughts?
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I'm not in a position to give you an educted reply, but my WAG is that the building materials are going to go up in price.
Prices went up following the FL hurricanes. Prices went up after the tsunami. Prices went up when the Iraqi rebuilding hit its stride.
They say the Orleans hurricane is going to cost more than all of last year's FL ones. Probably means $23 OSB, $3.50 2x4's, etc.
jt8
"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." --Warren Buffett
I heard that sheet goods are going to go up because a lot of it comes in through the Port of New Orleans, though this will be short term because other ports can take up the slack. The long term problem will be that the supply of sheet goods will increase do to increased demand like it did when the Iraq War started so the price will climb. I couldn't tell you how much the price increase will be or how much additional it will cost to do your house.
Day
Of course I might be wrong because I am not an expert, just a know-it-all.
I think price increase is inevitable. I am really trying to decide if there is any real value from starting in November instead of January. My guess is the prices will reflect the yet to come increase in demand very soon and it will not matter when I start.
(I apoligize if this is a duplicate. My posts are acting screwy with errors)
I think price increases are inevitable. I am really trying to see if I have any ability to minimize the impact by starting in November rather than waiting until January or even later next year. My guess is that the price increases will get implemented very soon and will last quite a while. Basically I think I am stuck with it.
As far as shipping goes the real problem may be millwork, a lot of mouldings come out of brazil, but hopefully houston can make up the difference of what cant come through NO.
I suspect prices will rise. Always do. This time they have a really good excuse.
I suspect the reconstruction process hasn't really started yet. Perhaps, I'm no expert in building materials, there is some way to 'lock in' a price. Perhaps hot.
I suspect that January, about five months after the hurricane, will be a high point in demand for materials.
IMHO you would do well to try to prepurchase as many of the materials as possible as soon as possible. This isn't without risk or cost itself. Buy it and your going to have to store it and protect it from the elements, casual pilfering, vandalism and, once prices make people desperate, rampant and widespread organized plundering.
A couple of guys with a flat-bed semi and a small portable forklift, like those used to deliver sod, can strip a site clean in a few hours. It happens so you can't assume that a large and heavy bundles of lumber and shingles will stay put if not watched essentially 24/7. Bring the shotgun as some of the groups may not easily take no for an answer and, if things get really desperate, may not be above violence.
I had a friend relate a story about how they bought their lumber and hired their long unemployed nephew to camp on site to protect it. Evidently he set up a tent and a shed and lived on site for most of a year. During construction he cleaned up mostly and did some work as a framer. But seeing as that he spend most of the night awake he slept most of thee day. Once the house was dried in he moved into it for shelter.
Your facing a hard choice.
I have already heard from my plumbing supplier that he can only guarantee pricing on PVC products for 30 days.
Any petroleum product is going to have a major price increase. Shingles, sheet goods, fiberglass, etc. You also have to figure that all your suppliers will increase their fuel surcharge.
Also my subcontractors have already started to ask for price increases due to the fuel costs they incur.
Make sure you adjust your budgets accordingly