Question 1: Is Estimating an Art or a Science
Is it a talent that just some people have and others don’t (Art) or is it a craft that can be taught and developed (Science). Or is it something else….
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ART
yes
Both. Like a lot of other things.
What is question 2?
Question 2: With So Many Options Availible From Simply Using an Excel Spreadsheet to Full Fledged Comprehensive Estimating Software Why Are There So Many Contractors Still Using Yellow Legal Pads For Estimating?
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It's art and science; a mixture of both. I'd add that it's an exprience based on experience.
I would say it could be taught, but creating proposals with numbers derived from estimating programs or books will require a well honed salesperson to sell the job. That's my opinion and I will admit to never having used a book or program for the purposes of estimating. Although I know it is done all the time; I can't imagine the effort it takes for someone with no practical experience to create a proposal and sell a job using cold facts and figures that someone else has prepared. I'm talking about software or books, not an in house database that has been established over a long period of time based on experience.
Yellow pads? We've been here before you and I. If I had a little more inclination to learn Excell or hire someone who does I could invest a huge amount of time creating my own data base for the purpose of creating estimates among other things. Personally I'd rather be out working. The data base is in my head. The yellow pad is where the numbers add up. I present a crisp Word generated proposal to my client.
Good to hear from you. Your threads are always provacative at least!
Eric
Eric, first of all thanks for your comments. I particularly liked how you added that it's "it's an experience based on experience". I think it a mixture of both art and science but my view of it is it should be seen as 95% science with a desk of 5% art. And while I feel the science part can very definitely be taught the artists touch is not necessarily innate or intrinsic and can be developed and cultivated too.
"If I had a little more inclination to learn Excel or hire someone who does I could invest a huge amount of time creating my own data base for the purpose of creating estimates among other things." While it does take some time to REALLY learn excel it doesn't take much time at all to learn the very basic elements which in my opinion are a huge improvement over manual calculations. Plus having already completed estimates stored on a hard disk to use as templates for future projects is an incredible time saver over rewriting data and specifications all over again by hand. And even if you don't want to use the old estimate as a template just being able to cut and paste lines of data from it into a new estimate is in itself another time saver too.
I think a day of training or a week of training in excel would pay off for any contractor in a multitude of ways well beyond just estimating. To tell you the truth I don't use excel for any estimating at all but I do use it a lot for "what if" scenario planning and developing business plans. I will also use as an analysis tool too to see how we've done and look for production processes where we can look to improve or change directions. Stan might appreciate that we used excel to find out that we sucked (relatively speaking) at the production of straight run stairs so we dropped doing them and only do curves. We found we could outsource straight run stairs and still sell them at a profit while concentrating our production on our area of expertise which was curved work and charge for that work at a higher margin.
We do our estimating (and a lot of other management functions) in a FileMaker based system I developed. Now that took time. I think the days of contractors seriously developing there own systems are long gone now. You would need to devote a lot of time to it and I think most contractors would be better served working in the field generating revenue, earning the bucks so to speak, while hiring someone to develop or modify a commercial system to suit their needs. That sort of aligns with your observation and feeling when you say "...Personally I'd rather be out working."
But then looking at that if you had an automated estimating system that could reduce the time you actually spend estimating by 50% to 90% wouldn't that be worth it? You could then take those hours saved and turn them into hours producing real revenue couldn't you?
"The data base is in my head. The yellow pad is where the numbers add up. I present a crisp Word generated proposal to my client." The database is in your head? Geez, you a much better man than I am. I could never keep track of all that data in my head and even if I could keep track of some of it I couldn't keep track of it accurately. While a lot of the stuff we do over and over all the time there is plenty of stuff that comes up from time to time that we haven't done in years and I would just never be able to recall the data (and if it in my head no one else in the company can use it either). You might want to try this, it's free: 360 Historical Database 1.3 it's a simple database file where you can keep your information. You can then click on a button and it will copy the line of data and allow you to plug it into an excel spreadsheet where you can add it all up (and/or manipulate it) and then use that data in your word document. (You did know that you can program sections of your word documents to be excel spreadsheet so that when the spreadsheet is changed and updated the word document is too?).
"I present a crisp Word generated proposal to my client." Good job, that's a huge effective sales weapon having a good looking document to present to a client. But being able to generate that document and get it back to a client in just a matter of a few hours rather than a few days is another huge weapon. It was one of two years ago I went to look at a project and I got to the prospective client a half and hour after another contractor had met with her. She had a set of detailed plans developed by an architect for the project and he told her he would need 1 to 2 weeks to get an "estimate" back to her and I pounced on the opportunity. I had her "quote" for an $82,000 deck pergola arbor gazebo project back to her in by noon the following day and she called us that night to seal the deal. It was like a 25-26 hour turn around.
There were like 11, maybe as many as 16 key elements in the project that we had unit costs for and all I had to do was count the quantities and plug it those values and we had a price quote for her. The other contractor needed time to work on and develop those unit costs where all we had to do was look them them up.
Also what was sort of interesting about that project and one of the resons it sticks in my was that I estimated that job for my friends company to do. My friend had to go off to visit his daughter in college unexpectedly and asked me to meet with his client an estimate the project for him. All I did was sell it and help supervise it a little. The materials costs were going to be the same since we both use the same suppliers and the labor hours would be the same too so all I had to do was adjust for a few slight difference in labor billing rates and each of those unit costs was modified automatically and globally and the estimate was done.
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Jerrald,
Plus having already completed estimates stored on a hard disk to use as templates for future projects is an incredible time saver over rewriting data and specifications all over again by hand. And even if you don't want to use the old estimate as a template just being able to cut and paste lines of data from it into a new estimate is in itself another time saver too.
I do that alot. It's one of the reasons I always wanted a computer. I used to use those horrible carbonless forms........ughh!
Your comments on learning Excell or other like programs are well taken. I have Excell and I don't even use it! I believe where alot of the difference between who is and who is not willing to use such a prog. lies in how many jobs a contractor is seeking or looking at, the size of his workforce, get down to nut and bolts do I really need this?
If I am one or two or three, lets say I only need to generate a limited amount of paperwork to keep things going, what is my incentive to change that? To play devils advocate what hard evidence can you give me that will encourage me to change from a system that ain't broke? At what expence? And it's going to increase my bottom line by how much?
You don't need a backhoe to dig a couple of piers. Why do I need a big program to generate a dozen or so proposals and then track the jobs? (I did eight projects last year)
Don't get me wrong. I think you are right on the money with this. Anyone thinking of starting up, or over would probably do very well to invest the time and money up front and get the ball rolling in the right direction. About seven years ago a local GC was bowing smoke up my butt about hiring me as a super. As our talks progressed I told him that we would need to set up hard systems for tracking and communicating all set up on computers and in house networks. The position never panned out. He has a fair sized crew, I've done some work for him here and there; kept in touch with some of the workers and clients. He never set up the sytems he needed. What a mess, and in spite of it he still makes money although he constantly deals with disgruntled workers and clients over what I believe is his lack of proficient usable systems.
Did I see a box van with Paradigm on the side heading N up 684 a couple of days ago? Where bound to run into each other one day!
Keep it coming........
Eric
Eric-"Did I see a box van with Paradigm on the side heading N up 684 a couple of days ago? Where bound to run into each other one day!" Nope not on a box truck and the only one on 684 would be me going north on 684 to catch 84 over to Newtown and Monroe CT and I'm in a generic white Honda Accord. I fade into the crowd. Very non-descript. So where are you? Most of our projects are to the south and southeast. North Salem and the top of Ridgefield are the farthest north we've gone in years.
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Eric backtracking to you post msg#39030.37 from the other day-"If I am one or two or three, lets say I only need to generate a limited amount of paperwork to keep things going, what is my incentive to change that? To play devils advocate what hard evidence can you give me that will encourage me to change from a system that ain't broke? At what expence? And it's going to increase my bottom line by how much?" I wrote this response but screwed up and somehow got sidetracked and never finished it and posted it at the time. My bad.
Well, were sort of in agreement on that. I had a contractor client call me back in the spring who wanted to hire me to help him computerize his operation. He felt that would help streamline his operation and give him more time to build. After meeting with him and evaluating what he was doing the only thing I did with him in the "IT" (Information Technology) are was hook him up to the internet, show him places he could go and methods he could use to research information on materials and building products. Showed this site too although I yet to see him check in an say something here yet. That's not a whole lot of IT is it?
Computerizing his estimating procedures wasn't going to save him anything. He's a spec builder building maybe one house a year or every ten months (albeit a luxury home) and since they were pretty much variation on the same thing and he collected quotes from all his subs rather than trying to estimate their trades himself he was doing pretty good. Having never even worked on a spec house in my career he certainly understood the market here a lot better than I do. Since most of the variation in the selling price of his product was in understanding of what the market will bear and not a more accurate understanding of what his costs were he didn't really need computerized estimating. If he ever decides to go into custom home building and or remodeling well then that's another matter and computerized estimating then needs to be reconsidered and we talked about that. (Robert are you reading this by any chance?)
What we did figure out as as an area that needed to be improved on that would help streamline things was his filing system and samples so that's what we worked on.
On the other hand years ago I met this painter on one of our projects who I thought was conscientious and really paid attention to detail so I asked him if he would be interesting in painting and/or staining our installations and he was. I gave him two project to look at a quote for me and when I got this quotes I couldn't figure out what the reasoning was that went into them. The prices he gave me were both inverted from what I was expecting (the high one should have been lower and the low one should have been higher and the gap between them made no sense either. When I asked him how he figured the jobs it was "I just look at them and I come up with a price" He didn't measure anything or have real unit costs in mind for anything. He didn't have any kind of system for it to be broken.
I knew that if he was closing on 100% of his bid he was making a killing on some while losing his shirt on others. But since the reality was he wasn't closing on all his bids since some were way too high. The jobs he was getting he was either making a decent rate or losing money on which averaged out to something right smack between doing okay and losing his shirt. That was what inspired me to create what is now evolved into my Trade Contractor Estimating program. I originally called it the simple estimate worksheet since it was just that. A simple estimate worksheet but what it did was it gave him a place (database) to store his bids and and the criteria he used to develop them.
He got more consistent and faster with his bids to both me and other contractor and homeowner clients that after two years he had and eventually made enough money that he could by a new SUV and move to California with his girlfriend. So maybe I lost out on the deal? Well not really, any trade contractor we work with who doesn't have a computerized system in place we give the program to. The benefit to use is we can then import their information directly into our bids without having to manually enter the data and we have their bidding information as part of our own database system that we can then use again as a historical basis for estimating future work.
Sometimes computerizing estimating makes a difference and sometimes it wont. However I think way more often than not (maybe a 10-1 ratio) it will make a difference.
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Jerrald,
Thanks for that reply, I thoought I got left out! So he bought himself and SUV; not you?
I think I'm in agreement with Jeff Buck ar along those lines. I certainly beleive that we could all do better in many ways business wise by organizing, tracking and utilizing as much information as is USEFULL to our respective business'.
I've been thinking about this alot since your initial post. Time and typing skills may limit the amount of that thinking I can pass along to you and others.
One thing thought that keeps recurring involves the usefulness of data based unit pricing for remodeling when some of us complete tasks that are like in scope but in practice are VERY different from one another. Again, I think it was Buck on tilie work.
I've done a fair amount of ceramic and stone installations and continue to do so as long as I feel confident in producing a quality job using the materials specified. In the past ten years or so the variety of tile and stone available to consumers has literally exploded. To this day I am astounded at what is available. Given the variety of material and the particular nuances involved (IMHO) in the installation of each variety how can a program(s) as you suggest help me out? I think it goes back to the old argument about each project being a prototype. (even though the individual tasks may not be).
I am using tile and stone as just one example. It seems to me that there are just SO MANY variables to any given task in remodeling that it would almost be impossible to develop unit pricing unless the unit price reaches such a high price point that it will cover almost any given situation. If this is true doen't that raise an issue with being competetive or is that moot for a company at this level? Obviously it is not impossible to stucture this as you and others have and continue to develop this.
I appreciate the manner in which you approach and address issues here being non-argumentive and observing and absorbing. I was browsing around your site(s) last nite. You're like a one man think tank!! I appreciate intelligent people; I happened to be married to a scientist.
Keep up the good work!
Eric
Boy did you start something...........
I guess from my viewpoint I see that there is as many ways to estimating as there is to installing crown mould <G> (whiich I did this morning in the ensuite !!)
No doubt a computer using excel would be faster, changes and addition wise, than a legal pad (lots of eraser marks and re-calculating) This is based on a basic understanding of computers. The real beauty is that you can then EASILY reconcile the job by putting ACTUALS to the estimate. THIs I do on a weekly basis- it is critical to the success of any business and ours is no exception. I use a bookkeeper to enter all the bills into accounting software and the program will tell me how each job is progressing because all the information can be generated on a report monthly. (repeat-I am NOT a big business !!) I find this system really keeps an eye on things. I like using a bookkeeper (I don't spend the weekend entering data HOPING it all goes in the right spot- I spend my weekend talking on this board...<G>) because then she does the gov't stuff, workmens comp, entering data etc WITHOUT me worrying about the proper entries, filing deadlines. I focus on building my business and making sure it profitable for me and my employee, and spending time with my family (and doing stuff around the house!!) Yes it does cost $ (about $ 75/ mth) but it is worth it in the long run for me and my "circle" just got bigger because she does a lot of work for other business owners.
In closing there are many ways to screw up both in excel and legal pad or an estimating software- what's your comfort level, and what's your experience? I use excel- doesn't make me right NOR wrong, but I would recommend to anyone in this business to use a basic program like excel to track your actuals vs. estimate, and to hire someone to teach you the basics if you can't learn it yourself. For a read on one of my personal experiences read 31634.1 ( I learned the hard way!!)
First we get good- then we get fast !
tickyboy-"Boy did you start something..........." Ahh I'm really just trying to get some better perspective on what my peers think about all things. This time it was about estimating. But it is a subject that isn't really discussed much at all. I can remember as a kid (in my twenties) asking questions all the time related to estimating and NEVER getting any answers. I used to think maybe it was all my bosses protecting their trade secrets while I now look back and think it was them protecting the fact that they didn't have any real methods, techniques, or data.
An article in the Journal of Construction Accounting & Taxation entitled Ten Most Common Causes of Construction Contractor Failures had Poor estimating and job costing on the list
"I use a bookkeeper to enter all the bills into accounting software and the program will tell me how each job is progressing because all the information can be generated on a report monthly. (repeat-I am NOT a big business !!)" Hey I'm not a big business either. It is perhaps even more important for the small operation to do just those things you (and that article) mentioned and develop the methodology because for one thing the shock of an estimate or two gone wrong could sink the small operation and not getting a system down pat while your small will strangle a business if it does try to grow.
"I would recommend to anyone in this business to use a basic program like excel to track your actuals vs. estimate, and to hire someone to teach you the basics if you can't learn it yourself. " Agreed that is really smart/great advice.
"For a read on one of my personal experiences read 31634.1 ( I learned the hard way!!) " That's a great story I had a similar experience ages ago I'll have to tell you about sometime
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Now my question to the crowd ...
just had a thought while reading thru .. something Stan said gave me an idea ...
might be right ... might be wrong.
Seems to be 2 lines of thought here ... neither one right or wrong ...
Basically ... Pro-comptuer .... Not so pro-computer.
Not sure if this flies ...
But is there a relationship on the computer or no positions ..
That could relate to "hands on carpentry" work.
Not sure about Jerrald .. but I have the assumption that Mike stand back and has a guy or two he trusts to do his fine and detailed work.
Stan doesn't. I don't.
I have an inclination about some others ....
Maybe me and Stan( and all the other non-computer guys) don't trust the computer just as we don;t trust someone else to make do that final finish carpentry that has our names attached to it?
What got me thinking was Stan saying after the stairs and his family ... not much time left. I feel the same way ... too much filling my life to learn a new trick ...
Like typing for real.
I'd rather work on my hand cut dovetails .....
JeffBuck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
jeff... yes.. i do have an ace in the field.. if i let him , he'd spend forever on the details.. ..but anyways.. i can trust him not to screw it up.. or at least to fix anything we do screw up..
i'd really like to be out there doing the work.. but i can get guys to do that ... what i can't get yet is someone to do the design/estimating/ pricing/ ordering/billing/sales/complaints..
did you talk to cathy about moving to Rhode Island yet ?Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
we figured we'd take a little vacation up there this summer ... late summer ... maybe Aug?
You free then?
BTW ... what job site are we all gonna tour?
Oh yeah ... do me some leg work first ... have a list of cheap local realestate for us to check out.
Jeff
Buck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
cheap & local don't go in the same sentence...but i'll do my bestMike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
A few thoughts come to mind...
There is always more than one way to skin a cat.
Can't teach an old dog new tricks.
OK, enough cats and dogs. I think it boils down to what you feel comfortable with. As Firebird said he does everything in his head. You are more computer savvy and you like the fact that the puter can crunch a lot of numbers for you in no time. The thing with computer is you get what you put in. So given the same situation what you put in that is different from the next guy is an art, the computer just do the science part for both of you.
So what's question 3?
Question 3: How Did You Learn To Estimate?
Was it picking up hints and tricks from an old boss (did that a little), a happy hour conversation in a tavern with other "contractors" (that was one of my first learning experiences and I found getting rid of the thinking I picked up there was also one of my first un-learning experiences), reading books ( the books I learned from are unfortunately no mostly out of print), studying other companies?????
What was you experience like trying to learn how to estimate?
What did you learn that was wrong?
What did you learn that was right?
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Experience. That and being anal helps.
In a past life I had to plan a 14 million dollar outage for one of the largest nuke plants in the northeast. I spent 6 months going over every operation and maintenance task, planning, scheduling, estimating what it would take and how long to do everything from a small valve repair (of 4,000 done) to a complete 10 year ISI inspection of the reacor vessel, head and internals. Turns out I didn't do so well, because we finished 4 million under budget, and I was burnt out from the months of (no OT) 16 hour days. (Quit the company 2 years later after 15 years.)
So I know how to break operations/maintenance tasks down into their component parts. (I also wrote emergency procedures, so often my estimates look like simple procedures.)
And, oh yeah, experience will keep you in the black.
I never met a tool I didn't like!
You're addin' questions faster than I can write replies....lol!
I learned through a combination of things:
- 4 years in college studying construction management
- Working for an array of contractors who estimated every which way- from stick-by-stick takeoff to the "well, how much do I need to make this month?" method.
- From spending time around construction since I was about 10, helping Dad, neighbors, etc.- learned a lot there- like my current foul-mouthed vocabulary....lol.
- And most of all from asking questions. I've found that the saying about "the only stupid question is the one that isn't asked" is true. I've learned tons that way.
What've I learned that was wrong? That most contractors haven't a clue how to properly price a job. They stumble along, winning on some, losing on others, and hoping the winners outweigh the losers.
What've I learned that was right? That you don't need to count every nail, screw, and roll of drywall tape to be successful in producing accurate estimates. Cover the big stuff, account for the small stuff with some gut feel, and everything will work out in the end.
Bob
Ahhh,...Ya know, I didn't want to get into the follow ups and detail questions so soon but Tomchark was asking so I threw (some of) them out there.
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What Bob said in reply 14.
And use big round numbers. Trial and error. Database has got to start somewhere in order to progress to where it will actually produce accurate numbers.
I have a client right now who knows that I am thinking about moving out of the area.
They can't throw money at me fast enough, lots of projects all of a sudden.
Win some loose some. I can't think that Excell or any other software is going to make THAT big of a difference. Does it? How about some feedback now that the thread is hot?
Eric
Excel WILL make that big of a difference- catch jsut one math error with it, and you're "difference" can be pretty big.
I can type faster than I can write, and once I "write" the number into Excel, the calculations are done- no punching the numbers into the calculator and writing down the results.
As as far as being "out of the league", I estimate projects as small as $2500 and as large as $400 million. Just because I'm using the process on larger jobs doesn't mean its' out of anyone's league- I use the same system for a $2500 siding estimate. Actually, when ya think about it, I think it's more of a positive that Excel works for such large projects- if it can work on them, why wouldn't it work on a bath remodel, right?
Bob
Question 4: Do You Estimate The Labor and Materials Requirements Separately or Combined As Single Line Items?
Do you figure out the labor requirements ( the time the tasks will take) separately from the materials or do you develop Unit Costs that combine the two and then use them. For instance:
Labor & Material Figured Separately
Task
Labor Hrs
Set-Up Job File
3.00
Hang 4 Pre-Hung Int. Double French Doors
3.36
Hang 2 Pre-Hung Int. Doors
1.68
Install 70 LF interior door architrave trim
4.34
Install 68 LF pattern base-finger-joint pine
2.58
Install 68 LF chair rail-paint-grade pine
2.58
Install 68 LF crown mold-paint-grade pine
3.13
Total Labor Hours
20.70
and
Materials
Unit Cost
Qty
Total
Pre-Hung Int. Double French Door
$960.93
4
$3843.72
Pre-Hung Int. Pine 6 Panel Door 3'-0"x6'-8"
314.21
2
$628.43
Builtup Door Architrave Molding
$5.30
70
$371.00
8" Pattern base molding-finger-joint pine
$2.36
68
$160.48
3-1/2" chair rail-paint-grade pine
$1.65
68
$112.20
4-1/2" crown mold-paint-grade pine
$2.47
68
$167.96
Total Materials
$5283.79
or
As Unit Costs
Description
Qty
Unit
LaborHrs
Materials
Set-Up Job File
3
Ea.
3.00
Pre-Hung Int. Double French Door 15 Lite 3'-0"x6'-8"
4
Ea.
3.36
$3843.72
Pre-Hung Int. Pine 6 Panel Door 3'-0"x6'-8"
2
Ea.
1.68
$628.43
Install interior architrave-high grade
70
LF
4.34
$371.00
Install 8" pattern base-finger-joint pine
68
LF
2.58
$160.48
Install 3-1/2" chair rail-paint-grade pine
68
LF
2.58
$112.20
Install 4-1/2" crown mold-paint-grade pine
68
LF
3.13
$167.96
20.70
$5283.79
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See I missed question #3 while having my dinner. How many questions do we have coming anyway? I don't want to be here all night.
Your question #4, you are just combining two tables into one. This can be done easily one way or the other in a computer. Are you asking which is better? Or which do we prefer? You still have to go through them separately to create the tables so there is no time saved but putting them together would give a cross reference so you can double check.
Tomchark (et al) this is all part of an effort I'm making to find out what really makes contractors tick. I actually have tons of questions and more subjects to explore. I just don't want to move along too fast and choke off responses to the initial question from people who haven't even checked in to find this discussion.
Regarding Question #4: Do You Estimate The Labor and Materials Requirements Separately or Combined As Single Line Items?
"This can be done easily one way or the other in a computer." Well yeah but if you look at the hard copy paper estimating forms that you can get from RS Means and other suppliers they are laid out as unit cost line items too.
"Are you asking which is better?" Well I certainly have my own opinions on which format is better but yeah, I am asking to get an idea of what other contractors do and why.
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Honestly Jerrald, are you writing a book?
Honestly Jerrald, are you writing a book?
Uh ohh.....I think they've caught on to you.....lol.
Jerrald: When I do an estimate for a stairway...I usually meet with the client at the jobsite or in their office. I found out what style and species of materials they want...then its off to my office.....which is a bar stool...pad of paper...and a calculator. I estimate the number of days for the stairway and multiply that by my magic number of dollars per day that keeps me in business.
I then add my material cost and always add at least 50% to that.
If there are uncertainties....I add more days and more costs.
My type of bidding is far more simpler to just put pencil to paper and go by feel. I could never trust a program to tell me what to bid. I have a feel for my business and none for computers.
Here are a few scenarios that I never will be able to tell a computer how much to adjust a price....its all by feel....
There are some personal variables that influence my bidding. The closer I get to being saturated with work..the higher my bids go. The ol "supply and demand" theory
Building a stairway that involves "trying" new techniques. I am very conservative here. If the stairway is something I never have tried.....then I bid in training time. If they want me to build this stairway that I dont have experience on...then the bid is going to allow for me getting experience.
To keep my interest "up"......I even allow a "toy" allowance ....aka....."gyrocopter fund" ..... :) I feel it is one of my necessary "bennies"....and it has kept me pursuing my lifelong passion of things that climb and twist...stairs and gyrocopters.. :)
I also add a minor tool upkeep into this to cover sawblades..etc.
Anyway....long story short....my pencil and pad method usually has me calling my client in about an hour. This method has never let me down... Sure....I have had stairs that cost me more time and material than estimated...but my simple estimating method has enough "cushion" that I have never lost money on a job yet.
I realize that I am in a slightly different kind of business....its a very laid back type of atmosphere...I bid it that way. I would rather turn out fewer stairways in a year and build them at a casual pace...than go at them in my shop like I am "killing snakes".
I just am afraid a computer program would have me in the "killing snakes" mode. Mainly because I dont think anyone could program these variables into it.
What is wrong with this method? Plenty.....if I were bidding larger jobs. I bid stairways with a blunt pencil... if I were in a more complex bidding operation such as bidding a whole house....I would price myself out of work using such a blunt pencil. I would just have too many "uncertainties" to deal with.
But....all I build is stairways...and if there is one thing I have learned in life...if something is working for me...dont change it.
Edited 1/22/2004 7:15:39 AM ET by Stan Foster
Edited 1/22/2004 7:33:21 AM ET by Stan Foster
Stan a couple of questions for ya. When you say "I found out what style and species of materials they want...then its off to my office.....which is a bar stool...pad of paper...and a calculator." Do you keep a record (database) of you material costs or do you call for prices with every project?
And when you say "I then add my material cost and always add at least 50% to that." What is that 50% intended to cover? The costs of getting the materials? Or something else?
"My type of bidding is far more simpler to just put pencil to paper and go by feel. I could never trust a program to tell me what to bid. I have a feel for my business and none for computers." Okay to me it sounds like your saying estimating is an Art (at least the way you practice it. But why can't the feeling you have be quantified and then that information put into a program and used over and over again (aside from you reasoning that you just don't get computers)?
What are the things that in your opinion affect the costs (in particular the labor costs) of a stair? The number of steps? The tightness of the radius? Etc? What do you think the factors are?
Here's a off topic aside I think you'll find amusing that happened to me the other day (off topic with regard to estimationg but on topic about stairs). I went down to the mail box to pick up the mail the other day and discovered this 6"x8" inviting me to advertise in the new Westchester Magazine special issue Home & Garden Magazine "An Elegant New Publication. I look at the card and think nice for a second and then all of a sudden it hits me. Hey that's one of my projects, that's one of my railings!
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Jerrald: First of all ....my material cost is about as simple as it gets. Its one page stating my costs per lineal foot of most species of 1 x 8...1 x 12....5/4 x 12.....etc.
I bid a stairway yesteday. Enroute home from the jobsite measure...I built it on paper breaking it down in parts. I pulled up to my shop...sat on my bar stool...and had the material cost added up in two minutes. What took me the longest....about 20 minutes....was doing my gut input of all the special stuff I would have to do on this unuique stairway. I will never be smart enough to be able to tell a computer program to in return tell me how long it will take Stan to do something he has never done. I just dont see how that can be done.
Most of my stairs are different. If I had a computer telling me it will take 6 hours to wrap a stringer around an elliptical form.......it may take 16 hours the first time...but after I have done several....it may only take say 3 hours. I have an instant snapshop stored in my head as to what my abilities are for the task at hand. If I dont have any or little experience doing this task..then my gut feeling comes into play and I am very confident with the information it gives me...and its always on the conservative side.
Jerrald.....If I was running a big crew...sure...I would have to stay on top of an average as I would have to bid with a sharp pencil to keep them busy...and keep me in the black.
But in my case...I am just a little man...no employees...and I can literally pick and choose what stairs I have time for.
Many a time..I come across a stairway that I have done many times....and can quote a price with only ten seconds of thought.
But many of these stairs I bid have one small detail that can take longer than building a whole straight flight of stairs. The devil is in the details. They will kill your profit if you dont have a feel for it.
Sure.....after doing say my first elliptical...I could program the computer to tell me to figure two more days in the bid....but there are so many variables that I NEVER could trust a program to set my price.
Variables that cant be allowed for? at least I cant....
1. How many projects are going on in my shop at the present time. If I have just one project going...I can give it my undivided attention. I am the most efficient when I am staying on one job and getting the rythym going. A LOT can be said about this in sports...business..and my stairbuilding. EXAMPLE....I do log hours on my stairways. I have built very similar stairways during different levels of activity in my shop. If all I have at hand is to start in and completely build one stairway from start to finish...I can figure on saving 2-3 days on it rather than if I were working on it a few hours here...a few hours there. In short...my bids reflect what activity and back and forth distractions I will be having. I simply add more time to the same stairway if it is being built with one other.....even more time if I have 2 others going...etc.
2. I always ask the client what my window of time is for delivering his/her stairway. This changes my costs...as sometimes it takes offering my suppliers a "carrot" bonus if you will if they produce the material by such and such a date. I have to call ahead to see if this is an option. My program would not do that.
3. Occasionally I build for what I call extremely picky clients. The product I deliver has to be built out of extra select material and assembled at a level higher than usually practical. I always try to do a nice job...but within practical reason. But...occasionally I have to step it up ...or I will be in trouble. This boils down to extra time selecting "select" materials and even more time executing a fine finished product. There are a few contractors I deal with that each has their own level of acceptance. Another example......I used to build hand made Kentucky longrifles from scratch. Mostly handwork. All the inlays. butt plate..nose caps....flintlock had to be inlayed with an exacto knife...small chisels....scrapers....etc. Bringing the maple to an exorberant finish takes hours and hours on just a small piece of wood. WHY? The clients that these are for look at them with their eye about as close as they can get...following all the inlays....looking for NOTHING but wood to metal....and not god forbid...putty. MY point? Almost all my stairways have taken far less time to build than the quickest rifle I have turned out. In fact.....one thing I have learned building rifles is that each one takes longer. Try explaining that to a computer program. As I gained experience building these rifles...I pushed myself to even finer scrutiny...and this takes time. If I had to build a whole stairway with the same detail...and MAYBE I will run across such a client someday....then I would have to bid it off the charts of anything I have ever done. I would only trust my gut for that.
4. My onsite work can be smooth as glass...or it can take twice as long as expected. If it is climbing with subs...everybody sharing one cord..etc...guys climbing over you constantly.....it makes a big difference. I have a feel for each contractor and how he supplies electrical ...how he schedules his subs..etc. I ask a few questions and get a feel for what to expect. I would not know how to tell a program what to tell me.
Jerrald: I could go on with several other examples...but I have typed way too much now. :) Please.......I am not knocking your program for what you use it for so successfully. I just have too unusual of circumstances and I am too small to rely on a program that I am not smart enough to supply it with the information needed to give me all the above and more that my gut has supplied successfully all these years.
Like I said in another post...my methods would fail me on a large project such a unique home....I would price myself out of business as I am too cautious. But....I am not doing those type of jobs.
Edited 1/24/2004 9:26:40 AM ET by Stan Foster
stan.. you can do all of things you described... only faster and easier.. if you pull a computer screen over to your bar stool..
just because you are using a computer doesn't mean you can't do it exactly the same way if you organize it on a template.. except you ALSO get the following advantages
let's say you organize your legal pad this way..
labor........materials.... subs....equipment
you do use subs.. i've seen pics of you with 10 guys carrying a stair into a mcmansion.... and your special equip. may be just for that one particular job... ok
anyways.. labor
measure... stan... 4 hrsx rate = (line item)
patterns: build curved wall mockup... stan .... 3 days 24 hrs x rate = (line item)
laminate outside stringer: stan 3 days 24 hrs x rate = (line item )
treads, pattern... stan 4 hrs x rate = (line item )
yada yada yada... BUT the computer is multiplying the line items and adding the columns.. AND.. it's always AMAZING how each job repeats previous jobs..
AND.. it's always amazing how easy it is to skip a step.. or make a minor error.. or a major error
you make the computer template think EXACTLY like you think.. but it doesn't screw up the little things..
also.. you put each job in a folder... in your 2003 JOBs folder.. or your 2004 JOBS folder..
and you can store DIGITAL pics of your jobs and special conditions in THAT job folder..
everything pertaining to that job can go in that folder.. diary.. order forms.. special materials...material invoices..Breaktime photos.......
the whole thing gets smoother and smoother the more you use it.. you can still keep the legal pad right there.. but you'll probably use it for writing down your wife's "honey do " lists.... ( then you can misplace it easier)..
what i've found .. is the computer makes it easier , faster, more accurate, and more satisfying than the legal pad i started with..it doesn't have to change anything in the way you do it now... just make it better
but hey, whadda i no?
i've never built a curved stair or a gyrocopter... but oneadesedays
Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
Mike: You make some good points....I just think I have such variables...that I would take longer inputting all this info into the computer. Each job is different for me.
My labor is real easy. I throw $20 at each guy to come to my shop....spend ten minutes to lift it on the trailor. Some stairs take 4...some ...12 guys. Anyway....I do simplify this somewhat. I always either plug in $100 or $200 to get the stairs loaded.
I build an average of only 12 stairs a year. I NEVER take an hour for an estimate....but if I did....thats 12 hours total bidding time.....in a year....If you knew me........I would be poking around on the keyboard far longer than that...I putting in information that changes like the weather.
Call me having a "mindset" as well....I wouldnt argue...thats another reason it will never work for me.
We are all wired very differently. Myself.....I thrive on the math in a stairway...and how to physically make wood conform to the desired plan. I feel I have somewhat of a grasp for this...but next to zero on letting a program tell me how long it should take.
I am the same way when I draw my stairs on my computer. I DO NOT want a program that all I have to do is punch some numbers in...and up comes a 3-d image that I can rotate...look under and so on. I just want a line by line drawing that I have to tell the computer how long and at what angle....etc. The reason? Because I will have to go do the same in "full scale" in my shop. I may be a dinosaur operation...but it gives me a lot of satisfaction. I talked to a guy at a huge stair hatchery in Chicago one day. He was routing out some stair stringers that a computer program did all the figuring for him. He was able to tell the computer what to do...but he didnt have a clue how to personally layout this stringer...and then route it out. I will always prefer the slow and know method...anyday.
Now to rant on a slightly off topic..but yet related....
I just am real world savvy and not computer friendly. On my favorite topic...flying gyrocopters...thats another example. I was at my gyrcopter club meeting last night trying to fly a gyrcopter simulator program. I could not fly it.. but then some young members could. These guys would not last 30 seconds in a real gyrocopter until they got the "feel" of it. That "feel" comes from actual experience...and not the zero feedback a computer joystick gives you. Sure...with enough time and input....controls could be made to feel "real" but it would take a lot longer than actually going out and doing it in a real gyro.
Thats kind of my situation....I can "real" world input to my notepad quicker than I would even begin to know how to tell a program what to tell me on the next job.
MIke...and Jerrald...please remember that I have said a couple of times that my way would not work for me on large projects. I have no doubt your programs have you fine focused on your bids. My way would price me out.
Edited 1/24/2004 10:58:11 AM ET by Stan Foster
Stan,
You have said many times that your operation is laid back. I think your system is probably the best one for you at this time. Mike's suggestions are good if you are interested in building a foundation for computer apps, but from what I gather you are not interested. A spreadsheet could save you some headaches in billing, records, etc... but it will also make some while learning it.
I think you have a unique situation. You have a niche that has very little competition (if any). I would guess that you could increase your bids by 15% just to see what happens, and your closing ratio would not change. Unfortunately, this cannot be said for many others. I think this forum represents the range of the spectrum. Some produce a commodity and some have a high degree of differentiation. I bet if Tim Mooney decided that he would start charging $1.10² for hanging and finishing instead of $1.05/ft² he would go hungry. For those on the low side of the spectrum, accurate estimating techniques are a must.
Another side of the discussion is the guys who have huge projects (huge not necessarily in sq. ft. or $$$, but in complexity). Mike Smith will take a project from demo to punch out. I would think he would spend alot of time on a stick method just because he has to keep track of 1,000 sticks, to your 10. Especially when estimating to submit a bid, anything that will save time is golden.
I don't think you should change anything. I have a feeling that you are extremely happy, both financially and with pace of life/work. If it's working for you, than great. Your slower pace might even be some of the allure to your customers ("no CAD operated CNC work went into these stairs, they were hand-built by a craftsman in a shop in his back yard").
For those who have to fight to stay above the water, then I think a more comprehensive estimating process would be a boon.
Jon Blakemore
Jon: You said it better than I. I would need a program if I were bidding a complex project and had lots of competition. I totally agree with what you said.
Stan maybe I should clarify why I'm asking all the questions I am of you and others too I guess.
"I build an average of only 12 stairs a year. I NEVER take an hour for an estimate....but if I did....thats 12 hours total bidding time.....in a year....If you knew me........I would be poking around on the keyboard far longer than that...I putting in information that changes like the weather."
If your spending 12 total hours bidding you projects year round with a yellow legal pad (and your closing on 100% pf your projects, 12 for 12?) then you very obviously don't need to computerize and automate your estimating procedures to improve your business. Taking that 12 total hours and reducing it to two would probably on translate to a .005% improvement to your bottom line. Your a lot like that guy I mentioned in post #x. There are probably other areas of your operation where you would be better off exploring ways to improve your business processes that would show up on your bottom line (and free up more time for you to build helicopters). I think your situation sounds a lot like the spec builder I mentioned in msg#39030.62 who just didn't need computerized estimating.
However the reason I AM INTERESTED in learning what your approach to estimating stair project is twofold. I'm interested in comparing you method and analysis to ours (we do stairs, railings, and other architectural woodwork for those readers that weren't aware of that) and I like working with other contractors developing methods for them to help estimate projects so your viewpoint and methods help in that regard too.
Here's and observation I have too. I look at the photos of you helicopter hobby and the first thing that comes to mind is something to the effect of "Geez I could never do that". Do you think that's a true accurate accessment? On second glance I don't think so. It may take a little while for me to figure out what it all about but I'm pretty sure I could eventually figure it out. There's a great line from Richard Bach's book Illusions View Imagethat captures my thinking around that "Argue for your limitations and sure enough they're yours." (by the way if you are from the mid-west and like flying around in the sky and you haven't read Illusions you missing out on something. On the one hand it's a story about these two guys flying around biplanes barnstorming through the midwest while on the other hand it's about a lot lot more than that. It's very short small book but full of great stuff).
I think most of the time most people devote tons of energy to arguing for their limitations. People say they can't do this or that and they are correct and I generally don't argue with them but this time I will. If you can build a helicopter and curved stairs you could certainly learn to use a computer better. It just mike take a little bit of time and maybe that more time than you want to devote to it right now. It is just a "mindset" you have chosen. I have the same attitude about snow boarding. I been skiing since I learned to walk and I always had a great feel for balance. But I have no intentions of making an a$$ of myself for a few days out there on a snow board learning how to do it (even though I know deep down I could pick it quickly).
Computer or no computer you do have a methodology for pricing that can be looked at and analyzed so that it can be translated and transferred on to others. On of the other think I keep on saying regarding estimating is:
" I think it funny at times you can ask a question here like "How to you frame, sheath, and shingle in slate a conical roof that tilts like a Santa's hat?" and a score of people will join in and give you their suggestions, methods, framing calculations, and production techniques (good building is really just good math, trig, and calculus) more but no one can seem to tell you how to do the most important math problem involved (meaning how to estimate a project)."
"We are all wired very differently. Myself.....I thrive on the math in a stairway...and how to physically make wood conform to the desired plan. I feel I have somewhat of a grasp for this...but next to zero on letting a program tell me how long it should take." It still all just about math (and logic) though. We are wired differently though I do agree on that. I love the math and geometry that goes into figuring out a stairs and railing and other building problems but in a case of something that' similar to thinking "been there, done that" I went on to explore the mathematical relationships and links that existed in estimating and pricing methods too. I get enormous satisfaction out of successfully deconstructing processes to see how they work and what the time to tasks relationships are. I just love figuring things out.
"MIke...and Jerrald...please remember that I have said a couple of times that my way would not work for me on large projects. I have no doubt your programs have you fine focused on your bids. My way would price me out." Oh I don't know about that at all. Pricing is NOT Estimating but that's another topic all together. The difference is I been able to hand off estimating to others since I codified what we were doing and built it into a system and methodology. If I wanted to I could have someone else estimate the project and I could then devote myself to just working hands on the projects if I wanted to. That's a difference
That's my rant. How'd I do?
[PS a little touch of irony relating in a way to your clubs gyrcopter simulator program. I think you might characterize me as something of a computer geek? Maybe? Well, I really suck at video games. It embarrassing getting whooped at the stuff by kids under ten.]
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Jerrald: Let me clarify myself...I build about 12 stairs a year....maybe 15 if some are simpler ones. Yes...I do bid on more than that...but I land over half of the stairs that come my way...so my bidding time is still negligible.
Building the gyrocopter is just like stairs...its nothing but a bunch of simple steps....no pun. I never think anything I have done has any individual step that is complex. Some of the projects I get involved in have a bunch of simple steps that when all added together make a complex project....but again...everything I do can be broken down in simple parts.
When I started on the gyrocopter...I thought it was a bit much...especially when it is sitting in my stairshop causing me to wonder over to it every once in a while. But I would take each step with building it a step at a time...and eventually after many...many hours of work and concentration....I saw progress.
I basically think everyone has their little niches...my main ones are stairbuilding and flying gyrocopters. Computers is not one of my niches.
If you really knew me and how I am wired....my passion for my family...stairways and gyrocopters coming in second and third....leaves almost no energy or passion to pursue anything else. I am just about as content as can be...and I am slow to change. Sure....I could get get more efficient...hire a few guys...and I know I would make more money. I also know I would not be as happy with all this extra pressure.
Guys like you just have a nak for number crunching and managing people. Thats not me...but I really respect the talent you have acquired.
Jerrald....again....I am amazed at your grasp of numbers relating to bidding......my operation is just working quite well for me as it is. My accountant says I have an extremely high percentage of net to gross. I have an extremely low overhead....and thus I have some money for toys. My wife helps me about one day a week...otherwise she is a home maker. I started from nothing and that was probably my best teacher of how to be efficient.
But...I always have said that stairbuilding is a weird profession. I dont know what else I could do that I could make a living at so easy. I am very laid back...I do not go at it like I am killing snakes....I like it that way.
I am not very good at conveying my thoughts properly by typing them.....so I wont try to explain my situation much. All I know is it works pervectly for me,,but probably would not for others.
Jerrald...your posts are extremely interesting....sometimes I find myself tilting my head like the "RCA dog" trying to take in what you are so eliquently explaining. When I get that way..and my eyes start glazing over....I just blink and move on.....its just the way I am wired. :)
Jerrald: You asked if I think anyone could build a gyrocopter. My answer is...absolutely...
If someone is interested enough..and aware that everything has to be right...knowing full well that the consequences could be fatal if not...then yes....anyone can study the manuals...get on the forums....talk to experts...and this gleaning of information will see them through.
Jerrald...back to my stair bidding. I have built enough stairways...that I can almost bid them over the phone just by asking the materials...details etc. without even getting a pencil out. I have price ranges engrained in my brain....that I can pigeon hole the stairway almost instantly in say...a $12-14 thousand range....$15 to $18000 range....or even over $20 thousand.
My pad and pencil will then quickly fine tune these ranges somewheres between the initial "gut feeling" ranges.
Most of my stairs are under $20 thousand....but I have just finished a $37 thousand stairway. I have some upcoming projects that are over $50 thousand...but again..most of my stairs are less than 20 thousand.
My most expensive one was $136 thousand. I would ONLY trust my pad and pencil to that particular project...because I had to bid it very conservatively as any errors were astronomical. The balusters cost me $121 each,,,the newels were over $1100 each. Enkeboll parts out of California. I am just way too small an operation to trust my inept programming of some software that could bankrupt me if I were wrong. I ended up taking less time than I estimated and the parts were pretty close. However...I made sure that I didnt have too many $121 dollar balusters left over. I did have one...and it is proudly on display in my shop.
Oh I get where your coming from Stan and I am not trying to sell you on using computers more but I am going to pick you brain over the coming weeks and months for what all your "simple steps" in you process are because as I was inferring above I think that's incredibly valuable stuff for both the forum members here and the contractors I consult with. Just so you know too I also try and drag stuff out of Armin and the other trade specialties around here too because I know it in there or out there somewhere to be harvested and learned from and then spread around to others. I got in to Frenchy a little bit a while back regrading timberframing and now I pegged Jack W (aka Got Pegs?) as a timberframer I plan to cull some information out of now too.
"I am just about as content as can be...and I am slow to change."On the one hand I'm pretty content and I am certainly enjoying myself but there is also a restlessness to figure out and learn more that really drives me. The more I learn in life the better I know what I don't know and the creative tension between what I know and what I don't know pulls me all the time
As for change I will change in a heart beat at times. Sometimes that drives the people I know nuts and with others that's what they like and appreciate about me. I had an old girlfriend once say I was two of the best men she ever went out with.
"Sure....I could get get more efficient...hire a few guys..." That wouldn't necessarily make you more efficient and in fact most of the time I think it (hiring a few guys) makes you more inefficient until you redesign the operation to work under the new configuration.
"
I am not very good at conveying my thoughts properly by typing them....." I wouldn't say that at all I certainly think I recognize and understand your motivation as do others here too. In fact I think your very good at it.
"Jerrald...back to my stair bidding. I have built enough stairways...that I can almost bid them over the phone just by asking the materials...details etc." To tell ya the truth I can do that too but I had to sort out my thinking and methods so I could teach others to do it too. I'll look at something and say 22K and then go into my system and enter the units and quantities and it will come out to $21,810 and I grin a little to myself whenever that happens.
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Jerrald: Another clarification...when I said I was content..I am meaning it in a way that I am always looking for and working on new techniques in my shop. I am content with my learning curve. I THRIVE on projects that are completely different that will require me to dig deeper and some how figure out a way to accomplish the task in a craftsman like manner.
This is where I feel I hit a brick wall with trusting a program to tell me how long it will take Stan to do something he hasnt done. The way I am wired...I direct all my energies towards the areas I have "control" over. Computers is not one of those areas. The one exception is my drawing program that I "had" to learn years ago. I soon discovered that I could go measure a foyer...give the customer a quick look on how their stairway would look...and then go from there. Whatever time I had spent on these drawings were also put back into the bid.
So...I just sit down on these type of projects...and break it down into half day estimates. I even throw in experimenting time so as I can go out and have fun learning how to do something different.
A perfect example is the 12 foot spiral I am presently working on in my shop. I will post pictures Wed night on it. I have built many of these...but the first one I bid in 2-3 days just experimenting with jigs etc to route the column. I was unsure how long the railing would take...so a couple more days were added. The treads and tread supports were just basic stuff...so no surprises there. So....the one I am building now does not have these extra days bid into it for training....but it does have a profiled handrail that is over 22 feet long. I am anticipating extra trouble getting these profiled laminates to submit to my cylindrical form. I am planning on gluing this handrail in three different glue ups so as I wont lose control of it. I have bid back in a couple of days extra for just messing with some new clamping methods. This part is a catalyst for me. l love challenges.....but I bid in training time for these challenges.
This keeps me in my laid back mode and I still get goosebumps over my occupation. I turned 50 yesterday and I could not wait to get to my stairshop and work on the oak spiral. I was having so much fun that I didnt even treat myself to working on my gyrocopter like I had promised myself. My wife asked me what I got done on my gyro when I came home..and she wasnt surprised that I "worked" all day on my stairway. She always tells people I am just down there playing instead of working. Its not all play....but I do enjoy even the "work" part of it.
Stan Foster - "This is where I feel I hit a brick wall with trusting a program to tell me how long it will take Stan to do something he hasnt done. "
Well I don't think any program can ever do that but at least 95% of the individual tasks, processes or procedures that we do we've done before. On a three story switch back stair I don't want to spend any time at all figuring out what I should charge for fabricating the treads, or assembling the stair carriages, or fabricating the railing parts. We done that over and over. I just want to look those figures and numbers up.
I want to spend my time thinking about the logistics of how we are going to get the necessary steel work for the landing platforms into place and then get the assembled stairs into the shaftway.
The computerized database keeps records the records of the procedures we done before so I don't have to keep those number in my head. (Did I mention here the other day how I really only have two phone numbers committed to memory?) Also with having estimating stairs systematized (or other architectural woodwork for that matter) I can also then hand off the estimating of the standard tasks to others and deal with just the more complicated risky or new procedures.
"So...I just sit down on these type of projects...and break it down into half day estimates. I even throw in experimenting time so as I can go out and have fun learning how to do something different. " We do that too we plan and budget for R&D on new techniques and procedures. That's also part of what I see as "my job" too.
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What've I learned that was wrong? That most contractors haven't a clue how to properly price a job. They stumble along, winning on some, losing on others, and hoping the winners outweigh the losers.
Reminds me of a friend who likes to say; "We may lose money on every job, but we try to make up for it in volume."
Thanks, all, for an informative post. I'm sitting here trying to put together an estimate for my own home that I'm going to build. I'm using Excel and all the while thinking: There has to be a better way than me creating my own software and trying to think of every single nail and screw that I and the subs will need. But I like this method better than the estimating software and websites I've seen so far (the free and cheap stuff, I can't afford the $6000 stuff mentioned, and no one in this post seems to reccomend software, it's either yellow pad or Excel).
Does anyone have a sample estimate, using Excel, that they would be willing to post or email that I could use for my house...? Thanks for all the good info- John
TOMCHARK (do you pronounce Chark "Shark"? That got a kool interesting ring to it.) Regarding Question 4: Do You Estimate The Labor and Materials Requirements Separately or Combined As Single Line Items? and your reply 'you are just combining two tables into one." I think what I was hoping or trying to get at was that "relation-ality" (not a real word but I'm trying to make a point) of table where the two are combined is that the data is then "related". The task of "Pre-Hung Int. Door" is tied to a Labor Hour value and a Material Cost Value (for Pine 6 Panel Door 3'-0"x6'-8"). That relationship in an of itself is valuable. That same Labor Hour value for hanging a "Pre-Hung Int. Door" could also be tied (linked to) a cost for a much cheaper "Hollow Core Luan 3'-0"x6'-8" door" or to a much more expensive "6 Panel Door 3'-0"x6'-8" Cherry Door". But if you one day decide you want to change the Labor Hour value for hanging "Pre-Hung Int. Door" from .842 to .925 Labor Hours with the second method you can (if you link the data correctly) change that one value in place (perhaps the Pine door) and it will change line item the value for the Luan and Cherry door two where if you are pricing them all separately all over the place you have to change them all individually. Does that make sense? By looking at them as two separate groups you lose the potential power of the relationship (and that's one thing a yellow legal pad certainly doesn't have).
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TOMCHARK (do you pronounce Chark "Shark"? That got a kool interesting ring to it.)
My brother's name is Lorne. Kool interesting ring? Thanks. It's pronounced with a hard "ch" as in "chart".
So now I think we can come to the conclusion that estimating is both an art and a science, experience and gut feeling, however you want to lump them together. As you can see the % distribution between art and science is all over the map as far as what we have seen so far. Which I think should be the case. Estimating is a process as far as I am concerned, it is not an action. It is an ongoing process. You estimate, with whatever means you have, get the job done, reconcile, move on hoping that you come out wiser and more efficient the next time around. And I do think that in most cases some kind of computer program will help that process, taking out a lot of guess work and creating a working framework for all of the repetitive aspects. When I said 'you are just combining two tables into one.' in your question four, I meant that with a computer program you could easily switch between separate tables or combing them in the same table so that's really not an issue at all. And I went on saying that I preferred the combined table because that way you could cross reference and double check, e.g. you don't pay somebody to hang 96 doors and in reality there are only 90 doors ordered and hung. Your extension to different kinds of doors is a natural progression of the data base of hanging doors and with assigned relative values already established(and that of course is not static either), the whole data base can be updated instantly.
Dang, Son - You ask a lot of questions.....
I can see exactly why Boss said that. Jerrald, you are tireless, enthusiastic, just like a kid going fishing with his dad, and you have the passion. Think Michael plays basketball because of the money, or Tiger plays golf for that reason? Ahhhh, may be. May be you are not the Michael or the Tiger but your passion will take you somewhere someday.
Now is there a question #5?
TOMCHARK " ... As you can see the % distribution between art and science is all over the map as far as what we have seen so far." I actually think the real distribution of whether contractors think it is art or science tilts heavily toward the art side. They're just not saying anything in this particular thread conversation. I am a very obviously on the side that it's scientific and it can be taught. I think it's just another type of trade skill.
"It is an ongoing process. You estimate, with whatever means you have, get the job done, reconcile, move on hoping that you come out wiser and more efficient the next time around." I've got one problem with that sentence and it revolves around one word. Hope is Not a Method. Years ago I read a book written by former Army Chief of Staff Gordon R. Sullivan and Michael V. Harper entitled Hope is Not a Method which was about how the Army (and our armed forces in general) redesigned themselves after the low points of the sixties and seventies. A key point from the book is it's obviously not about just hoping things get better it's about proactively working on making things things better. (I later got the book on tape and listen to it often enough to refresh myself again on the thoughts and ideas I've gotten from it).
I'm thinking "hope" was just a slip using the wrong choice of word. I certainly get the point you were making but think a literal reading and interpretation of that word there could lead to complacency and mediocrity. Like sports training you don't hope to get a better serve to improve your tennis game, you work at it improving it.
"And I do think that in most cases some kind of computer program will help that process, taking out a lot of guess work and creating a working framework for all of the repetitive aspects." I think the computer ability to record keep helps a lot and you are 100% correct that it can help remove the guess work. I want to (and I think we all should use) established figures for what certain procedures take us rather than guessing at them every time we do a project.
"When I said 'you are just combining two tables into one.' in your question four, I meant that with a computer program you could easily switch between separate tables or combing them in the same table so that's really not an issue at all." Yup your right about that. I was displaying them as separate table to hopefully illustrate that we are better of THINKING of them as linked relationships so that when we do use computers we link them rather than leaving them unlinked.
I am just amazed that a computer program like the HomeTech estimator has tons of data that is not linked relationally. A couple of months ago in the Online Estimating topic I was shocked to find that with HomeTech Estimator when you changed the length of time a task takes it doesn't change the resulting cost (posts #34622.9 and #34622.11) Isn't that an incredibly obvious relationship?
if a big important company like HomeTech misses it I think we as small contractors could easily miss out or not recognize the importance on a relationship like that or relationships in general.
"I can see exactly why Boss said that. Jerrald, you are tireless, enthusiastic, just like a kid going fishing with his dad, and you have the passion." I think it's that I curious fascinated and interested in how all this stuff works. i can remember how as a little kid I was always taking thing apart to analyze and see just how they worked and that's obviously still with me today.
"Now is there a question #5?" Oh yeah,... there still tons of questions. I still playing catch here on BreakTime so I get to them eventually.
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I wrote:
However; your example is a fine one of at least peeking back into like work to check numbers.
You wrote: Actually, when ya think about it, I think it's more of a positive that Excel works for such large projects- if it can work on them, why wouldn't it work on a bath remodel, right?
I think we're in agreement.
I liked Bucks post alot.
Eric
i learned to estimate working for a heavy & highway union contractor... every winter when the jobs would close down , they'd bring us into the office to do estimates for the spring contracts..
( labor+materials+subcontracts+equip. rentals) + overhead + profit = bid
the whole process transferred to home building and remodeling when i went into business for myself.
then i found out that homebuilders and remodelers didn't do it that way... they bid based on price rather than on cost.. and all their prices were wrong... it took about 15 years of losing money to figure out they were wrong and i had been doing it right all along...
seminars like PROOF & walt steppleworth helped with the positive reinforcement...it's still hard to believe some of the numbers.. but i seldom OVERESTIMATE...Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
as far as excel ... or quattro -pro... yeah.. fine..
i use GC Works.. which is a template built on Claris Works.. it also links to QuickBook Pro.. but i don't do the link..
this is a great template..especially for small jobs.. if i'm doing a new house. i use the new house template..
i've been using this program for about 10 years... real nice... after you do the estimate, it also prints a ProForma.. and a Proposal.. the Proposal has all of our boilerplate in it... i add the job description, reference any attachments or plans, write out the payment schedule and go to my meeting... 8 times out of 10.. i walk out with the signed agreement and a deposit
now that the world is based on MS.. the software has been rewritten so the template is an Excel template, and the documents are Word.. now the Program is called BuildWorks.... by Synapse Software ...... all based on MS Office & QB Pro
http://www.synapsesoftware.com/home.html
Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
hey Mike ..
which version do you have .. or which would your older version trannslate to?
Looks like I'd be somewhere between the basic and standard ...
if I was gonna spend the $1000 ... I'd might as well spend the extra $500 ....
have to figure out if the "extra's" are worth the extra cash.
Looks like a pretty complete deal ...
JeffBuck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
jeff, i'm pretty sure my version of GC Works is called "platinum"... i forgett what Synapse wanted to upgrade to BuildWorks...
any day now i'm gonna do it... yeah , right...
seriously .. this has really simplified my life... the template still requires entries... their database is meant to be built by the user.. i suppose the new version has some boilerplate database...
what i like is how the estimate turns into a Proposal... way coolMike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
do Corey a favor, would ya?
Follow your link and find the page that compares them all on that nice little chart...
Let me ... uh Corey ... know which seems to have the stuff you've found most useful...
I bet I'd have to lean towards the standard ... $1500.
Thanks ...
U know ...
From the kid.
JeffBuck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
Hey Jeff I just gotta ask... toward the end of last summer I asked ya to take a look at the estimating software I developed and help me beta test it and offer suggestions and ideas and ya never took me up on the offer. I was prepared to give to you free license in return for you comments and thoughts on it (as I have done with around ten people that actually helped me out). Now you're talking about spending a $1000-$1500 on estimating software? What am I? Chopped liver? My feeling are hurt. (Well not really but I am wondering just what the heck ever happened to ya?)
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I know ...
I'm a terrible person ...
OK... just real ... real ... lazy when it comes to the computer and new things.
I still have your info ... I think ....
Had the best of intentions on using the free-be ....
At the time ... I was really over-booked .. over worked .. just turned the computer on for quick enjoyment .... didn't wanna get into anything new ...
Unlike now!
Now I'm busy ... but fairly organized .. time wise.
Now would be the perfect time to try your program ...
Was that enough groveling?
Better Q? Can I still do it?
Email me ... let me know if I'm not too late ....
this time I won't waste your time ....
but I'm gonna need the paint by numbers version if I have to download and/or install anything .....I might be a good test for ya ... semi-computer-literate .. but still can't type and chew gum at the same time ..... I'd be the perfect "cover boy" for the basic dumb carpenter turned advanced computer programing using genius ...
We'll be rich I tell ya ... rich.
Don't mince words .. feel free to tell me to screw off ... I missed the boat.
Story of my life ....
Hey ... while we're on the subject ... that program ...
I checked out Mike's link ... looked good .. if I could make it work ...
How's your program compare with they're little "what it includes" chart?
I asked ... so it's fine to make that info public here ....
memo to taunton .. customer's always right kinda thing going on ....
Once agin ...
I do apologize for wasting your time and for not following up on your fantastic offer ....
Jeff
Buck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
Okay here's something I don't get. - "I can ... barely... make a speadsheet ... but again .. self taught and wife guided ........Plus ... this is talking about money ... my math is fantastic when it comes to money math. I also run thru things lotsa times different ways .. as a math checker ... out of habbit .... learned to do that in grade school ... work the answer ... the work back to the question ... "
How can you be really good at math but you can't make a spreadsheet? That makes no sense to me at all other than it's a possible case of you just never seriously approached learning how. If you sucked at math then maybe I would understand that the concepts and principles that go into a spreadsheet could be difficult but not vice versa. I think it is precisely because I was good at math and trig that making spreadsheets came relatively easy to me.
I would think if we are capable of figuring out mortgages, saving money to send kids to college, and financing a car then we are certainly smart enough to figure out how to develop a simple spreadsheet!
"I can keep running talleys in my head ...." That I can't do. No way, I need to write the stuff (or type) the stuff. I just realized the other day that I only have two phone numbers committed to memory. My phone and one of my brother home phone. Other than than that I can't remember a single phone number. I rely on my PDA, my computer, or what's programmed into the phone. My theory is that by not committing all those phone numbers to memory I've cleared lots of room in my brain for other stuff (at least that's how I rationalize it to myself).
"I stick estimate most everything .. walking myself mentally thru the build ..." I unit cost estimate everything. I wont and wouldn't perform a stick level estimate until I was sure we had the job otherwise I could be wasting a lot of time. However I got my unit cost system is pretty close to delivering the accurate quantities I need for a particular task. It will give me the total linear feet of 2x4 I would need for a wall but wouldn't break that out into the number of 2x4 precuts and 2x4 plate material. I do that manually as I write the purchase orders after we get the project and then check the dollars costs against the unit cost estimate.
Ya know with regard to my computer estimating program I invited you to be a beta tester precisely because I had identified you as a legal pad estimator and one of the things I wanted to make sure of was that the program wasn't too difficult or complicated for the legal pad types to figure out and get up and running on. At the time I never said outright that I would give it away free to anybody even though I planned all along to do that for anyone who helped me out. I'm a firm believer in quid pro quo. I got one guy who is a local contractor a few towns away form me who gave me so much help and feedback I feel like I should give him my first born child. I can't give it to you for free anymore since I now have paying clients using it and that wouldn't be fair to them( I actually have sold licenses to a contractor in Qatar and just a few days ago to someone in France. Go figure? How did they find out about it?). But give me constructive feedback and ideas for both enhancements and improvements as well as things I can do to make it simpler and easier too and I will certainly make it worth you or anybody else's while. (360 Trade Contractor Estimating) For one thing I plan to give anyone who picks it up now the General Contractor version and the Timekeeping module as soon as there ready which could be any day now.
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Spreadsheets ... as far as seriously trying to learn ..
You're right ... I haven't tried .. seriously .. yet.
Just made my very first one about 6 months ago .... now I have 3 templates ... basic ... short ... long.
Thought I had most situations covered ...
Then the last 2 times I tried to play with them for real jobs ... I had more catagories missing then right stuff included! Annoyed myself.
Plus .... the set up theory is pretty simple .... but the actual setting up of the columns ... what's gonna add or multiply with what ... Man, I hate typing all that stuff in. Shouldn't this computer be able to figure out what I want with me sitting on the couch?
Then ... my very latest bid ... I decide to try it all over ... work up a new one....
Get all the info in there ... only now I got too many columns so it doesn't all fit when printed!
Ahhhh.
See ... legal pads are much easier.
At this point in the career ... I pretty much have to stick estimate ... as I never do the same thing twice. And if it is the "same" project ... it's either way bigger ... or way smaller ... and all the finish materials are completely different.
Now when I sub ... that's tile, trim and cab's ...
I can estimate the labor by simply walking the job or reading thru the prints.
I can estimate a whole house of tile or trim within the time it takes to walk thru the rough framing.
And I've build enough insanely designed cab layouts that I can get real close to the actual time invloved by sitting down with the designer ahev having them walk me thru their "vision" as we go over the details on the prints.
But I still consider that "stick" vs "unit" ... because each 15x18 master bath getting tile is a different animal ... not really a "unit" to latch onto.
Like I told the one desiger that always complained that my prices .. divided out ... were "per sq ft" higher than the "sq ft" numbers he had .....
"When ya start drawing me squares to tile ... I'll go by your sq ft number".
But your first guess was right ...
I got plenty of smarts to figure any of this computer stuff out ... just don;t have the inclination.
I either need a program that's all inclusive and walks me thru the whole process ... or nothing at all. Which is why I still don't have one ....
I'm thinking they haven't lowered the standards down to my lazy level yet ...
Jeff
Buck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
Critical part of whole operation IMHO is to reconcile the estimate for your job with the ACTUAL invoices and time cards. That is where you learn to estimate properly for YOUR operation. When you look at others, you use their criteria for the job. When you have a few estimates that have been reconciled, you will quickly see where you have made or lost $. This step is the hardest part of the estimating process but IMHO it is the only one that really counts. I have seen too many people NOT know if they are making $ and that's what this is all about. When I do an estimate I enter it on Excel then have a column at the end that allows me to enter the " actuals" with the difference on an additional column. I will enter stuff ( i.e. if I estimated lumber costs to be $ 5000 I'll enter the invoices as I get them) as I go so I can see if the job is going to be OK or not. Any negatives in the difference column stand out immediately ( they are in RED !!) First we get good- then we get fast !
Tickyboy -"Critical part of whole operation IMHO is to reconcile the estimate for your job with the ACTUAL invoices and time cards." Thanks for bringing that up. I was actually working my way up to that.
I am in total 1000% agreement with you when you say:
"This step [reconciling/job costing] is the hardest part of the estimating process but IMHO it is the only one that really counts."
My question for all the legal pad estimators is how do you go about checking all that estimate work for accuracy and where do you keep a record of what worked and what didn't?
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I too am in complete agreement with tickyboy. Job costing is the absolute key to good estimates. Of course I have been saying that for fifteen years without doing much about it. So in answer to your question, is it art or science? It is both and neither. It is will. The will to establish a system which tracks your job costs and compares them to the estimate and then updates your data base.
For myself, I'd rather go skiing or coach basketball but I do pay the price in lower quality estimates. We all have to make choices and live with them
For our projects I like to use a modified stick approach, building the project in my head and on paper, using unit costs where I am confident of them and using stick numbers where the work is different from anything we have done before. We get some of this in every job.
Okay Mike I gotta ask what do you mean by "then i found out that homebuilders and remodelers didn't do it that way... they bid based on price rather than on cost.." I have a hunch about what your getting at but I'm not altogether sure.
"Seminars like PROOF & walt steppleworth helped with the positive reinforcement...it's still hard to believe some of the numbers.. but i seldom OVERESTIMATE..." Did you by any chance read Paul Eldrenkamps JLC article last fall Healing Your Inner Underestimator One of the good point or recommendations he made in it if you are consistently underestimating was:
And then he went on to add two more possible solutions; "Work exclusively on a time-and-materials basis" which I think is a copout and carries it own baggage with it too, and "Increase your gross margin" which is essentially just saying increase your contingency allowance and I think that can lead to problems too.
Good article though even though I disagree slightly with a few parts of it. I always enjoy reading Paul Eldrenkamps stuff.
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jerrald... the " bid on price rather than on cost" is the same old...
so, what do you get for a square of red cedars ?
everyone in town knows what the prices were.. or what the BOOK says the production rate should be...
hard to argue with success , no ?...
anyways after a couple years of paying NO INCOME TAX ( because there was no income ).. i figgered these guys didn't have a clue.. and i would price based on MY COST...
things started improving right away... even when the homeowner would give me the olde " my brother-in-law, the fireman, says i shouldn't pay more than $100 a square for roofing"... i could finally laugh at them instead of thinking there was something wrong with me..
haven't read the article.. but might dig it up... i can ALWAYS use positive reinforcement...
as to stick estimating.. i agree with you.. too much time unless you know you have the job... OR, UNLESS YOU GET PAID FOR THE ESTIMATE..
which has a secondary benefit... anyone who is going to pay you $1000 to $3000 for an estimate, will probably hire you to do the job .... cool , huh?Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
I learned from working for other contractors like me , the mistake and lose money method and the always better , good i made money this time method. first the walk threw with customer , listen very careful to what they want and get a feel for what they are saying, but not saying. like i dont need anything fancy like real wood cabinets or a nice sink or ( can you use the old 2x4s with nails in them behind the shed) they dont get an estimate from me they get by the hr + materials 25.00 per hr for each carpenter even the guy picking up shingles and pulling out nails.
The people thet want it done right and understand it takes time and money get an estimate for everything / demmo + 1st dump run, framing , electrician, plumber, insul , sheetrock ,etc. i figure everything by 1/2 days and fulldays. example demo for a avg bathroom remodel 2days , cut into floor for plumber so he can run pipes and drains, might take 1/2day and leave for afternoon , charge full day . things like that . I always add 15 to 20% for unexpected . if I think it will take2 and 1/2 weeks to do the job 12 to 13 days i estimate 3 weeks for labor . Materials I give some customers the choice of buying ther own materials and get them deliverd i just give them list and brands i want .
If i pick up materials then i make 25 to 40% markup hey why not I do this work because i like it and I also like money. Dont be afraid to over charge you can always go down if you need the work. Dogboy
Dogboy ya know where you've said "i figure everything by 1/2 days and fulldays. example demo for a avg bathroom remodel 2days , cut into floor for plumber so he can run pipes and drains, might take 1/2day and leave for afternoon , charge full day . things like that ." have you ever found that when you planned for a task to take a full day and the person doing the task is doing well enough to get it done in a half a day they will then stretch it out to take up the whole day?
Parkinson's Law - Work expands to fill (and often exceed) the time allowed.
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I have to admit to the legal pad approach, mainly because I haven't found another method which I prefer, or gives better results. Each job is different, and each similar job within a job is different. For example, at the moment I'm procrastinating over an estimate for a bathroom teardown and remodel. I've done plenty of BRs before, but this one has several different caveats, from the installation of a skylight too close to the vent stack to getting a one piece tub/surround through an exterior wall.
I suppose the programs and books can break things down piece by piece, but I've found that those are narrow in focus and overlook details that could cost me money. So I take the step-by-step approach to anticipate what I will need to do a given job, and because I work primarily alone, I have to know exactly when it will be needed. All of this for me means a more thinking process of estimating is required.
That said, experience can provide more of an estimate than any book. The book may say it should only take xx minutes to pull a toilet, but your time is usually not less than xy. You know the human factor of your work, what you can and can't do, and in how much time.
I suppose it would be nice to open a program and type in Bathroom Remodel, All bells and whistles included, and have a number spit out at you. But I'm not sure it would be accurate for that particular job. If it was, I want that program.
For sure, estimating, to me, is the worst part of this business, and I admit to putting some of it off more than I should. But the more you do it, the easier it gets; there's less and less new or unfamiliar things you're called upon to do, so an accurate account of past jobs (time and material listings) for a reference makes the job a whole lot easier.
This is just one guy's opinion, and probably not an efficient one, at that. (Guy or opinion, take your pick.)
I never met a tool I didn't like!
have the spread sheets, even print out check lists I developed
and eventually it will all end up on the computer
but I like to write it out, scratch it out on paper when it comes to remodels and addtions.
it gives me time to think about all the options, probelms,etc
I know there are some out there that just use spread sheets and programs, and that is ok for them
but those wont tell you what you saw in person, rot here , pain in the butt dog there
or easy peasy japaneesy
old dogs
yep thats me
Well said.
Eric
hammertime - "I know there are some out there that just use spread sheets and programs, and that is ok for them
but those wont tell you what you saw in person, rot here , pain in the butt dog there"
That's not necessarily the case at all. My programming does. I've got a file called Venues which keeps track of information like:
Project venues address and job site phone number
A Map It button which will connect to the web, find the venue and then you can print out the map along with driving instructions
Special Conditions & Restrictions
Physical Access (How do you get materials or personnel in and out)
Pets
Occupancy (Is the owner there? A maid? Security guard?)
Work Hours
Clean-up and Protection Requirements
Parking
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It doesn't show on the screenshot but there are also buttons that link to the folder on the hard disk where there are more photos of the venue and/or to the web URL where the photos are (we put our photos on the web to share amongst our team and our subcontractors).
We photograph everything (digitally) and I wouldn't trust my own memory to remember 100% of what I saw on a site visit and when talking about it with co-workers photos are even more important so you do lose anything in your translation of what it was you saw.
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NickNuke -"I have to admit to the legal pad approach, mainly because I haven't found another method which I prefer, or gives better results.Each job is different, and each similar job within a job is different." Well I understand what you're saying but I don't necessarily agree with that at all. While my company was 90% residential work last year as a few people here know I come from a back ground of building themed environments for the theatre, trade shows, and exhibits. We built things like rocky cliffs and volcanoes (for an exhibit of those life-sized robotic dinosaurs) to koi fish ponds (on the second floor inside a residence) to a sculptural shower stall in the shape of a giant hand and more so we really have built a lot of unique exotic one of a kind stuff and after years of doing that I see processes procedures and techniques that repeat themselves over and over again.
In talking with other contractors I show them photos of those rocky cliffs we built and ask them how they would estimate something like that or at least part of the work for something like that and they haven't a clue but when show them that underneath the rock effects the framework you have supporting everything is essentially a steep gambrel roof where each rafter has a different pitch or combination of pitches ( the pitch changes helped give it variations in steepness. The frame was then sheathed in chickenwire and the chicken wire was pulled and distressed to add more variation and then that was sheathed in a fiberglass mesh or screen that was then either covered in resin or blown popcorn ceiling material.
The superstructure framework I used typical roof framing figures for a roof 2' OC.
The "art" of estimating probably came into play when it came to sheathing the structure in chickenwire. I first used used a figure I had for purlins to add purlins that divided the superstructure up in to 2' by 4' sections that the chickewire would attach to and after a some consideration I used a roof sheathing figure thinking if anything it was going to be easier and quicker to sheath it in chicken wire than it would be for plywood and was pretty close on that.
My point is that in many cases if you have a database of labor hour figures from a variety of tasks you can probably use them again in some unique new application if you take the time to really consider the task you are trying to estimate.
Part two of all this lets say you have a figure that says it that it takes: .842 labor hours to install a solid or architectural pre-hung interior door (no hardware or trim). That means it takes on average .842 labor hours (51 minutes) to typically install that type of door. Sometimes it might only take .500 labor hours (30 minutes) and sometimes it might take 1.200 labor hours (1 hour 12 minutes) but they generally average out to .842 labor hours (51 minutes).
You may have a year where you spent 168.5 hours hanging 200 of that particular kind of door. There is no way that you would or could expect each door to take you precisely 51 minutes but they averaged out to .842 labor hours (51 minutes) per door. The .500 labor hour figure and the 1.200 labor hour figure fall within what called the range of what called Common Cause Variation. It's the natural variation that is inherent in the process. It's the "noise" that is common to that process.
But you might find that in the case of your All Bells & Whistles Bathroom Remodel project you know that that .842 labor hours (51 minutes) figure isn't going to work for that door installation. The bathroom adjoins a finished bedroom with a very expensive light beige carpet in it, the homeowners are still living in the space as the work is going to be done and the floor tilts so the bottom of the door can't be straight and has to be scribe cut. You can do any cutting in the bedroom and the bathroom isn't big enough to cut in so you'll have to drag the door all the way back out to the garage on the other side of the house to cut it there. Hanging that door is going to take a lot longer than 51 minutes!
Well how much longer? Figure for three 10 minute trips back and forth to the garage 10 minutes to scribe the door 25 minutes to cut chamfer, sand, and reseal the bottom edge of the door. Those "add-ons" are all accounting for what called Special Cause Variation and you need to estimate for them separately and independently of the basic typical door installation. I think it's in the understanding, identification, and evaluation of Special Cause Variation that estimating becomes an Art. The bathroom door in the All Bells & Whistles Bathroom Remodel project would be figured for 1.933 labor hours or 1 hour 56 minutes instead of the baseline .842 (51 minutes).
How why and where to modify the typical standard baseline data while at first maybe based on gut instinct and feel (the Art) but it also can under certain circumstances eventually be measured, quantified and converted into a Unit Cost in and unto itself (it becomes Science). You may find after you and your crew have done several procedures where you've "cut chamfered, sanded, and resealed the bottom edge of doors" that 30 minutes is a better baseline figure to use than the 25 you first figured. Sometimes it took 45 and sometime 15 but the average was 30 not 25 minutes so you add that to your database of costs to use again in the future.
"I suppose it would be nice to open a program and type in Bathroom Remodel, All bells and whistles included, and have a number spit out at you. But I'm not sure it would be accurate for that particular job. If it was, I want that program." There is no such program will just spit out a number at you, and there probably never will be, and I would think nor should there be. The estimator will always need to make judgment calls to modify and tweak the numbers. The key is to have a program that allows you to do that. But I want to keep the guess work and judgment calls to a minimum so I can concentrate on the areas that really need my judgment rather than looking at and reinventing the wheel for every single bloody damn element in a project every single time I do an estimate.
Re:"This is just one guy's opinion, and probably not an efficient one, at that." Nah I wouldn't necessarily say that at all. All the thoughts and opinions here are vaulable and revealing in my estimation. Hey I was asking for thoughts and ideas from legal pad estimators becuse I'm interested in learning the whys. I really do appreciate all your comments. As I work with my people helping them get a handle on estimating it helps to hear from others out there too so I can better anticipate and respond to their questions, ideas, methods, and thinking. Ya never stop learning.
Regarding your tag line "I never met a tool I didn't like!" Me too and I've got at least two of everything but that brings up another question. Doesn't "estimating software" qualify as a tool? I think it was that took junkie attitiude in me that had me exploring and still exploring all the estimating software that out there. I was just talking to Bob K about two little programs that I recently discovered that I think could be interesting tools to use for a certain specfic kind of estimating technique that I wanted to look at (no Bob I haven't looked at them yet, I've been setting up other stuff so I haven't had the time just yet).
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Doesn't "estimating software" qualify as a tool?
Definitely, how else would you qualify it as?
May be if we can convince everybody that it is a tool, and I do believe wholeheartedly that it is, then it will sell itself. We are the tool guys right?
Jerrald,
I was planning on writing lengthy reply to your original question, but you already maxed out the server. <g>
When I first read your thread title I thought "you never hear of a starving scientist".
I believe that estimating is 90% science and 10% experience. Art doesn't come into play if you're doing it right, and the experience to estimate is not as much as the experience to perform the task. I think that a good scientific process can eliminate much of the uncertainity that comes along with conditions. Weather can have a factor. Difficult owners can have a factor. Distance from parking to site can be factored.
I think the biggest obstacle most come up against is not in their estimating, rather the data collection. If you don't know how long it really takes you to perform task "x", than how can you account for it?
The alternative to scientific estimating is SWAG. Not that there's anything wrong with that method, but I do believe that the scientific approach yields the best results.
Jon Blakemore
Jon Blakemore -"I think the biggest obstacle most come up against is not in their estimating, rather the data collection. If you don't know how long it really takes you to perform task "x", than how can you account for it?" Aye, there's the' rub.
Agreed, absolutely! Some contractors have estimating systems and methods but now way of telling how accurate they are. A while back here a fellow started a discussion here entitled "Numbers in the database" and in his post #35693.6 he talked about the wide spread in the data he was getting for framing:
As it turned out I happened to recognize who was asking the question and since he wrote an article on Timekeeping for JLC and I happen to have the timecard he uses to look at and analyze. You can see it too in the June 2002 article he wrote for JLC entitled
Tracking Your Time (its a free article, you don't have to be a JLC plus member to read it) The intro to the article says "
A time card can improve the accuracy of your estimates, cut worker’s comp costs, and increase your profit" and while I agree with what his timecard can do as far as saving on workers comp by isolating the tasks his people perform in different comp categories it's very obvious to me that his timecard is NOT giving him the information he needs to evaluate and improve the accuracy of his framing estimates (and probably other estimate areas too).
If he is seeing a wide spread in his actual labor time reports in comparison to his estimates then there is variation going on that is being hidden from him. There is a dramatic difference in the time it take to Frame a 1000SF roof from the time it takes to Sheath that same 1000SF roof and with a timecard like that he has no way of knowing where was he off in his estimate. We he off in the Framing or the Sheathing? His people are only recording the Total Time they spend on the rough carpentry portion of a roof not the specific elements of it. What about dormers? What about if it's an eyebrow dormer? Etc...
What I found works much better is to send the crew out with the actual breakdown of tasks that went into the estimates of the work they work they are doing or might be doing that week. That way they can categorize and charge their time right against the line item that was used to make up the estimate. For instance looking at the sample estimate I laid out above msg#39030.20 I would send the carpenter who was doing to work out with a breakdown of the tasks saying I wanted to know how much time was spent:
Hanging the 4 Pre-Hung Int. Double French Doors
Hanging the 2 Pre-Hung Int. Doors
Installing the 70 LF interior door architrave trim
Installing the 68 LF pattern base-finger-joint pine
Installing the 68 LF chair rail-paint-grade pine
Installing the 68 LF crown mold-paint-grade pine
No estimate numbers with that because I don't want that to taint or influence how the carpenter reports back to me with the results. I may go over the numbers with them afterwards but if they had the number in hand while they were doing the work they might be more likely to report what they thought I wanted to hear rather than what really happened. They're also sent out with instructions that if you get hijacked from the task at hand and end up talking with a client for two hours to tell me that too. That's okay, what I really want and need is the real results of what's really going on so I can include or make accomodations for that in future estimates.
If I estimated hanging the Pre-Hung Int. Doors at .842 labors a piece for a total of 1.684 labors hours and it turns out they took 4 hours because they were really just like the problem Special Cause door installation that I explained in my post #39030.38 to NickNuke'em then I need to know that so I can estimate correctly for it next time.
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Jerry,
I've enjoyed following this discussion. I had hoped to ask some of the same questions you asked here, at JLC when the latest version of my Historical Database was posted to the Library, but it's been over a month since I submitted and interest in the topic has died by now. So much for my experiment.
I'm curious about your idea from, " What I found works much better is to send the crew out with the actual breakdown of tasks that went into the estimates of the work they are doing or might be doing that week. That way they can categorize and charge their time right against the line item that was used to make up the estimate." I'd be interested in more details of the process. Perhaps you could start a separate thread so as not to confuse this one.
But back to the topic of this thread:
If I may, I'd like to answer your question about Art vs. Science with a question of my own (since I believe that when each of us answers this question, then we'll know our own personal percentages).
You have a definition of Common Cause Variation - "Common Cause Variation is fluctuation caused by unknown factors resulting in a steady but random distribution of output around the average of the data. It is a measure of the process potential, or how well the process can perform when special cause variation removed."
I agree with this statement.
Now when we estimate, we will select one value in that "random distribution of output" and use that value to forecast subsequent estimates. My question is; what thinking and methodology do we use in selecting that one data point amongst all the other possibilities? In other words, if we have data that a task like "Install P/H 6-panel Masonite Door- includes primed casing both sides- no lockset" ranges from 1.05 hrs. to 1.67 hours, and we've eliminated Special Cause Variation, how do we choose what number between 1.05 and 1.67 we'll use for future estimates?
Because they need a construction-smart, computer-saavy gal (or guy) working for them who can interpret their legal-pad scrawlings and help them arrive at a smart estimate by producing the hard numbers they need to ensure they make a fair, yet profitable bid.
Just my humble opinion, but most of contractors I know, act like they have little time or patience to spend time on this detail work, not realizing their livelihood depends on this.
darcy
Gee. where's Bob Kovacs when we need him?
Here I is!!! (to quote Buckwheat from the Little Rascals....lol)
OK- regarding question 1:
To me, estimating is about 80% art, and 20% science- explanation below:
- The 20% "science"- anyone can be taught to do quantity takeoff, which is the "science" part of estimating. Measuring walls, counting receptacles, figuring SF of drywall- all easily taught skills.
- The 80% "art"- knowing what to do with the quantities once they're established. This involves analyzing the project as a whole- site conditions, schedule, owner peculiarities, etc., and also analyzing each task as a part of the whole. Anyone can pull a number from a book or computer program, multiply by the quantity, and arrive at a "cost" for that item. The artful part comes from knowing what the "right" number is based on the actual quantity of work for each item, the effects of site conditions and the other items mentioned above, and how the item of work fits into the overall scope of the job.
Jerry asked regarding "art" as something you are inherently born with. I'd say it can come with experience for the most part, but to some degree, you have to have a certain something about you to be able to really grasp the big picture and apply it to your estimate. I've seen guys with tons of "experience"- dozens (or hundreds) of jobs behind them who still make the same stupid mistakes that keep them from making good money, and keep them just making a living. They just never put it all together.
And question 2:
Several were quick to point out "garbage in, garbage out", and "I don't have the time to spend building a huge database". I don't think that's really the question Jerry was posing- moving from legal pad to full-blown computerized database estimating. The simpler question is, why not at least type the items into Excel, and let it do the math for you? Do you realize how easy it is to miss a "0" on a calculator, and never realize you even did it? That can result in an error of tens, hundreds, or thousands of dollars (or millions with some of my estimates- scary....). And what about when you need to make a quick quantity change on a legal pad? You erase, recalculate, and re-add all of the numbers- then you need to do you multiplication for markup, etc.- too many opportunities for a boo-boo.
Taking an extra ten minutes to get the stuff into Excel can save thousands in just one paper-and-pencil error. And the best part is, as much as everyone says "my projects are all unique", I'll bet you that 80-90% of the work for a new estimate will already be sitting in a spreadsheet file from a previous estimate after you've done just a few in Excel. As an example, I just finished an estimate today for a $30 million, 130-unit condo building. Did I whip out the yellow pad and paper and start writing? No. Did I fire up the $6,000 Timberline estimating package that's staring me down from the shelf above my desk? No. I grabbed an estimate file from a previous project done two years ago, and have the whole project priced in about two hours (after the takeoff work was done).
So, I guess one could say that there's simple ways to utilize the power of your computer, without a huge investment of time or money, while protecting your bottom line.
Bob
As an example, I just finished an estimate today for a $30 million, 130-unit condo building. Did I whip out the yellow pad and paper and start writing?
Your WAY out of our league....most of us anyway.
However; your example is a fine one of at least peeking back into like work to check numbers. Something I am doing more now, and something that if I had not done last week before delivering a proposal would have cost me 5k.
That is a lesson learned from being here. What a bagain.
Eric
yellow pad ...
because it fits all different types of jobs .. right of the bat.
When I write ... I can build the job in my head ...
I been writing most of my life!
When I type ... I gotta stop and think .... then I lose a step.
I can think faster than I write ...
I can write faster than I type.
more natural too ... I'm a self taught very quick but plenty ugly 3 or 4 finger hunt and pecker ... hey .. I just called myself a pecker?
See what typing does ... I'd never write that!
I can ... barely... make a speadsheet ... but again .. self taught and wife guided ...
I don't have the inclination to learn more .. computer wise.
I also make more mistakes typing than writting.
Plus ... this is talking about money ... my math is fantastic when it comes to money math. I also run thru things lotsa times different ways .. as a math checker ... out of habbit .... learned to do that in grade school ... work the answer ... the work back to the question ... if they match ... your golden.
I can keep running talleys in my head .... then write them down ... but I can't do the same and type ... typing takes too much concentration for me.
I stick estimate most everything .. walking myself mentally thru the build ...
And I estimate time .. by my famous "that'll take about-a" method.
I've learned most from working along sdie my Dad ... have learned tons from people here ... a little from books ... some from BS'ing with other guys local ... and have even learned a good bit from watching others screw up.
Still have tons to learn.
Wish the computer came more naturally ... but a company I used to sub for spent lotsa money each year with new and improved computer estimating programs ... after I "learned" their personality(cheap .. best quality for lowest price .. when it came to subs bids) ... I could match almost to the dollar with my "that'll take" method what their computer spit out ...
Used to drive the owner nuts ... took me les time to walk the project and give a number than it took for him to input all the info ... and we'd be within a hair one way or the other ....
Plus ... yellow tab's batteries never run out ...
Jeff
Buck Construction Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
Dang, Son - You ask a lot of questions..................(-:
As for the art or science thing - I look at it more like 50% science, 40% experience, and 10% "art".
Of course, my experience is almost exclusively from bidding trusses, so my perspective comes from that.
The science part isn't too hard, as someone already pointed out. Anyone can count pieces. But you certainly can't do an estimate without this part.
.
The part that I call "experience" is a large part of it for me.
Like knowing from past experience when a HO doesn't know what they're doing, and will be a HUGE pain to deal with. Or knowing that a particular contractor always wants to backcharge us. Or the print is lousy and the HO doesn't really know what he wants. These experiences make me want to bid high.
Or remembering that a customer is a long term one, and both he and I know exactly what he wants. Or a really simple job with clear prints. These situations make me want to bid low.
I use past experiences and hunches to determine how to bid stuff.
.
The part that I would call "art" is the creative part.
Like when a set of trusses are only 2 or 3 inches over the max height we can build in one piece, I'll suggest lowering the pitch a hair so we don't have to piggyback them. Or changing the way the trusses are laid out to avoid using a girder truss.
Doing things that other truss companies might not do in order to make the job less expensive or easier to put together.
To me that's the only part of estimating that I'd call "art".
Everyone has a right to be stupid, some just abuse the privilege.
Boss Hog-"Dang, Son - You ask a lot of questions..................(-:" Son? Your calling me Son? geez you must really be old (-:. Just curious and wondering what people think.
"I use past experiences and hunches to determine how to bid stuff." Yup that's just what I was referring to as the Art component. But your talking about like it more than 10% I see your "40% experience" as part of the Art component so to me your saying it's 50-50? What about the data of what past projects cost or took in the way of time (that's the Science component)? Do you keep records of that kind of stuff? Isn't that a lot more valuable (and accurate) than a hunch or feeling?
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"...that's just what I was referring to as the Art component. But your talking about like it more than 10% I see your "40% experience" as part of the Art component so to me your saying it's 50-50?"
Maybe it's just nit-picky, but I don't consider what I'm calling the "experience" part to be "art". To me "art" is creative - Trying to find better alternatives than whattypically done or is shown on the print.
I might have out too much emphasis on the "experience" part and not enough on the "science" part. But they're just a general idea anyway.
"What about the data of what past projects cost or took in the way of time (that's the Science component)? Do you keep records of that kind of stuff? Isn't that a lot more valuable (and accurate) than a hunch or feeling?"
Since trusses are built in a more controlled environment I suppose it's somewhat different than it is for general construction. But it goes roughly like this:
We do "time studies" on groups of trusses - Keep track of the labor associated with them. The labor is broken down into different catagories - Lumber fetching, sawing time, moving the material to the tables, setup of the jig, and finally assembly time.
Once you have this type of info for all the different truss types, you set up pricing rules in the truss pricing program. (It's part of the engineering program we use) Test pricing runs are made, and compared to how you used to price it, what's known about your competitor's pricing, etc. You tweak things until the prices start coming out the way you want. After that, the pricing program does the majority of the work.
The part I'm calling "experience" is what you do with the numbers that the computer kicks out. Let's say it comes up with $100 for a particular truss. That doesn't necessarilly mean we sell it for $100. We might do one or more of the following:
1. Adjust it upwards if we know the truss is going to be extremely difficult to build - Something the computer just can't "see".
2. Adjust it upwards for a slow paying customer, one who's a pain in the neck, a job we don't really want, pain in the neck DIYs or GCs, etc.
3. Adjust it downwards for large jobs, reliable customers, or jobs we really want for some reason or other.
That's the part I was referring to as "experience". That's where the "hunches or feelings" you referred to come into play.
You might be interested to know that when I started in the truss business (Around 1984) the "standard" pricing formula for trusses was 2.5 times the cost of the lumber. This is obviously a ridiculous way to price stuff. No adjustmaents were typically made for quantity. But the industry was newer then and has matured a lot. The use of computers has also obviously changed things a great deal.
I guess that would be roughly the equivalent of a builder using square foot pricing?Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today. [James Dean]