Price drop for solar panels coming soon
FatRoman
| Posted in Energy, Heating & Insulation on
Article summary:
- Silicon supply on the rebound
- By 2010 Solar panel costs expected to drop 50% from 2006 prices
- Effectively making the cost per watt (10 cents / watt) equal between solar power and electric grid power
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/20702/
‘Man who say it cannot be done should not interrupt man doing it’ ~ Chinese proverb
Replies
My BIL that works in the solar cell plant tells me that was solved sometime ago.
However, their current problem with solar manufacturering costs is the price of rare earth metals (that get "spiked" into the cocktail of stuff that is deposited upon the silicon) is expontentially going thru the roof. He sent me a study a few months ago showing that absolute depletion of all known stocks of three or four of these metals would only give us a fraction of our needs.
Back to windmills...
Or wave action, geothermal, maybe photosynthesis?
And now that the entire World's stock of Coltan is
being hoarded in some military warehouse in California,
it looks like we are royally screwed.
The solar panels that use germanium and what-not are never going to be the answer. I'm optimistic that another approach will work, at some point.
I remember reading articles about the coming age of photovoltaic power in Popular Science magazine - 45 years ago. If I had a dollar for every article I've read since then, I could probably go out and buy one of those fancy Fein vacuums.
IMO small-scale PV systems make little sense because of siting and maintenance issues. Residential rooftops are poor places to locate any kind of equipment, especially delicate panels and wires carrying thousands of watts of power.
TJK,
My oldest PV panel is 28 years old -- it's been on the roof the whole time -- and is still working just fine. No moving parts. I have gradually added panels over the years, and my house functions quite well with 14 panels. Maximum electrical production is about 600 or 700 watts, not "thousands of watts."
Edited 5/5/2008 3:38 pm ET by MartinHolladay
I'm glad it's working for you, at 28 years you must be close to break-even. The high-end houses I see today are being built on small acreage and usually in subdivisions with HOA covenants. Even if they had 1000 SF of roof facing South, it would be a hassle to put PV panels up because of trees (they do tend to get taller over time) and HOA restrictions. Around here in Grand Junction CO we have plenty of sunshine, a generous incentive program, and a lot of wealthy home owners who could afford to try PV. Most of the activity I've seen has been on commercial buildings and I think the reasons I cited earlier are why residential PV just isn't taking off.
There's a simple reason why the commercial buildings are being done over residential. The Federal Income Tax Credit for businesses is 30% with no cap. That plus Col great rebates equals a good reason for any business with a tax appetite and decent roof space to do it.
If the new ITC gets passed which removes the residential cap (which is now a lousy $2000) I think the residential sector will see a boom.
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
From:http://www.businessexaminer.com/blog/cardinal-glass-to-making-solar/Cardinal Glass to begin making solar panelsThose who attended the 25th-anniversary Lewis County Economic Development Council banquet last night had reason to celebrate: Cardinal Glass has announced it will soon be making solar panels.The specialized glass maker will make some 9.5 million solar panels every year by this time next year. A new panel will roll off the line every three seconds."That's just mind boggling to me," Lewis County Economic Development Council Executive Director Bill Lotto said. "They will be one of the largest producers in the country. Their panels will be sent around the world."The expansion of operations at the plant will mean the addition of about 80 workers, bringing the company's local payroll to about 300. The plant will operate around the clock -- good news at a time when the county could use some."In the aftermath of the flooding, this is a wonderful statement of faith," Lotto said.This news comes at a time when Lewis County is being noted for being a regional hub for energy and energy-related industries.Cardinal Glass Industries has more than 5,500 employees located at 27 manufacturing locations around the United States, including its 90-acre site off Highway 603.
In reference to the possible HOA restrictions...Here in Phoenix, an HOA tried to sue a homeowner into removing his solar panels. They said he either had to move them down to the ground behind his wall(block walls are everywhere here, and the shadow would've seriously cut his output), or build a wall around the panel so it couldn't be seen-and again cutting it's efficiency.
The local court shot it down, the HOA appealed and the AZ Supreme Court upheld saying to the effect: the benefits of sustainable energy sources far outweigh an HOA's desired appearance conformity guidelines.
The precedence has been set. Unless you're trying to park a 20' panel array on your front lawn, I don't think any HOA could make you remove it.
BTW, the local Home Despot just released 2 SKU's for solar systems installed...$20 and $40k I think. I don't know what the output is for either yet...not that I'd let their subs install one anyway. I can screw it up just as good for free!
"The local court shot it down, the HOA appealed and the AZ Supreme Court upheld saying to the effect: the benefits of sustainable energy sources far outweigh an HOA's desired appearance conformity guidelines."Care to guess the total legal fees paid by both parties? $50K, $100K? The breakeven for this poor guy will jump from the usual 25+ years to, well, um, it's the principle that counts...We need to build the damned panel farms in the open desert where thousands can be arrayed to produce some meaningful power and on-site storage is possible for the power not needed on the grid.http://tinyurl.com/2vakfp
Of course, when courts find for the defendant in a civil lawsuit, court costs and attorney's fees are awarded also.
The suing HOA pays the legal fees from both sides for their failed suit.
See page 6.
http://www.cofad1.state.az.us/opinionfiles/CV/cv000570.pdf
Edited 5/5/2008 11:14 pm ET by deadman1
And where does the HOA get its funds to pay those fees? That's right, they asses the home owners.I believe it's called a Pyrrhic victory. The only parties who "win" in these situations are the attorneys.
The point IS that the precedent has been set and will deter/prohibit HOA's from attempting such suits to start with.
Perhaps a pyrrhic victory in this one case if in fact the HOA raised dues to pay the legal fees but, a clear victory for every other homeowner and solar enthusiast to come, and nationwide.
Edited 5/6/2008 4:52 pm ET by deadman1
The problem I have with centralized power generation (panel farms in the desert, wind farms, etc) is that now we get to pay somebody to distribute that free power to us. Haven't we learned our lesson about centralized sources of energy (Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell, Standard Oil, etc)?I'd much rather spend more upfront money for a local system that keeps me off the grid, and I'll gladly accept a rebate for all of the government subsidized distribution infrastructure that they don't need to build for me.Or, to be fair, maybe the electric company can go ahead and pay me full retail prices for the solar power I pump back into their grid instead of .03-.04 cents a KW like they do now...
Yea anywhere where there is a state rebate program part of the law that makes that possible is a restriction that HOA's can't screw with it. Even here in CA in a offical historic neighborhood I could cover my roof with ugly panels and no one could say boo about it.
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
What's the scoop on the proposed ITC you mentioned? I haven't heard about it.
The ITC here and now is a few grand...nice but not enough unless the homeowner has deep pockets to start with.
Make it 5 or 10 grand and Phoenix will look like a disco ball from space.
The scoop is, is that its totally up in the air.
The House passed it with paying for it by removing tax breaks to the big oil companies....that is not going over well with GW
The Senate passed a similar bill but with no way to fund it!
The current federal income tax credit for residential which is 30% of the system cost up to a max of $2000 expires at the end of the year.
If they don't renew both residential and commercial income tax credits before they expire its going to be VERY bad for the U.S. industry. It shouldn't effect the residential market as bad as the commercial market because $2000 is just a drop in the bucket hor what it costs which around here is usually $20,000-$30,000 for a 'typical' residential install.
Heck Florida has a $4/watt rebate!! Colorado has a $4.50/watt rebate!! While here in CA we only have a $1.90/watt rebate.
I don't know any solar contractors in Florida but I bet its going gangbusters there...
I am planning on waiting till after they pass the new tax credit bill to do solar on my house...or maybe I can wait till 2010 and get it done much cheaper...
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
Good stuff Dan, thanks.
AZ has a tax break of 25% on up to $4000, so it's only $1000 and it's capped at $1000 total break, so you only get it once. They do waive sales tax on solar...which is another 8.3% up to $5k total saved on the whole shebang.
Our power company APS does a $3/kw rebate on installs, and $3/kw buyback.
Another thing in our favor is that even with how inefficient residential solar still is, the productivity for panels here is still fantastic with 300+sunny days/year.
I couldn't afford to do a pv system this year anyway, but soon...
HOA? Is that the acronym for Hoard of Azzholes? Yeah, I know what it stands for, but,....
"I cut this piece four times and it's still too short."
I always find those stories kind of funny. Seems that the mindset of a solar power advocate would be pretty much the opposite of the mindset of folks who like to live in cookie cutter HOA run compounds.
True, but unfortunately there are some places where it's hard to find a nice place that doesn't come with an HOA. Phoenix is one of them...seems that all the available land to build on here is already owned by a developer who inevitably puts up a master-planned community. That community comes with an attached HOA which is run by the developer to collect dues to pay for the common area maintenance until the community is 75% or so sold, when it then turns over to residents.
Believe me, the last thing my wife and I wanted was someone telling us how we could decorate or where to plant our shrubs. Unfortunately, the only houses/lots available without an HOA were either 50 miles outside of Phoenix(2hr commute) or run down older homes in the heart of Phoenix for twice as much as the HOA-laden suburbs where we are now. Oh yeah, don't forget the $1M Scottsdale estates.
Actually they aren't making solar panels, but rather temper glass for another company making the panels.http://www.theolympian.com/business/story/409834.htmlAnd it is not clear if they are far water heating or electric. But the rest of the article does mention electrical panels..
.
A-holes. Hey every group has to have one. And I have been elected to be the one. I should make that my tagline.
Glad you clarified that one. I should have caught the mistake before I posted it - thanks.
Although I haven't found it on line, the local newspaper out of Spring Green, Wisconsin (just outside of Madison), had an article recently stating that Cardinal was in the process of constructing a 50 million dollar facility in Spring Green to manufacture tempered glass for solar panels. The article was specific about solar voltaic panels.
Point being that since Cardinal is the largest residential glass manufacturer in our part of the world (if not worldwide), and if they are getting into adding plants and entering the glass portion of the solar market in a big way, then perhaps it may be that solar panels are close to becoming much more mainstream?
Edited 5/10/2008 9:12 pm ET by Oberon
i hope something happens here soon!
where i live in nj. they decided to cancel the subsidy for installing solar panels because "it was too successful". :)
my effort to get off the grid for 6-7 megawatts was priced at 61k
now it's a question not of long term payoff....that is impossible as i only pay about 1800$/yr.for electricity, its a question of how much do i want to shell out to be green. its alot, but that 61k would put both my kids thru college by the time they're that old.
oh well
Edited 5/5/2008 5:22 pm ET by merlvern
Payback?! My oldest panel is about 28 yrs. old and some of my motley crew of 500w is close behind with some trilams from Carrizo still going strong. My payback was instantaneous! How can u argue payback when its the only viable source available.Lights/TV stereo u name it... if u want to sit in the dark and shine a flashlite on ur calculater crunching #"s dont forget the quality of life #'s.
"...but that 61k would put both my kids thru college by the time they're that old."Community college, maybe. Four years of private university for one student runs about $180K now, "free" state universities about $80K for just board and room. Of course if you can get them into Harvard, Stanford or Yale, they can get a free ride if you make less than $90K.BruceT