i tried to prepare for a slow down early and narrowed my 14 man crew down to three this spring it worked well all summer. but now i have two houses and an addition to do.
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"I have learned so much thanks to the searchable articles on the FHB website. I can confidently say that I expect to be a life-long subscriber." - M.K.
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Getting out of bed.
Waiting till the last couple weeks before knowing I was sure about going to the fest.
be pumping the idea of early registration for next year
We can imagine something that only exists in our heads, in a form that has no measureable, tangible reality, and make it actually occur in the real world. Where there was nothing, now there is something.
Forrest - makin' magic every day
Buying Pacific Ethanol stock at $30.00/share and not selling when it hit $40.00. Now it is under $15.00.
Yeah be an investor.SPEEDOSAURUS FEST '07
TCW Specialists in Custom Remodeling.
yep, old story of holding too long.
be I wanna let go but I can't let go...
Reminds me of the old story about a farmber who found a bottle with a genie in it. The genie was old, so he asked the farmer if he could grant one wish this year, then come back ina month or so and grant the next one. And the farmer agreed. After much thought, the farmer asked that corn prices jump up to $10 a bushel. The genie said "done" and disappeared. The next month the genie reappeared and asked the farmer what he wanted for his 2nd wish. The farmer agani said that corn prices jump up to $10 a bushel.The genie asked why, as he had done the same thing a month earlier. And the farmer said:"But this time I'm gonna SELL".
ethanol is largely overblown, IMO. Either take the loss or hunker down for a long haul. Maybe wait 'till dec 28, 29 to see the direction.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
I'm really not to worried about this stock. They have not even started producing Ethanol yet. First plant should be finished about Jan. with second plant to follow shortly after. I just bought in as interest was going up, and some of the folks that had gotton their shares for $6 & &7 a pop have been taking profits here lately.
When I bougth it I planned to hold it for a year, so I guess that's what I'll do.SPEEDOSAURUS FEST '07
TCW Specialists in Custom Remodeling.
"ethanol is largely overblown, IMO."
I assume you mean the value of ethanol-related stocks?
I'm a little worried about all the ethanol production going in around here. There are so many groups sinking millions into building and/or expanding ethanol production facilities that I figure we'll be in a serious oversupply situation in about 5 years.
Can't back that up with any facts - It's just speculation.
If I had a hidden agenda, I'd probably lose it.
There is definitely a LOT of ethanol production coming online in the next few years. I was up way too late a few weeks ago and watched a half-hour farm report. The whole thing was about ethanol, and obviously farmers are all over it. Can all of those mega-corporations like ADM be wrong? Maybe. No doubt they have done their homework to lock in raw material supply, so I'd expect more and more cornfields growing industrial varieties, and also possibly other crops as they look to develop "cellulosic" ethanol.
More supply should result in lower prices and that would tip the scales towards more people using the fuel. Apparently at this point, ethanol--if you can get it--is roughly the same cost as gasoline per mile, and the energy yield per gallon is lower. I'd look for improvements in both of those areas and I think we'll see more and more ethanol pumps at gas stations and more people using them.
Now, as far as buying stock in the stuff and actually making money... don't ask me.
Ethanol and corn production are a complicated issue. Some acreage is swithching from a corn/soybean rotation to continuous corn because of low bean prices and other issues. (Like soybean rust)So there may be more corn out there for lots of ethanol production. But contunuous corn has issues all its' own - Like corn rootworm. And there aren't a lot of other crops that can easily be rotated with corn. (Around here)There's lots more to cover, but I gotta head out for an appointment...
Christianity is the companion of liberty in all its conflicts--the cradle of its infancy, and the divine source of its claims. [Alexis De Tocqueville]
"More supply should result in lower prices and that would tip the scales towards more people using the fuel."Not necessarily so...The market pricce for energyu is based on oil - crude at the pump. When crude goes up so does ethanol, coal, natural gas, electricity. When it goes down, so do other energy commodities.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Ethanol isn't DIRECTLY related to gas prices. Both are priced based on supply and demand. Ethanol demand skyrocketed this year, and so did prices. But the demand went up largely because of reformulation - Like doing away with MTBE. High gas prices also played a role, but they weren't the only thing that drove the demand.I think once ethanol is in an oversupply situation the price will drop. Some of the facilities will likely end up closing if they can't cash flow. The ones that durvive will get as efficient as possible to keep their heads above water. Corn prices will also have an effect on ethanol prices and production. We may see some shift to switchgrass or some other crop that's dedicated to ethanol production. But that will likely be a slow change. Farmers don't change easily - just like framers.
Never appeal to a man's better nature. He may not have one. Invoking his self-interest gives you more leverage.
HEB (grocery chain) put in E85 pumps in our area.
I tried a tank in my Suburban at $2.46 when regular gas was at $2.67.
Unfortunately, my average MPG fell from 16 to 11.
~8% price difference for 30% mileage change.
Needless to say, I'm back on regular.
I agree with your assessment. The switchgrass thing sounded like an "if" so far... a possible basis for cellulosic ethanol, but no one has made it work in a production setting. As Marc says, yield from ethanol is lower than gas, but I think we're approaching a tipping point where an awareness of climate change issues and peak oil, and a lack of willingness to deal with the middle east will move us towards biofuel. Personally I would pay a bit more at this point to stop buying gas... I'm sick and tired of gas.
true all dat too.Brazil is heavily run on ethanol and they use many crops other than corn. Beets, sugar can, grasses...
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Here is where I am coming from-and I do have stocks that have relationships to ethanol production. A lot of the sudden impetus for the ethanol is based on panicy thinking when the price of oil was skyrocketing. Fear of terrorism plays its part in all of it too. But a big one is energy policy from the federal govt. Anything that needs subsidy is a questionable investment to begin with, IMO. Poli5tics with farming states might have as much to do with policy as energy independence does.. Like you, I don't know the half of it.Another problem affecting ethanol is that there are no pipelines from the corn growing areas to the distributiuon areas. In otherwords, you don't see a pipeline delivering from Iowa to LA or from Ohio to Maryland.A lot of the delivery will be by rail cars. Cars that have not been built yet. now there might be an investment play on this. That is part of the way my investment mind works. Sell shovels and picks and potatoes to the miners looking for the gold.As we move forward in our energy future towards semi-self-dependence, we will be seeing coal to liquid processing, nuclear fuel, more drilling on the north slope and in the gulf of Mexico, shale oil processing...Ethanol is only a leg up - a first step on a long road.Then too, there are speculators and investors. I think that the smartest speculators will be the main ones who make money off the ethanol play.Oh, and a few farmers too.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
You can't actually transport ethanol in a normal pipeline anyway. Ethanol absorbs water, and there is always water in pipelines, unless they are dedicated 100 percent only ethanol.
The whole ethanol thing seems to be a nice way to combine agricultural subsidies with "green" energy policies, combined with a way to allow GM and Ford to meet lower CAFE emissions rules all in one, while the general public smiles and thinks this is a great idea....it's a win/win/win/win, except for the logic.
and except for the fuel mileage.I wonder what age engines they are that can't handle the ethanol without disolving the rubber parts, gaskets, and seals...
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
not fishing enough...
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming<!----><!----><!---->
WOW!!! What a Ride!<!----><!---->
Forget the primal scream, just ROAR!!!
My thoughts exactly....
Where do you live? There's nothing in your Profile.
As for my mistake - I dated an old GF. I'll NEVER do that again.
Frankie
Experiment with the placing of the ingredients on the plate. Try the mozzarella on the left, the tomato in the middle, the avocado on the right. Have fun. Then decide it goes tomato, mozzarella, avocado. Anything else looks stupid.
Richard E. Grant as Simon Marchmont - Posh Nosh
I dated a girl from Pennsyvania.
"Erie?"
Ya, she was a little strange.
We can imagine something that only exists in our heads, in a form that has no measureable, tangible reality, and make it actually occur in the real world. Where there was nothing, now there is something.Forrest - makin' magic every day
Hey now! Not all the Erie girls are strange. lol
By the way I married one of your Ohio girls and she's not always what I would call normal, but I'm getting her straightened out.
Way old joke I always wanted to use.
be a Guinea pig :o)
We can imagine something that only exists in our heads, in a form that has no measureable, tangible reality, and make it actually occur in the real world. Where there was nothing, now there is something.Forrest - makin' magic every day
durango colorado. its a great place to be a builder. how about you? i ve been having trouble logging in to my profile.
You've gotta get your salesman to sit down with your site supervisor more.
I got similat problems sometimes...
My biggest mistake this summeer aalmost lost me my vision. I went to LI and saw a dinosaur in a speedo uniquely named Speedosaurus
Welcome to the
Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime.
where ...
Excellence is its own reward!
its worse now,theres a serious lack of salesmen here. the guy i did use just quit for lack of support. leaving one guy for the entire ubc. im already having problems getting the right orders in and delivery times. his wife quit with him and went to another smaller lumber yard 25 miles away. i know they would like my business but im not sure they could keep up. leaving one other lumber yard within 75 miles whom i have never enjoyed working with. simply because when i started building on my own i was 21 and they just blew me off 8 years later they still have the same manager and most salesmen, but i think there i will be a new customer and not as important either. ive got till monday to pick one before i start this house. all of them took 2 weaks to get my quote done and none of them were a complete quote of everything on my list. YES i do my own take offs how can anyone not?
I was shocked to learn that there are builders who let the yards do their take offs for them
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
LOL. Me too.
Not spending more time on South Padre Island with my grandson.
"It's always better to have regrets for things you've done than for things you wish you had done..........."