Replies

1. 
   seeyou | Oct 08, 2004 01:07pm | #1

   I ask my dog. Seriously, I started out using the Hometech book as a jumping off place (kind of helps you visualize the process better).

   http://www.hometechonline.com/

2. 
   BobKovacs | Oct 08, 2004 02:19pm | #2

   "guessing how long it will take from start to finish. I know there has got to be a better way!"

   Nope- not really a better way out there- most remodelers do exactly what you're doing.  Some just guess better than others, and therefore stay in business slightly longer....lol.

   Seriously though.  The first thing I'd start doing is tracking time on your projects to determine your times for completing certain tasks.  As greencu mentioned, you can use a Hometech book for reference, but they don't show manhours- some of the other books, like Craftsman do.   Once you know how long tasks may take, you can break the job up into those tasks, and assign hours to them.  Then you need to determine your hourly labor rate, add for materials, overhead and profit, and go.

   I oversimplified things quite a bit, but to truly answer your question productively would take hours (and I get paid to do that....lol).  If you're interested in discussing this further, feel free to email me.

   Bob Kovacs, President

   Constructive Solutions

3. 
   xMikeSmith | Oct 08, 2004 02:32pm | #3

   greenman..

    if it's just you.. you can build up a history of how long it takes you to do different operations..

   if it's you and a crew.. your production changes when you change personnel..

    remodeling is like war.. the fog of battle will roll over you.. if you want a successful business... be a pessimist when you estimate..

   the problem with that is that most contractors, by their nature , are optimists.. optimists get burned on the bottom line..things always take twice as long  in remodeling as you think they are going to

   as far as estimating goes.. i use GC Works..

    which is now BuildWorks...

    my estimating got a lot better and i signed a far higher percentage of jobs after i started using it as my template

   Mike Smith   Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore

4. 
   JerraldHayes | Oct 08, 2004 09:05pm | #4

   Hmmnn, unlike you Greenman I actually love the estimating part of this job.

   I hope as you were working on the projects you have done so far your recording and organizing your actual production data so that your building you own pile of figures on how long certain tasks take. Like Bob Kovacs has just said to you using that data and then modifying and updating it to keep pace with current labor costs and materials too is really the best way to estimate projects. I've got a little freeware program on my website called Historical Database 1.3 that you might want to download and check out and use to get yourself started on collecting that kind of information.

   Even then though you will still come across projects that will take you into new territory where you're estimating work you never done before. A while back I answered a guy here who was asking how to estimate work he had never done before, a job finishing a restaurant interior, and what I told him back then was:

   I would suggest you break down the project into hand able discrete parts, in other words create a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Perform quantity takeoffs (materials) for each part of the WBS breakdown and then you can do anyone of a number of things.... Look for Similarity to Other Tasks - While you may not have figures you feel you can use for specific things like building banquettes for a restaurant interior you may find that cutting the the plywood forms that will be the basis of your banquettes will probably be similar to preparing (cutting up) sheet stock for cabinet carcase fabrication and indeed the assembly of the banquettes will probably be similar to assembling carcases too. Sit down with your partner and any employees (if you have them) and talk about the time requirements for each component part of the project. Your recollections and theirs of similar tasks and their durations can be used to estimate the present task effort and durations. Task Effort and Duration are two different things. You need to know the Effort to set your price since that will be your estimate of how many labor hours you folks actually put into the work while the Duration is how much time it takes up on your schedule. If you have to wait for paint to dry between coats for instance that wont add to the Effort since you are doing nothing or doing something else while your waiting for the paint to dry but waiting for the paint to dry will take up blocks of time on your schedule. It is important to note that all projects are different; each project is affected by different constraints and assumptions, but it many cases this is a fairly accurate method to estimate task duration. Look for Expert Advice - Ask someone who knows. Can you ask you old boss for help and advice? Be careful with that and take what he says with a grain of salt because he could be low balling to serve his own end and there is a chance he just really doesn't know too. You haven't said why he was your "old boss". Maybe he let you go so that he could pass off the estimating risk to you and or other subs. Is there someone else you know who know this kind of work that can help you out? Use what's called Nominal Group Technique I quoting from some research I collected regarding this: ---"This is a group method that extracts and summarizes the knowledge of the group to arrive at an estimate. It assumes that each member of the group has a good understanding of the project and a general knowledge of the nature of the task. Each member of the group is asked to estimate the duration of the task. The results are then tabulated and presented to the group in graph form showing estimates from shortest to longest. The graph is then divided into quartiles. Those whose estimates fall in the outer two quartiles are asked to share the reason for their guess. After discussing these rationality's each member of the group makes another estimate as to the duration of the task. This second pass should result in a shorter range of durations. The group then repeats the process from the first pass. A third pass is then performed and the average of the estimates is used for the duration of that task."--- That's essentially what I was getting at when I said talk about this with your partner and your employees but that that gives you a formal methodology to follow. Use PERT Three Point Estimate Technique if you read along in these forums before I am sure you've seen PERT mentioned and I'm pretty sure you've seen me attack and or dismiss it but this is one of those conditions where you can use it effectively and like #3 Nominal Group Technique its a methodology you use in a group accessment too. This method utilizes a formula that is essential derived from certain parts of probability theory. Three estimates are made for the duration of a task: O: Optimistic - the shortest duration one has had or might expect to experience given that everything happens as was expected. P: Pessimistic - the duration that would be experienced if everything that could go wrong did go wrong and yet the task was completed. M: Most Likely - the duration that would most likely occur if the task were to repeated over and over again. You then plug those values into he formula E = (O + 4M + P)/6 and that give you duration/and/or effort estimate. As I just said too you can do it as a group (maybe the best course given your relative inexperience estimating) and then you'll use the averages of the three estimates for O, P, and M values.

   You could very easily set up the PERT formula in an Excel spreadsheet and use that method to at least make better guesses.

   ---

   View Image

   ParadigmProjects.com | Paradigm-360.com | Mac4Construction.com

1. 
   JohnNYCT | Oct 09, 2004 01:51am | #5

   Jerald I was the contractor who asked you about finishing that restaurant interior. If I didn't thank you then let me thank you now. I really liked the Pert idea and still use it from time to time especially when trying to give customers a rough approximation of how long a job will take.