A draftsman friend I’ve know for years (http://www.rykerdesign.com/) called me the other day. Said he had a customer who wants to get a room addition built, and he was recommending me for the job. Because I do good work, honest, etc., blahdedahdedah.
Bottom line, ‘tho, he tells me, is I’m the only remodeling contractor he knows who’s still in business.
Wow.
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Replies
Good for you, way to hang in there!
Time to raise your rates ten fold and over-profit from your monopoly.
DC
hahaha. I'm not the only act in town, but the only one of his contacts still around. And even I'm starving for work! Another month like this, and I won't be in business anymore either! Thankfully for me, my mother-in-law has been paying some of my overhead costs. But I'm down to almost zero solvency. Scary times.View Image bakersfieldremodel.com
I experienced that in 83-85. All the carpenters were leaving the trades and leaving MI back then. It cleaned out the major portion of truly skilled journeymen and when the recovery began, there was only one carpenter left for every crew instead of the three or four that was typical when I entered the trades. In the ensuing years, the uneducated and unskilled were training the new entrys into the field because demand outstripped supply and many of the newly trained apprentices thought they had it all figured out and prematurely started their own companies. In our area, that process significantly decreased the overall quality (and quantity) of the construction labor workforce. I no longer could find any of the gung ho crews that used to churn out big projects...fast and good.
Eventually it got better but the first decade of the recovery created a significant opportunity for those skilled guys that survived. If they were smart (some of them are), they found those builders who wanted a better product and were willing to pay for it. Of course, that "gravy train" doesn't last forever, no matter how skilled you are.
No "gravy train" here. In case you missed my post, I am very close to being out of business myself. View Image bakersfieldremodel.com
I didn't miss that comment and I feel real bad for you. I was in the same situation myself as recent as a month and a half ago until we took off in the roofing.
The gravy train doesn't start till the recovery begins. Then, the shortage of carpenters will create a favorable market for those that recognize it and can figure out how to capitalize on in by raising prices and getting tough with their bids.
I don't expect a quick recovery. I am thinking that 2011 will be the earliest.
Jim, do you think roofing is recession-proof?
I ask because last year I had no business at all for two-thirds of my 'season', then I caught a couple of floors but only because I had a friend selling flooring in a big-box. It was my worst year since 95; by the beginning of the winter I was living off my line of credit and robbing my left pocket to pay my right. And I wasn't the only one in this area like that.
But this year--the year everything really hit the fan down there--we all figured it'd be even worse 'cause when Uncle Sam sneezes, we usually catch a cold.
But I've had nothing but roof, roof, roof, roof since April. Nobody I know is doing any kitchens or bathrooms; no bump-outs or decks or additions; no floors either.
It's all roofs.
Is that because when the roof needs done, it needs done? While everything else can wait?
Dinosaur
How now, Mighty Sauron, that thou art not broughtlow by this? For thine evil pales before that whichfoolish men call Justice....
I've even done a couple roofs this year.While we were tearing off one roof, my buddy looks over at me and says, "I think I've done more roofs this past year than in my whole life so far."People can delay a lot of work like window replacement and paint, but when the roof is leaking over your bed....
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Seems to be the same in this neck of the woods...I know two roofing contractors with 6-10 guys, say they're busier than ever. I think it's a combo of two things; one being what you guys have said already, as to it being a necessity as opposed to a kitchen or bath remodel, and two, I think there are a bunch of folks who may be doing it now after putting it off, thinking that they're getting it at a huge savings because of the economic scenario,(though I don't see that; the guys are getting the same money they were two years ago, and the material is up.)Bing
Interestingly, the only non-roofing contract I've had this year is this 'eternal' paint job I'm on right now (three weeks behind due to weather, and going for four, dammit!). But that's on a house where I just did the roof in June.
You're right that a lot of people will put off painting, thinking it can wait...but if they saw the kind of hidden rot I am running into on this job, they'd change their mind.
Dinosaur
How now, Mighty Sauron, that thou art not broughtlow by this? For thine evil pales before that whichfoolish men call Justice....
I am getting a new HVAC system and I got 2 bids. Both of them told me that that they are doing more than normal repair work including patching systems back.And the only replacement work is for high end equipment that qualifies for the rebates and credits. .
William the Geezer, the sequel to Billy the Kid - Shoe
The more I hear, the more I think that guys like us need to direct our marketing efforts more towards the repair sector than at renos and remods.
I'm going to look at some recent big-box 'specials' flyers and see what they're pushing. Those operations might be the bane of craftsmen and the traditional lumberyards, but they do have very well-funded marketing departments.
Dinosaur
How now, Mighty Sauron, that thou art not broughtlow by this? For thine evil pales before that whichfoolish men call Justice....
After reading the other comments, they gave me another thought. Maybe, since the buyers aren't spending their money on kitchens, baths and other "wants", they actually have some money to spend on their needs. People love to spend money, even in recession. They are tempted every day, everywhere but since times are tough, they might be thinking in more practical terms to satisfy their spending jones.
Jim, my old framing boss is still giving away house frames. He and I had a discussion when the market just before the market dropped in new construction and he bid on some apartments.
I talked last week to one of his current employees and they are getting sick of apartment framing, but happy to have a job. he even gave out raqises this year!
Last I talked to him, he was a little worried about next year as there are no more apartment bids coming up.
"there are no more apartment bids coming up."Where are all the folks losing their homes going to rent????
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Where are all the folks losing their homes going to rent????
From Builders with extra inventory. Get foreclosed on your 60's ranchette? Move up into a 07 never been lived in house
We are finishing up about an 180 unit apt complex. As the buildings are finished people are moving right in. They have been pushing us as we move down the line. As soon as a building gets a COO the moving vans show up.
We have been hit pretty hard in SC also. Before we got our latest big project we were about a week from shut the doors time, I went from having 14 guys to 4. The only thing that kept us from going out was the promise of this 1 job because I knew if I could get the price low enough we could stay in business 1 more year from this job. Usually I run 1 full remodel and 2 smaller jobs at once, but it got so bad here all the new home guys that could press on flooded the remodel/ renovation market. I was bidding against contractors that either only knew how to price by sq ft or were so desperate they were willing to buy jobs, and I'm talking tens of thousands under hard cost!!!!Luckily our big job was literally front page news because of the client, I now have 12 guys and 3 other jobs going! THANK YOU GOD!!
They have framed 600 units so far between last year and this.
The other thing is we don't have too much of an increase in forclosures around here!
I believe that it's one of the most recession proof construction buisnesses. Yes, some people will defer the maintenance out of necessity. But....five years ago some people were deferring their roofs too and now the piper must be paid. So, there are always some over ripe roofs ready to fall off the tree.
Roofing is a need, not a "want". No one really wants to spend 8k on a roof, do they?
No one really wants to spend 8k on a roof, do they?
My current client would love to have spent 8k on a roof.
Unfortunately, they let it go so long that it wound up costing them $14k.
I first bid that roof for them in 2005; IIRC the estimate at that time was for just a tad over $8k. They declined but were forced to put $2300 into patching just to keep the water out. By the time they decided to bite the bullet (this year), rot had gotten to the point where cut-out-and-replace wasn't enough. Lotta demolition and rebuilding.
Their $8k paint job (which I'm doing now) is gonna wind up costing them about $10k with the change orders: two major areas of hidden rot to demo and rebuild.
Dinosaur
How now, Mighty Sauron, that thou art not broughtlow by this? For thine evil pales before that whichfoolish men call Justice....
"Time to raise your rates ten fold and over-profit from your monopoly."Do you moonlight on Wall Street or something?
I have to say that I am also very worried about the economy. I'm a very small company, currently myself and one employee, and right now I'm worried about having enough work to keep him. At best I'm treading water. I keep him working no matter what ... but don't know how much longer this will last. Lets face it, this is suppose to be the busy time of the year, and for me it's not.
One of the mistakes that I normally made when I had employees was hanging on to them too long. Don't make the mistake of burning up cash, trying to keep them. If you are not doing profitable jobs with him, let him go. Don't pay him for busy work. Don't pay him to do stuff on your propertys. Just let him go and collect UE.
jimAKAblue,I hear you and appreciate what you are saying, however, he is an excellent worker, and they are hard to come by. Also, how many sheets of 5/8 x 10' am I going to be able to carry through a house and down into the basement by myself? If I had more carpenters on the payroll then I'd definitely consider laying some off, but if I get ride of him then I'm stuck when a larger job comes along. For right now I'm taking one day at a time and I'll make that hard decision when I don't see a turn around in the market . Again, thanks for your input.
Maybe it is because you do good work and you are honest that you were able to hang on until now. I hope that you get the job and it is a good one so that you are rewarded for those qualities by getting all the market share and coming out better than ever (and that you last in business beyond next month).
9 years ago when we put an addition on our house we could barely get a contractor to even call us back, and the ones that did put serious doubts in my mind. 3 years ago when we redid the plumbing in our house and remodelled the bathrooms our contractor was the friend of our neighbor and we had to wait 6 months for him to start. That was a very expensive T&M job and the guy was definitely NOT a fine homebuilder, but at least he showed up occasionally. This year we needed somebody to finish the paint on our house and we need (the wood under the laminate is so warped from water infiltration that I classify it a need) a kitchen counter, and I have had no trouble getting people to call back. The house was painted with only a couple of days lead time and I'm told that it would take about a week and a half to have my counter fabricated and installed.
Thanks. You have a point there! Jay Leno said Robin Leach has a new show coming out... Lifestyles of the people who still have a job!View Image bakersfieldremodel.com