I have a crew that wants to head south and take part in the reconstruction of New Orleans and spend the winter (next 6 mo’s) and miss a winter in the midwest. I have thought that the idea seems interesting and I can spare the truck/trailer/tools and most of the guys are young and would take a quarter or two out of college and keep one or two supp’s with them.
I remember how most of the big Florida (SE) disaster a few years ago went on license, theft and materials and can re-supply from out of the area.
Any thoughts on Feast or Famine opportunity?
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Ya may not have to travel that far south to find "reconstruction" opportunities...
DUM SPIRO SPERO: "While I breathe I hope"
I went over to Panama city after the last hurricane and helped my brother rebuild a set of beach stairs. ours were the only stairs for a mile in either direction -- and I was surprised more repairs weren't being done. because I was licensed and insured in Florida, we were legit even though it was 350 miles from my home (jax). what I discovered was that almost every county had it's own rules and regulations re: influx contractors. I expected the place to be an anthill with repairs and such, but was surprised that nothing was happening. A friend suggested that insurance was the culprit, and everyone was waiting to be approved to go ahead and rebuild. it's possible.
It seems that in Florida the post apolcalypse patrol is more concerned with licensed, permitted contractors following every letter of the law, than they are with the tourist dollars that are draining from the area due to the damage.
I'm not saying that they are wrong but there may be a gray area there for smaller things.
anyway, there will be lots of work over in LA, the trick might be making yourself legitimate locally, and then getting the insurance companies to pay you. I suppose the fabulously wealthy will be able to rebuild immediately and pay cash -- but then again, you have to line it up.
Any thoughts on Feast or Famine opportunity?
Having done work in the Easy, it can be a fascinating experience. it can be much like Belize, in that "right away" means a week after manaña; or it means the day after Neverary--"We got's tangs t' da, char, comme on, bonne temps rollez vous." (bahn tham roo Lay, no less--cover your ears Dino <g>).
The east side of the Quarter can be particularly neat to work in and among. This is due to the fact that no one there seems to actually have any means of support; the simply are characters in the Quarter. The trick, sometimes is being introduced to "the man." You get a job, you ask how are the bills paid, and the answer is "My man does that." Get that worthy's name in writing, and remember how to pronounce it--it can come in right handy. Then seek out said worthy and introduce yourself, and what you're supposed to be doing (and when). Not a bad idea to tell les homme you're new to town and is there someplace nearby with good food. (Was so very helpfull to know where M. Jean-Pierre took his morning cafè-au-lait; even if the beignets were nothing to write home about).
Looks like a lot of damage will be east of the Lake (Ponchatrain, that is; just "The Lake" or "le Lac" to the locals). Looks like there will be good work in Mississippi, just not as picturesque as NO.
Try the AGC, NAHB links, other similar to see what's getting organized. Might be more than you heading that way, and collect up in a group to better help out.
There is already someone over on Craigs List New Orleans who is looking for help. Might be someone to check in to, see if he really does have any contacts down there or what.
http://neworleans.craigslist.org/lbg/93956450.html
Cheers!
I'm in Florida and based on our experience I think your best course would be to link up with existing contractors based in the area your wanting to work in and see if they want to hire you as a crew to work under their license and supervision.
Of course this means they make most of the money and as soon as things settle down your likely out of a job. So if your willing to put your ego in neutral and let the locals lead you could see a lot of work and some substantial profits.
Most of the crews that had trouble here in Florida came in talking about 'helping the hard hit Floridians', a laudable cause, but didn't bother to find out what the local codes and standards licensing requirements were.
Despite the sweet talk of offering a helping hand many were on a hit and run mission to harvest windfall profits from hard pressed working people. In too many cases their prices were high, their ability to get materials from local suppliers was low and their inland building techniques unsuitable for a weatherbeaten pennesulla.
They often failed to address these problems. The cases where the crews made deals, sometimes for cash, only to find out that he materials were unavailable or the roof the had completed to their standards had to be removed and redone were legion. This trend has turned off the inspectors and worn their tollerence for beurocratic flexibility to a nub. The licensing, workman's compensation and requirements for valid insurance were only the tip of the iceberg.
Not a few crews came down with visions of dollar signs and easy work. They took jobs for cash and then, in keeping with the festive atmosphere, quickly drank the profits. Often while waiting for materials. Many crews ran out of hotel money and ended up abandoning the jobs they had committed to and taken payment for. All pretensions of helpful assistance gone they retreated to their state of origin leaving the HO lacking in both roofing and money to pay another to do the job. Another reason that so many roofs remain 'blue'.
There is a ton of money to be made down south. The numbers I heard about and saw from the last hurricane were astronomical.Unfortunately, this money will only be paid out to large, licensed companies.Take it from someone who was down there and saw trees still on the ground 2 months after the last hurricane hit. I saw roof jobs (many, many roofs - even large commercial projects) that were STILL unfinished 5 months (!!) after the last hurricane hit during last years spate.Florida absolutely will not bend on its licensing requirements.Here is what I think is the funny part - the demand for work is astronomical, therefore, the rates charged are high, however, the wages paid are terrible!All i can say is this - somebody is making a lot of money, and it isn't the tradesmen :)Not sure about LA, but if you want to work in Florida, decide which trade, find out the testing times - TAKE A COURSE - get the cheat sheets and take the exam - you should be able to get the whole thing done in a couple of months. If you do get licensed? trust me, there will still be a ton of work 6 months from now.
I can't remember, but there was an article in JLC or Fine Home Building, about all the blue tarps still on roofs in Florida almost a year later.
Many of thos blue tarps may be covering homes that were underinsured or uninsured.
Re: "Many of thos blue tarps may be covering homes that were underinsured or uninsured."I think your on target on that here in Florida. A lot of folks didn't have insurance. Some were uninsured and some that were insured were insured by no-name companies that, legally or illegally, don't, wont or are slow to pay.I'm not a roofer. Electrician actually but I saw roofing crews from Georgia that had no problems with the local authorities. A lot of the finer procedural points of the rules were actually waved as long as the basics were followed. The crews from Georgia were operating, perfectly legally, under an existing and well established roofing contractor.He normally runs two or three crews depending on demand. After the string of storms he took on enough help to stand up another three crews. He put his old hands in as lead men to make sure the local methods were followed. The inspector came in thinking it was another bottom feeding crew of jackleg roofers, the truck on site had only the Georgia contractors license numbers, but as soon as he talked to the lead man and established that they were working for a local contractor, were supervised with local guys and had full insurance and WC coverage the inspector took one look at the job being done and gave them his blessing. They didn't have a permit on site yet but a quick phone call to the boss to confirm he had one phoned in granted them three days to get it posted. No problem. The permit office was backed up but cooperative with anyone trying to comply with the basic rules and operating in good faith.In my experience locally, we didn't get hit all that hard, the people complaining about the rules being enforced to strictly just don't like rules and had made little effort to work with the local authorities. Some of the loudest were clearly bottom feeding scum looking to make a quick buck sucking blood from people who had been knocked down.
From personal experience it's easy to be underinsured, and it's too late when you find out.
RE: ..."it's easy to be underinsured"...Absolutely agree. It is really hard to overestimate the costs involved in even a simple accident or mistake. The medical side being a large black hole where the money goes. I think national health care would simplify everything. Take a tremendous burden off of employers.Of course the HMOs, drug and insurance companies fight tooth and nail against national health care as it would take them out of the action. I do sympathize with people who get caught unaware with insufficient insurance. It happens and is not easy on anyone. On the other hand I have little sympathy for people who lack insurance purposefully. They give contractors everywhere a bad name and leave injured people in their wake. many of whom will end up on the public safety net. I have talked to a few of the guys without insurance and most talk a good anti-welfare, free market story party line. And then they so often send their own workers to the welfare side. As usual profits privatized and liabilities socialized.
subbing roofingto anyone in FL other than a licensed roofer is a felony
Otter, here is the licensing requirements in Alabama:
A simple contractor's license will cost 38.50 to over 300.00 depending on what you estimate your annual revenue to be. You can do any project under 10,000. No liab. ins. or WC is required.
Over 10,000, you need either a homebuilder's license or a general contractor's license, and I wanna say you need insurance to obtain this, in addition to passing a written test, a credit check, etc.
If you are serious, I and several contractors in the Mobile, AL area could use you.Jason Pharez Construction
Framing & Exterior Remodeling
Florida absolutely will not bend on its licensing requirements
Or on their "price gouging" rules, either--which may explain why there's still unfinished work there.
On the other hand, I'm not sure you even have to have magnetic signs for your truck to work in MS or AL. You have to have commercial plates on your truck to get the tax break for gas in LA.
Was a item on how MS completely lost contact with two entire counties last night, which could jsut be two downed telephone poles.Occupational hazard of my occupation not being around (sorry Bubba)
I was a carpenter in New Orleans more than 20 years ago and there was very little in the way of licensing. There may be more licensing requirements now for contractors but it won't be enforced like it is in Florida. It's the Big Easy!
I heard (from a friend of a friend who stayed through the storm today) that almost every home in the city of New Orleans has some damage. Plus there will be damage from looters. There is going to be way more work than anyone local can handle. People who can afford it will pay to get work done more quickly.
Billy
"Plus there will be damage from looters. "oh boy! Taget practice!
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Right!
Go to this site and click on the video link named "Looters Raid Grocery Store"http://www.wdsu.com/index.html
Unbelievable!
Billy
Wow, people lining up to steal! Very orderly. If Andrew was any indication, the amount of shame and greed over the next few years in NO will be mind-boggling.DCS Inc.
"He who xxxxs nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
"Plus there will be damage from looters. "
Some of who may be looting for food or potable water. Would be bad to shoot some of those folk.
The ones hauling off specie & valuable goods--they should be given Target t-shirts . . .
The ones hauling away electrical appliances from flooded stores might ought to be left to Darwin, though . . . Occupational hazard of my occupation not being around (sorry Bubba)
Regarding the rebuilding process, or lack thereof from previous disasters, keep in mind that alot of the work from this disaster could be 1-3 years away. This is due mainly to the permitting process and getting enough insurance money to rebuild. Only about 40% of the 2500+ homes lost during the 2003 Southern California Wildfires have rebuilt. Some with plans in eternal plancheck, while others have approved plans but no or not enough insurance money to rebuild. I'm not sure the prospect of making a quick buck or 'cashing in' on the disaster will be a realistic one.
IMHO only
J
I'm a state cert. GC out of St. Augustine FL. oversea's right now. I agree with 4lorn1 and Petmonkey. The obstacle's overshadow the benefits. Licensing, material supply, insurance companies, looting, crew getting hammered, contamination, quarters, accidents, getting around etc. etc. Dealing with the often hidden details of a disaster area can be very trying!
I did work in the Caribbean after Hurr. Hugo in 89. I don't think I would do it again. Maybe if I had an upfront signed contract and a big retainer. That formula would have to be right on the MONEY!
You can try it! I think the best bet is to get in with a local GC and work under them.
If you do decide to do it. Plan Plan Plan!
Good luck!
Cruzan
I'm going to try and approach this in a positive manner without trying to be mean.
But as a Floridian I think the statement "Is there money to be made after Katrina?" is a little crass.
It sounds as if your an opportunists feeding on the misfortunes of others.
Perhaps the statement " is there anyway I could help out those affected by Katrina?"
We had sooooooo many people down here with that attitude it sort of leaves a sour taste.
Just my .02
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WWPD
I agree with what sailfish said. "Is there money to be made after Katrina?" Sure there is but go in with an attitude of (long hours hard work and maybe some above average pay). Follow the local codes and get things done right, you could have some long and steady work. Don't go trying to take advantage of the locals with an insurance check in hand to do a shoddy job and leave never to be seen again. (I'm not saying that is what your intentions were).
Not looking for a chance to gouge anyone, just after being down in at the request of cousin in Flordia to repair her damage some time back, we ended up doing the majority of a whole 2-3 blocks and nearby houses on basic gutting, clean up and standard windows, new trusses, decks, roofs and closing up. Brought down a log/tree chipper and shredded debris wood/lumber(free debris removal by city) minimized dumpster $ , almost impossible to get anyway, and supplied trusses and sometimes shingles/plywood from Midwest/Georgia/Texas with nice back hauls on semis. Took about two weeks for GC license and insurance was no problem except $, worked for mainly insurance companies in good affluent area and by referrals after second job. Turned over jobs to insurance/local talent at that point. I had some connections on trucks and spirited many loads of plywood and shingles to other contractors for cash and partnered with a few drivers to keep things coming. Windows and doors were just not available and lead times were not being given 6 months after the fact locally, We slept in rotating shifts in trailer and lived in a garage or two and motels when available. Trouble was with semi-local riff raff looking to score something or sell. We steel banded or chained every night. There was hardly a night that trailer lights and alarm did not go off. We ran out of time and it started to get hot during the days and packed it in about 20 weeks (Apr 20) after arriving. It made for a long season when summer came, but did we have stories to tell.Dollars are very different now on plywood and fuel and that concerns me that insurance payouts may be coming in light on costs and add stress on the whole deal to document it to claims. I also wonder if insurance is going to cover the work I would do or would FEMA be some part of it and I think I'd walk away if FEMA took control of a area or found underinsured houses.Well I just wanted to air it out and see what other minds would add. I didn't give it much thought the first time, but I know less, much less about AL/MS/LA than FL and have only commercial contruction contacts nearby. Thanks everyone for all the thoughts, sitting on the sidelines for a while.I am in great appreciation of those posting here and advice being offered.Edited 8/30/2005 6:10 pm ET by Otter
Edited 8/30/2005 6:11 pm ET by Otter
Ive worked tornadoes in Arkansas but never this size a disaster.
This isnt far from me especially Missisippi.
Neither state is Florida or California. A point to stand on.
From what I saw this isnt just roofs , but there will be plenty of them.
Most of the flooded victims have water above the floors. There will be a lot of gutting and r&r of drywall build back from there with dry insulation. Trim, cabintets , doors , etc. and most mechanical equipment. Fans will be charged by the day and condesation units. Lots of siding and removal.
The only way I did business was insuarance comapnies. They drafted a check to the home owner and I. That gave all three parties legal recourse, but the insuace comapany always aked the homeowner to sign off any further responsbility to them. I would not want to work for homeowners . If I did it I would work direct for insurance comapanies or legit GCs in the area that could be sued by you and have something to give incase a judgement was awarded. Some insurance comanies will say they can do the work for X amount of dollars and if need be they will hire it done by companies that work for THEM. Someone has to do that and where you are makes no difference to them as long as you are bonded and insured for the work you do. They dont like gambling either. Which means youve got somthing for them to sue over. Its business. Its no different than that . There wont be any up front money. Only draws on completion and satisfaction would be my guess.
A few posts left me scatching my head. Any time I have lived from a camper trailer and lived that life , Ive made more money for the inconvience. I dont take problem with "money to be made". The way I see it you will be earning it living away from home however you do it. Expenses are high and normally diasters do pay more money or it would not get done . I dont see it as any other thing than straight business. Legal forms dont change as they apply in every court of law in the states.
There are licenses to deal with in both states. In addition they have remodleling and home improvement in addition to the license structure. La is the most restrictive . All La. websites to contracting is showing dead links at present time . [nobody home ? ]
Both states have residential contractor lisensing. {LA and MI}
Tim
Edited 8/30/2005 4:58 pm ET by Mooney
From some of the pics I've seen, a bulldozer, trackhoe,and dump truck are going to be the most effcient tools for dealing with the disaster.
Tear it down and rebuild rather than tearing out all the guts and renovating. Would be a lot quicker in cases where its just a glorified shack to begin with and the water is up to the roof or higher.
Concrete, SIPs, and roofer guys should make a killing.
jt8
"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." --Warren Buffett
Actually drywallers get the nod either way you wanna figgure it . Be a bunch of new and repair to match stuff . Their showin us their worst pictures. Commercial is the same , drywallers are to be counted in.
Should be instant work for a dump truck and back hoe . Dont for get chain driven trim saws either . LOL.
Tim
I'd imagine Lowes and HD will be raking it in.
If it were easy....a caveman could do it.
I'd imagine Lowes and HD will be raking it in.
OSB will probably go back up to $23/sheet.
But to their credit, HD/Lowes often make goodly donations to the effected areas. Lowes was offering a million yesterday, which was the same as WalMart (sounds more impressive from Lowes than WM). HD will probably do as much or more.jt8
"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." --Warren Buffett
with the current situation, I can't imagine they will be doing any rebuilding for some time.
I heard today they have 40 field hospitals set up!-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
Im not keeping up with it as I was, but the statement you made seems to be true that they wont be rebuilding for some time. What research Ive been able to do as LA sites seem to be down, is that a lot of those homes were very low on the totem pole. I doubt they will be able to build back on their own lots with current building codes and planning regulations. My guess is their will be a lot of property for sale . That would be a crap shoot to get ahold of enough imformation to figgure what the property would be worth. Many times folks have to see others do it before they will. More often than not it falls on investors to gamble it. Thats only uneducated speculative thoughts . Who knows what will happen.
Heres another twist ;
I spoke to a couple with a small child in the resturant this morning. They stopped here for a motel and are heading to New Mexico. Their home is gone and so are their jobs. They see no reason to go back other than take care of business. Her father has one a job waiting on them when they get there . For now they see their future as not returning to live in New Orleans. He said he figgured insurance would figggure the house at a total loss. It was a home in path of the levy breaking anfd from what they can understand the home should be gone. Their plan is not look back and only forward. They used to live in New Orleans.
I was impressed. I think if it were my child with a youngin in tow , its a solid plan. I could help them both here but what could I do to patch their lives in a whole town of demolishment with no jobs? The insurance company is going to bite the bullet or their debt will be written off. How could you hold someone responsable when their common carrier was at fault?
Theres a lot of people that dont have a place to live and they will have to pick up their lives and go on just from the surviving standpoint. There wont be any made money there for quite some time and I dont see people being able to wait to see that happen.
Tim
"Im not keeping up with it as I was, but the statement you made seems to be true that they wont be rebuilding for some time. "Maybe not in NOLA, but there is lots of other places in LA, MS, AL with damage that needs repairs and rebuilding.I don't know what the relative percentages are, but NOLA is getting most ofthe news action because of the totalness of the destruction there.
New Orleans will never be the same in our lifetime. The economy was fully dependant on tourism and shipping. Would you want to rebuild your house on land that is below sea level? All the wood buildings are soaking wet in 90 degree weather, which equals mold, rot and mildew. It will be months before the levies are repaired and the water pumped out. Will there be electricity or sewers in a year? Did you know the houses will now have to be built above mean-high -tide? When I was in New Orleans 8 years ago, I was shock to see boats pass by the City at least 10 ' higher than its streets! I makes more sense to backfill the area with 15' of dirt and completely rebuild the whole City.
If you are up on the roof, make sure you have plenty strips of gun nails to keep looters away from your truck and gas compressor!!! Been through one as a kid and one in early 20's and they'll steal you stuff right out of your truck while you are on the roof!!! Ask how I know?!?! Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki on the island of KauaiKeep you bags on and a hammer nearby.If you go, watch yourself, Money can be made but walking home cause you truck and tools and materials got stolen, not worth it.....I cut the board twice and its still too short ! ! !
Otter,
Before you or anyone else contemplates dropping everything and rushing down to the Gulf Coast, take some time and do a bit of research. This is from the Washington Post 2 days ago:
Now, I'm not saying your crew shouldn't go down there, but it looks that it going to be at least 60 days (and probably, more likely, twice that) before the area is drained of water and has a fresh water supply. Electrical supply could be months/years away.
Then there's the environmental mess that will have to be cleaned up. First, will be finding and disposing of the bodies of those poor souls who lost their lives. No one knows how many we're really talking about or where they are. Until they, and other dead animal and marine life are removed, the possibility of disease is rampant. After than, you have the contamination caused by the chemicals used by industry for decades that came with the flood, and the overflow of a city's worth of sewerage mingled in just to add some spice.
And, the article mentions the contamination of the Gulf for a decade due to those who have been washed out into it. What that will do to air quality is anybody's guess.
Remember, this is just a preliminary newspaper report. How much of the real truth we're going to be told is unknown.
All in all, I'm not sure I'd be anxious to set foot anywhere near New Orleans or the surrounding areas for many years/decades to come. Perhaps, no one will if it's deemed that the project is just too formidable to undertake, just so it can all happen again when a Category 5 storm finally does strike New Orleans head on at some point in the future. Remember, as horrendous as it was, this was not the worst case scenario. That is yet to come.
And, one additional, unpleasant thought to consider: Do you think profit making insurance companies are going to offer insurance to cover new construction against future catastrophes after seeing what has happened here? No future insurance = no mortgages = no rebuilding. Sad, but true. An extreme result, perhaps, but this could be the end of New Orleans.
Griff - There was another report after that one, where the authors essentially said that it isn't likely to be as big a mess as that worst case scenario. The 2nd report said (essentially) if this were a third world country, it would be a whole lot worse because of the lack of sanitary facilities. I hope the 2nd one was closer to correct than the one you quoted.
But the thought that has been going through my mind is, How many people think they were insured, then find out they needed FLOOD insurance and are SOL?
As far as some of those people, it's pretty clear they had nothing beyond what they lived in. Some of those houses look pretty bad, and it wasn't all because of the water. It's a sad thing.
There's going to be work down there for a long time. Money? That's another story.
Don
Don
I'd like to read the report you saw because it conflicts with what I've been seeing on the web. Frankly, I'm not sure if anyone has a real idea yet of the magnitude of the work required to bring New Orleans back to livable condition. Heck, the first break in the levee was in a new levee - one that had just been refurbished or rebuilt by the US Army Corps of Engineers! Not much confidence gained from that. And then two more breaks elsewhere?
From my perspective, NO is as close to a third world nation as we come in this country. Mississippi is the poorest state in the nation and NO is the poorest major city in Mississippi. And, since the electricity went out and the flood waters came, there is no sanitary facilities in the city - the flood itself is decidedly unsanitary since it overwashed the sewerage holding tanks and probably cleaned them out. There is no fresh water. Toilets do not work anywhere. Dysentery is a major risk right now due to the raw sewerage floating about and the general unsanitary conditions existing in those buildings that remain standing. Think of the bacteria growing in the hospitals still open in that city!
Reading the blogs has shown me that the concept of not rebuilding NO, or at least not rebuilding it to the scale it was pre-storm, is becoming a more frequent topic of conversation and analysis. Apparently, there's precedent for the idea of not rebuilding. Galveston was, apparently, completely wiped out in 1900 by a Category 5 storm. It was rebuilt in a much smaller size, and Houston, a few miles inland, became the substitute city. And, Galveston at that time was not built in a bowl surrounded on 3 sides by water at higher levels than it's land and, additionally, wasn't sinking into the mud a foot a year like NO.
So, I agree there might be construction, maybe lots of it. It just may not be in New Orleans. And, you're right to wonder where the money will come from. It may not come. Or, it might turn into the biggest work project since the WPA in the Great Depression - thousands of previously unskilled young people learning carpentry, masonry, electrical work, landscaping, etc. all the while they are rebuilding homes for those displaced by the storm. Probably unlikely, but I wonder when someone will float the idea.Griff
can't resist - New Orleans is in Louisiana, Biloxi is in Mississippi - both are poor check this site about contractors
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?and then this perspective from Marketwatch and the NAHBThis week, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is a story of human-interest drama, of crime, of heroism, or political repercussions and of engineering debate. But it won't be long before Katrina is a real estate story.First, there is the immediate question of where to house survivors who cannot get back to their homes -- many of whom may never be able to go back. That has implications for the apartment industry in the Southeast as well as for the makers of mobile and manufactured homes, for hotels and other forms of long-term lodging.There is also the question of folks doubling up with relatives or friend in homes that have been opened to them. If those arrangements become long-term, that could necessitate remodeling expenditures and other home-upgrade spending.It's also true that demand for repair and contracting services will be strong for months to come in the affected areas. That could cause material shortages or price increases for the most sought-after products, including plywood and roofing materials, the National Association of Home Builders points out.But the fact of the matter is that many homes and buildings are already total losses, especially in New Orleans. Never mind what would be a massive and most likely futile cleanup job for most owners of flooded houses (the potential for mold, alone, in that climate makes flood restoration a long shot): the structural damage to a house submerged for an extended period of time, as now seems inevitable in the Big Easy, is impossible to calculate.That means a large percentage of the 200,000 houses in New Orleans are teardown candidates. And that alone would dwarf the rebuilding that was necessitated following Hurricane Andrew in 1992, when about 28,000 homes were damaged beyond repair, or the loss of nearly as many houses after last year's four hurricanes -- Jeanne, Ivan, Frances and Charley."Of necessity, rebuilding will have to wait," the NAHB wrote in an economic analysis Friday. "The immediate need will be to clean up and repair damage to structures that are still viable. The repair process will absorb much of the construction labor near the affected area ..."Construction of new homes won't begin for months, and the will proceed slowly. Assuming New Orleans is rebuilt in any meaningful way, it will be years, if not decades, before that process is complete.
Re: "But it won't be long before Katrina is a real estate story."Whispers from the distance suggest that it has already begun. Well heeled interests are rumored to be feeling around the corners of the refugees fleeing NOLA and the surrounding areas. The idea being the people will, as they are in shock and having negative feelings about their property associated with high winds, flooding and dead relatives, sell their property cheaply. Particularly if these same people are short of supplies necessary for survival and money to buy them.A quick cash offer of ten cents on the dollar made on a property which, once the levees are repaired, will be worth many times that might be viewed more favorably. That the storm has them on the ropes, and to mix a metaphor, those holding the food, water, shelter and medical supplies, have them by the balls, helps leverage the offer.This, IMHO an accurate estimation of the ethical standards of the business community, surprises me not so much that it might, could, or may be happening. Rather I find it disconcerting because in a lot of communities of free-market capitalists this is seen as both normal and healthy. Possibly even laudable. Progress in action.This is IMO 'dirty pool'. This is right up there with kicking the wounded where they are injured so you can sell them more pain pills. Common decency would demand that those who will sink this low would at least be quite about it and not brag about it. Not make believe it is in some way noble. Looters digging around for the wherewithal necessary to support life is one thing. Nothing to brag about but understandable. To take advantage of the suffering of others is below reprehensible.Why oh why did they outlaw tarring, feathering and running such cretins out of town on a rail. Where can I find someone versed in the proper procedures for a public drawing and quartering.
I just read your post not paying attention to who it was from.
Got to the bottom and thought damn that was good, reminds me of 4lorn.
Roar!
You ought to write dude. Send some stuff in somewhere and see what the eds reply.
as Buddha said to the hotdog vendor .... "make me one with everything"
Thanks for the compliment.Hmmm.Umm, well no. Well, not very likely. I'm not sure who or what I could write for. If I could find an editor who handles my sort of rant, care of the Chattahoochie house for the criminally insane perhaps, and a subject people would read who knows. Can't imagine making any money. But then again if I made a dollar doing something I'm doing now for free...My posts here are just stuff I hammer out at the keyboard thinking off the cuff. Sometimes they even make sense. Fun to put ideas out there. Some seem to appreciate the perspective. Sometimes I think I can hear the teeth grinding in the distance a few minutes after I hit the send button. Works both ways.It is a hard time for the gulf coast. I'm not entirely sure about the ethical side of making a profit, even indirectly, off others suffering. I'm also not sure that giving the people affected things for free, beyond what is necessary to preserve life and limb, is necessarily any more beneficial. IMO the majority of the work in the area should be done by tradesmen in the area. Even if this means that some second homes remain unrepaired for some time. No need for outside labor to flood their market and then, when the work is all done, cause six months of construction trades unemployment in the area because all the jobs are done. Markets and societies, like trees, grow strongest when they grow slowly and steadily. Boom/bust cycles don't do a whole lot of good long term. From what I can see on the TV Louisiana is awash in labor, they have little more than unemployed labor. They don't have food, water, shelter, tools or materials to clean up or rebuild but they have lots of manpower. Sending crews down doesn't seem like a great way to soak up the excess labor supply.Just a thought.
>>I'm not entirely sure about the ethical side of making a profit, even indirectly, off others suffering.
4Lorn,
Without profit driven enterprizes there would be much more suffering. People would go without things they take now for granted. All material goods ultimately spring from someone's profit motive. Charity could not exist without production. Production could not exist without profits.
>>I'm also not sure that giving the people affected things for free, beyond what is necessary to preserve life and limb, is necessarily any more beneficial.
I wrestle with this question each time I volunteer at the local soup kitchen, but I keep doing it just in case.
Re: "All material goods ultimately spring from someone's profit motive. "Actually, and especially in emergencies, socialism is the model that works. Consider the military. Possibly the most socialistic of all American institutions. It is a command-control and a decidedly non-profit and non-democratic organization. While advancement is supposed to be a meritocracy, not without slant and troubles itself as being a private and general are different skill sets, the individuals are considered largely interchangeable. The social structure on the bases is typically socialistic with many shared resources, like sporting goods and tools, reduced cost, or no cost, entertainment and services made available. It is a social structure largely outside of the capitalistic US norm.There are some who advocate allowing private industry into this game. As long as the mercenaries maintain a socialistic ethos it works fairly well. As seen in Afghanistan as soon as this falters you find your right flank collapsing because the forces loyalty has been rented by a higher bidder. Apparently OBL was able to flee Tora Bora because he paid well for the 'spontaneous blindness' of the forces the US were depending on. Forces the US has paid for fair and square.When war or disaster strikes the holy concepts of free-market capitalism like individualism, variable worth of individuals and property rights get blurred if not discarded entirely. The rich and poor being treated equally violates the capitalistic ethos. There must always be advantage, even if it is only symbolic, to having more money.Of course once 'civilization' is restored, and the rich and powerful returned to the status they have grow accustomed to, the capitalists step forward and take credit. Remember that selfless sacrifice, heroism, is not a capitalistic concept. Getting others to sacrifice for you is. When people understand this it gets hard to motivate them to run up hills into fire. This is why the military has less use for people over 30 years of age.
>>>>Re: "All material goods ultimately spring from someone's profit motive. "
>>Actually, and especially in emergencies, socialism is the model that works.
>>Consider the military. Possibly the most socialistic of all American institutions. It is a command-control and a decidedly non-profit and non-democratic organization. While advancement is supposed to be a meritocracy, not without slant and troubles itself as being a private and general are different skill sets, the individuals are considered largely interchangeable. The social structure on the bases is typically socialistic with many shared resources, like sporting goods and tools, reduced cost, or no cost, entertainment and services made available. It is a social structure largely outside of the capitalistic US norm.
Our military as we know it could not exist without capitalism. It has to be funded.
>>There are some who advocate allowing private industry into this game. As long as the mercenaries maintain a socialistic ethos it works fairly well. As seen in Afghanistan as soon as this falters you find your right flank collapsing because the forces loyalty has been rented by a higher bidder. Apparently OBL was able to flee Tora Bora because he paid well for the 'spontaneous blindness' of the forces the US were depending on. Forces the US has paid for fair and square.
The profit motive at work. It is human nature, and it transcends the military. It exists everywhere.
>>When war or disaster strikes the holy concepts of free-market capitalism like individualism, variable worth of individuals and property rights get blurred if not discarded entirely. The rich and poor being treated equally violates the capitalistic ethos. There must always be advantage, even if it is only symbolic, to having more money.
There is no such thing as as "symbolic" advantage. (it's like a "symbolic" pregnancy). In lifeboat situations any material goods, whether VCR's or cigarettes or diapers become stores of value and media of exchange. (ie, money)
>>Of course once 'civilization' is restored, and the rich and powerful returned to the status they have grow accustomed to, the capitalists step forward and take credit.
"Civilization" boils down to property rights. Without property rights, the weak have zero chance. Socialism does nothing to prop up the weak, it only underwrites the domination of the powerful.
>> Remember that selfless sacrifice, heroism, is not a capitalistic concept. Getting others to sacrifice for you is.
I disagree. You have it basackwards. The free market is predicated on <i>mutually beneficial exchange</i> Socialism OTOH is based exactly on getting others to sacrafice
>>When people understand this it gets hard to motivate them to run up hills into fire. This is why the military has less use for people over 30 years of age.
Guess I'll be seeing you in the tavern. ;-)
Well written but, as always from the free-market as demi-God side, written from the perspective of one immersed in his own assumptions heaped on, and likely willingly accepted, by his/her social structure and society.Examples of symbolic advantage abound. Did a couple of small jobs at a water bottling plant. The differences between the premium, high status water, the mid-market water and the store brand water was the shape of the bottle, label and about a dollar, or a dollar and a half respectively, a pint. The real difference is only a mental, symbolic, game. As the old saying about trains goes: First class and third class both get to the station just a little after the engine.Our military demands capitalistic profits, as if other forms of profits were possible within a capitalist saturated economy, and yet keeps getting its butt kicked by communist and/or socialist countries. Countries often with economics based on little more than barter.Civilization is not dependent on property. Property does not exist outside of a social construct which sets up rules they find beneficial as to how ownership is assigned and transferred. This agreement can be between individuals or large groups or nations but it up to the group/s to regulate and police this structure and when the group is overthrown, destroyed or modified the rules can change. Ownership can be, mostly but not completely arbitrarily, within the logic of the winning side, abrogated, modified or reassigned.Soviets did it to Czechoslovakia after Hitler did it to them first. We did it to the Native Americans and our government, under the beneficent guidance of the well-to-do, will do it to those less well off. All the changes will be excused as necessary and/or beneficial. And to some they always are. A title is only an agreement from within the society to establish and protect, to some limited extent, ownership. An assignment that can be retracted, modified or dissolved within the existing power structure. Or completely replaced with another structure if another, more powerful or commanding society or organization, takes over.
He Dude,
What can I say? Duh, for starters. I knew that, only I was too stupid to remember I knew that. Thanks for the correction. That's the trouble with trying to paraphrase something you read. Mississippi is the poorest state in the nation and New Orleans is the poorest major city on the Gulf Coast. They're just not necessarily in the same state.
Not sure if I found the article you referred to in your post; the link didn't work. But I did get to the main page of Market Watch and from there to several articles on Katrina. Interesting fact mentioned: Total economic damage now estimated at $100 billion. But, total insured damage estimated "as high as $25 billion." Not a good sign. Only a quarter of what was damaged was insured? I don't know if that refers only to private insurance or whether it includes federal flood insurance as well. Either way, I suspect you're correct - there will be a shortfall of coverage versus cost of rebuilding.
Only been to NO once for one long day between flights (probably explains my excellence in geography). Took in a quick tour of the City. The French Quarter, of course, and some surrounding areas, the downtown business district, Tulane, Univ of NO. While that was 20 years ago, to tell the truth, everything looked pretty shabby to me. Even Bourbon Street and the fabled French Quarter. At the least, I remember, everything need a coat of paint and a great deal of litter and debris picked up. Lot of older buildings in the downtown business and financial district too. Universities weren't bad. Maybe some of that changed in 20 years, but...
I think you're right. The damage to most buildings, especially the wood frame ones, will be so great that totally tearing them down will be the only way to reclaim the area. Certainly, after sitting in the warm (hot? heard it was over 90 degrees) waters of the Gulf, full of chemicals and sewerage and everything else imaginable, and some that is not, the first floors and foundations of those buildings are going to be structurally unsound and probably totally unable to be rehabbed. 200,000 homes to be torn down??? Wow, that's almost unimaginable. Most of it will probably be deemed environmental waste too - think of the cost of disposal alone.
Put together a mind boggling level of destruction, the apparent lack of insurance, the likelihood that this WILL happen again (maybe worse next time), the failure of a newly rehabbed section of the levee, the fact that the city is sinking into the mud a foot each year, a displaced population with little or no assets to their name, totally incompetent government (not trying to get political here - I didn't blame any particular level of government - that's yet to be decided, I think, when all the facts are in and analyzed [Probably another star studded multi-million $ Commission]), and you have the recipe for not much happening in the city beyond rebuilding an infrastructure to support shipping and the petrochemical industry and enough housing for employees of those industries, plus some level of municipal government - police, fire, essential services, medical, etc. It's hard to justify much beyond that. Why can't a new New Orleans be built 20/30/50 miles inland? We can't duplicate the ambiance of a relatively small city??? And, when you get down to it, only a small portion of NO could really claim "ambience".
Bad scene all around, dude. Wonder what lessons Al Qaeda has learned from this? Flooding is better than bombing. Major disaster relief is problematic (even with foreknowledge of an approacing disaster). Incredible economic damage always results. Breakdown of civil society and severe emotional trauma suffered by many seem to be the result. And the US is a "First World" country! Think of the effect on a less wealthy country with fewer assets to tap into? Tell me the Hoover Dam is safe.
Thanks for your thoughts and thanks for contributing to my continued education.Griff
Just read this on the Captain's Blog (http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/) and thought I'd pass it on. Frankly, I had to read it twice to be sure I was getting it right:
"However, vast stretches of Mississippi have been devastated by Katrina, with towns like Biloxi and Gulfport almost completely destroyed. The area of destruction requiring attention comprises the same square mileage as England. Getting resources to all affected points within that zone simultaneously would take an unprecedented, Herculean effort that no one could have anticipated prior to landfall on Monday morning."
Get that? The area of destruction/damage is as large as the country of England!
BTW, the link in the quote works and takes you to National Review's The Corner Blog, but no further backup after that that I saw, so I can only trust that it's an accurate reflection.
But, even if it's only 50% accurate, it's still a mind boggling idea: An area half the size of England has been destroyed in whole or in part.
If it's completely accurate, it defies comprehension. How can we possibly hope to reconstruct/repair/duplicate the infrastructure, municipal services, interstates, local roads, private homes, businesses, offices, schools, commercial and industrial buildings, hospitals, plus all the furniture, equipment, supplies, vehicles, crops, and other myriad facets of daily life too numerous to think of?
People have to be the first and main concern, but where do we start?
This didn't take long."Halliburton Subsidiary Gets Katrina Deal"http://my.earthlink.net/article/bus?guid=20050904/431a7140_3421_1334520050904718221931Clay Foster
http://www.home.earthlink.net/~claypen
The scope of this disaster is truely mind boggling.However, the comparison to England is not really informative to most people. England is a tiny country about the size of the state of Mississippi and smaller than the majority of the states. Still 50,000 sq. mi. is a monsterous disaster.