1:06 (Dow Jones) The slowdown in the housing market continues to take a toll
on building products companies. Lumber prices slid again, with the composite
framing lumber price falling to $296 per thousand board feet for the week ended
Friday, data company Random Lengths says. That’s down from $302/mbf for the
prior week and $365/mbf a year ago. Meanwhile, composite prices for structural
panels (plywood and oriented strand board) gained some ground to $291 per
thousand square feet versus $288/msf a week earlier. But that’s still
substantially down from the $347/msf price it brought a year ago. Weyerhaeuser
(WY) up a fraction at $57.46; Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) off 0.4% to $19.59. (CJS)
“The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a governmental program” -Ronald Reagan
Replies
Thanks for the thread .
It will continue to fall into the depths of the unknown. Were goin down down down , [in a burning fire ] as Johny Cash would have said.
6 months from now or a year Ill say I predicted it and every one will say every one predicted it .
What say you now to be recorrded in the history books of Breaktime? hahaha
Tim
"6 months from now or a year Ill say I predicted it..."
And I'll say that *I* said you were full of it. Mark it on your calendar and we can check back.
Guess now only time will tell...
My opinions may have changed, but not the fact that I am right. [Ashleigh Brilliant]
"6 months from now or a year Ill say I predicted it..."
And I'll say that *I* said you were full of it. Mark it on your calendar and we can check back.
Guess now only time will tell...
Youre on!
Im putting my bet on the "going down " window .
Dont fergit to list it on your calendar . If you were to win this thing it would be a shame for you to fergit a ribbing . <G> That would just be awful .
Let it be known you will be getting one from me if my predictions holds true . I only have one thing to ask of us both. NO EXCUSES. <G> No prisoners hehehe.
Tim
Nice to have some good news for a change.
I guess that will help offset some of the prices of other stuff that's gone through the roof....
Y'know, Saturday on a financial radio program I heard part of, they were describing a slowdown in the US of A for the new housing market. The figures they were talking about was about 5%, if I remember.
5%? That's a slowdown? That's the economy going into the tank?
Cum'mon, folks, that's just a time to do some hustling.
Quality repairs for your home.
AaronR Construction
Vancouver, Canada
You are right as Boss and I were discussing last week.
Last week we were only off 1.2 percent on houseing sales .
If you look at last year its a bigger change so do that . We came off a 30 percent increase to a small drop. Yea the small drop is nothing but we arent climbing for another 30 percent increase.
If any of you need to sell , time is running out. All this will catch up sooner or later.
Tim
I agree there's nothing to be throwniung hands in the air and wailing over, but going from a 6-7% growth rate to a 5% slowdown is nearly a 12% difference which does get some attention.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
I'm sure that all of you with outstanding bids reflecting the previous higher prices will lower your bids accordingly? Wouldn't want to see anyone reap a windfall profit....
Andy
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig." Robert A. Heinlein
"Get off your dead #### and on your dying feet." Mom
I'm sure that all of you with outstanding bids reflecting the previous higher prices will lower your bids accordingly? Wouldn't want to see anyone reap a windfall profit....
That was funny right there . I dont care who ya are that was funny .
Tim
"I'm sure that all of you with outstanding bids reflecting the previous higher prices will lower your bids accordingly?"
Not on your life. I've gotten stuck too many times when lumber was headed the other way.
It's good to know that if I behave strangely enough, society will take full responsibility for me. [Ashleigh Brilliant]
Andy,
I know it's Monday, and the heat wave broke back there but .....
are you using "controlled substances"?Quality repairs for your home.
AaronR ConstructionVancouver, Canada
Nah, just with all the pissing and moaning about oil companies and their windfall profits, I figgered I'd have some morally equivelant fun.Andy
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig." Robert A. Heinlein
"Get off your dead #### and on your dying feet." Mom
Nice try. Not sure they got the object lesson, however."The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a governmental program" -Ronald Reagan
Well, I enjoyed it...Andy
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig." Robert A. Heinlein
"Get off your dead #### and on your dying feet." Mom
Well, I enjoyed it...
Well , thats all that counts ! <G>
Tim
Andy, I'm sorry - I should have included an LOL! or <G> in my post to you.
Now, that crack about "winfall profits" for the oil companies .....
What are you trying to do, unfairly keep Piffin working? You know he's a picker.Quality repairs for your home.
AaronR ConstructionVancouver, Canada
I didn't know that, but he is from Maine.Andy
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig." Robert A. Heinlein
"Get off your dead #### and on your dying feet." Mom
Guys, I've been involved in this for 35 years. Interest rates go down, lumber prices rise. interest rates go up, lumber prices drop, have seen no exceptions. Jim Devier
shh, Im tryin to make money off this <G>
Actually its amazing why people dont see it as a definate sign. If they thought it out its pretty clear.
Tim
Edited 8/7/2006 11:03 pm by Mooney
definate sign
DAMMIT TIM! It's definitely definite so will you get it right for once?
be fer crying out loud a cottin' pickin' building inspector from Arkansas no less gets on here and can't freakin' spell definite. What's with that anyway?"The old Quaker Meeting house is almost 300 years old and as my sawzall made its way into the pegged ancient wood, a smell emerged that told me about dried, cracked things. The ancient Quakers sitting in the well worn pocket of their silence on the darkened pine benches were whispering something to me across the years. Something about why I was here, why we're here. Lord but it was hot. I reached in to clear anything out of what was the sill, nothing but the hardened mud, lime and sand mortar, dust and shadows." -- Jer
haha
I do the same with "becuse" all the time .
I think we discussed this in years gone by several times and one was quite lengthy about spelling errors, capitals and paragraph headings . There are different takes on it .
You could probably find it in the search feature .
Tim
Edited 8/8/2006 12:04 am by Mooney
Let me know when 2x4's get back down to $1.39.
jt8
"You can say any fool thing to a dog, and the dog will give you this look that says, `My God, you're RIGHT! I NEVER would've thought of that!' " -- Dave Barry
"Let me know when 2x4's get back down to $1.39."
Probably about the same time gas does.
Or when the Cubs win the World Series, whichever comes first.
(-:
The world is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel
Notascrename,
I just guessed at the cost of wood in my house earlier. I thought maybe $60,000
I just totaled up the reciepts and it came to less than $20,000
Much of the wood was priced under 50 cents a bd. ft. and even wood I paid a premium for of over a dollar a bd. ft. (darn little) didn't bring my cost per bd.ft up over 50 cents..
Now granted much of that I bought in 1998 and 1999 with only a few odd forgotten timbers purchased since.. (or bargins too great to pass up)
All of it was mill run rough and green at the sawmill and I used either my truck or the company truck to haul it home.. I'd simply stop at the sawmill on my way home and load up..
The sad thing is I've been extremely open about the mill I buy from and since it's less than an hour outside of a major metropolitain area right on a main highway, you'd think that it would be swamped with buyers.. It's not.. I have never seen anybody there that mentions my name and the owners have only rarely every had my name mentioned..
frenchy: I am going to be in St Louis Park for one day over Labor Day weekend. Can I come see your house on Thursday afternoon/evening? I will even take pictures so everyone here can see it.
Edited 8/9/2006 1:50 pm ET by jesse
jesse,
Please do I'd love to have pictures taken for other to see. You would do me a major favor if you could show me how to post pictures. I might even reward you with wood!
frenchy, send me your contact info in an email if you don't want to post it. It looks like the Thursday prior to labor day will be my only chance to visit...so if that works for you, great. I can help you set up a free picture hosting account and show you how to do it in about 3 minutes, too...jesse
[email protected]
jesse,
here it comes, check your E-mail
nada frenchy. I checked my email...it is not there and my address is correct above. try again.[email protected]
Frenchie, remember I didn't say I lived in something like that. Wouldn't live in one if you gave it to me.(couldn't pay the utilities). Got a nice place on 5 acres backing up to the mountain with 2 year'round limestone springs. North Alabama. Nice mixed hardwood going up the "hill" behind the creek. Lots of them pushing 2 ft. DBH. By the way, great planning and execution on acquiring the wood for your place. Jim Devier
notascrename,
Thanxs, although there wasn't much planning involved.. I just called on a bunch of sawmills for my day job of selling equipment and asked about prices.. The most reasonable one I bought from..
Did some rough sketches and then added 20% which is remarkable for how close I got.. when I totaled up the wood it was so far beneath a lumberyard that I felt positively criminal about it..
"I'm sure that all of you with outstanding bids reflecting the previous higher prices will lower your bids accordingly? Wouldn't want to see anyone reap a windfall profit..."Some of these guys have to buy bikes, y'know, o leader of the bikefest...did
<!---->Cure Diabetes - Death Valley 2006!<!---->
<!---->Donate Online!<!---->
Some of these guys have to buy bikes, y'know, o leader of the bikefest...
Then they should pay for them with the dividends from their Exxon/Mobil stock, not with the flesh of their poor, innocent customers. <G>Andy
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig." Robert A. Heinlein
"Get off your dead #### and on your dying feet." Mom
untreatedwood,
I see the price fall too at my sawmill.. I can buy cherry or hard maple for the price I paid a year ago for Basswood.. Basswood is mostly staying out in the forests because the price is so low that it's almost pulp price now..
Red oak which was selling for over $1.20 a bd .ft rough and green at the mill now sells for as low as 40 cents.. again it's hardly worth the price they paid for the logs on the stump let alone harvesting the trees, and hauling to the mill plus milling it and grading it..
I notice a lot of sawmills with no inventory because they can't make enough on the trees they bought last year to make it pay.
I'll tell ya, when the framing package on a house runs 200k a 30% drop in lumber prices means a lot. Jim Devier
Thats the reason construction is slowing down as it should.
They had the prices set for low interrest rates and will till the consumer puts the breaks on it and they will be forced to come down to match the economy. Trouble is the next problem will be getting loans affordable .
During the next couple of years will be the time for people with money to build and take advantage of the lower pricing of materials becuse they are making more money off their own money so to speak. Cds are paying 5.5 right now . Back when interrest was 5 percent they were only getting 1 percent off a cd. [or less] Now we will see careful building by people with the funds for the projects which will bring on commercial and retirement age folks that can write a check.
Enjoy the upcomming building prices.
Tim
notascrename
I am building a double timberframe of black walnut timbers on the outside and white oak timbers on the inside.. bents at every 4 foot. All of the timbers total cost for over 40,000 bd.ft. of timber came to less than $60,000. how can you possibly spend $200,000?
This is a 5000 sq. ft. house made of all hardwood... The sub flooring is solid 2 inch thick timbers. Solid joists made of Tamarack are spaced more than twice as close as needed. For example, actual 2 inches (not nominal 1 1/2) x 12 inches not nominal (11 1/2) 24 inches on center.. spanning less than 10 feet. The cost includes hardwood such as hardmaple, cherry and black walnut to be used as finish flooring, walls, and ceilings..
Fancy hardwoods such as burls and fiddleback are also a part of of the package.. not vaneers but solid wood burls.. heck there are 9 6x6 inch ten foot tall burls in the entry area alone..
Just over 18ksq. ft of 12 foot up and 12 ft. down 5 bdrm. house. 4 staircases,3-stop Otis elevator,9 baths. Yes, 9. these people must not have had a lot of control. Extreme dim. 142-6 left to right, 154-2 front to back. (house kinda wandered around some). Nearly 750 lin ft. 36 inch cornice (which had to be blocked as it was covered w/ clear pine v-groove run perp. to the walls.)don't ask me how many of those had to be cut and pre-finished 2 pcs (yea, there was a vent in it) every 3inches. Hips on front part of house 48 ft. something. lvl. that 200k does not include ext. doors and windows, they ran about the same #. Jim Devier
--"Basswood is mostly staying out in the forests"I do enjoy the solitude out in the forest, but I do venture into town every once in a while."I have three chairs in my house; one for solitude, two for friendship, and three for society,"
Speaking of lumber prices and values and all, my parents live in an old-growth hardwood forest. Last year they had to take dow three very solid standing dead white oaks, about three feet + DBH in the bark. We can get 20 to 30 feet before the first crotch, and probably some millable lumber beyond. I am thinking of having most of it quartersawn as wide as he can do it at 5/4 with the narrower pieces from each wedge cut at 9/4. It will all be planed and kiln-dried. The wider boards will probably finish out at 15 to 18 inches, 10 ft. long.The idea is to keep most of it for ourselves, but there will be plenty and we might sell some to cover costs. Do you fellows agree with this sawing plan? Any idea as to demand and value?
We did that when we cleared my in laws land for their house - 22 trees, mostly red oaks. The white oaks were huge and 3+ feet in diameter, but completely rotted or hollow inside. Apparently this is common with the bigger white oaks.
The guy with the wood mizer did a great job with the rest of the trees. He made a few comments that gave me the impression that rough sawn lumber isn't worth much, and its really cheap on the stump. We paid the guy around $400 for a day and a half of sawing.
7 years later I still have some of the lumber, and we have a huge clear red oak on the ground waiting for fall. Best wishes.Treat every person you meet like you will know them the rest of your life - you just might!
Every time I hear Frenchy talk about how cheap hardwood roughsawn lumber is, it blows my mind. I can't find it for anything approximating reasonable prices. The local Woodmizer guy sells his for a fortune, but charges only a fraction of that per board foot for his services. So I guess the local market puts a bit of a premium on roughsawn material relative to where you are. Being close to a major market is probably the main difference in pricing.
Anybody out there got any suggestions for reasonably priced sources of roughsawn cherry, oak or white ash within a three hours drive of Toronto? Send me a message via your profile if you personally have any you want to be rid of!
Edited 8/9/2006 8:15 am ET by moltenmetal
I can't find cheap hardwood lumber, either. The oaks at my parents place are already down, and are solid all the way through. The lumber will not be rough; it will be planed and kiln-dried. I see prices around $2.50 to $3.00/bf or so for plain-sawn white oak, and in the neighborhood of $7.00 to $8.00/bf for quartersawn. Is this really what is going out there? Would boards 12" and wider draw a premium?
moltenmetal..
There is a hardwood newsleter that comes out every other week.. The prices on it are what sawmills get when they sell at wholesale..
Once you buy a bunker of hardwood from a sawmill that is the price that you should pay.. Their prices are broken down into Eastern, Appalachian, Southern, Western Midwest, and Pacific Their price for a few boards reflects their cost and handling hassle and won't be anywhere near what I speak of..
Sawmills that offer the best deals are those small to medium ones struggling to stay alive.. My favorite one that I speak about all of the time is Johnson bros logging in Cannon falls. They only mill about 2 million bd.ft a year so they are too small for high volume and too big to be able to sell a few boards at a time. If you come in there and ask for a few boards they will either tell you they don't have them or command a real premium.. If once you become friendly with them they will go out of their way to make you feel comfortable buying from them..
I particularly love the wood that is wasted..
If they have wood that sits around long enough to get stained or turn grey you can buy it for a song.. 5/4 ash for 15 cents a bd.ft or Hackberry for 10 cents bd.ft.
I bought much of my black walnut when it wasn't in demand for only 17 cents a bd.ft. Normally such wood goes to pallet mills and that's all they pay.
My greatest purchase was 1800 bd.ft. of fiddleback hard maple.. (fiddleback is the wood you find on expensive violins like a Stradivarious) for only 10cents.. yes it had turned grey and there were even a few boards that were rotted but at 10 cents who cares?
If you'd like to find such a mill near you go ask local pallet makers where they buy their wood from..
Joe Sullivan,
Mill prices right now are around 60 cents a bd.ft. at the sawmill.. large diameter trees like that are a real pain to handle.
Few saws are bigger than say 54 inches which if you figure you need to subtract 1/2 of it's diameter and leave some for a collar leaves only about 22 inches of saw exposed to the log. That is as wide as you will most likely get..
They are rare but In southern Minnesota there is a saw mill with a top and bottom saw which can cut a tree up to 36 inches.. beyond that you are in real rare turf indeed.. I only know of one sawmill with the ability to cut a 54 inch log (it's maximum) ..
What is usually done with large logs like that is to hack away at them slicing off what they can and losing much to waste.
Now the really bad news (if what I've given isn't bad enough)..
darn few white oaks that large are solid.. usually a tree that size is well over 300 years old and only rare white oak trees will not have major rot from the insuiide by then..
Almost without exception those big trees with solid centers will be on the north side of an extremely steep slope.
However, good news,
If you can saw blanks as wide as 54 inches there is a real premium available for those blanks. Rich fortune 500 companies and wealthy individuals love trees that massive and enjoy making tables from one solid piece of wood that large..
I would not make the tree any shorter than what your mill can handle.. A boardroom table 18 feet long and 54 inches across can command such a real premium that it will not only pay you to saw it down, it will also give you a great deal of wood for yourself..
If it's just quarter sawn boards 11 inches wide the market for dried is low enough at this point that it will be pretty hard to cover your costs..
FRENCHY:
Very interesting. Fortunately, the trees are already down, so I know for sure they are NOT rotted. The logs will be 30 to 40 inches. A friend with a Unimog will haul them to the mill for me. Mill pricing is about what you said it would be. He and I intend to keep the lumber -- he is a renovation contractor who will use quite a bit in his work. We just wondered if there was enough of a market for q-sawn white oak in 12" to 18" finished width to make it worthwhile to try to sell some to cover our costs. Sounds like you think not. So be it.
I wonder, though if prices for oak might be better here in Texas where there are no small mills, and few clear old-growth forest oaks?
Joe
I think that there is a market.Most Qtr Sw WO is realatively narrow.It would be nice for a table for a Craftsman style sideboard table for example.Try asking over in Knots.Also you might want to look around wood net http://www.woodweb.com/And other wood workign forums.But I question the thicker widest. You might want to ask around, but I think that I limit most of it to 4/4.And here is a forum for Craftsman style furniturehttp://dgroups.woodmagazine.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?webtag=furncraftsAnd this for Greene and Greene.http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Greene-style-furniture/But, while related, Greene and Greene does not typically use WO
Bill:
Great stuff. Thanks. I was thinking of having the wide boards rough cut at 5/4 so I would have true 4?4 when it is finished out. Of course, q-sawn wood is cut out of wedge-shaped log quarters, so there will always be some narrpw pieces. Those are the ones I was thinking of cutting for 8/4 finished thickness. the idea was to use them fo legsand stretchera and whatnot, or mill them. Does this make any sense to you?
I am not that familar with what or how sawing is done to maximize for max qtr sw.But you might want to check with getting some of it more riff sawn.For thinks like legs if you have 45* grain you get good pattern on all sides. Of coures you could make it quadralinear (4 pieces joined) or veneer too sides and get qtr sw on all 4 faces.You might want to post a new thread on this. I know that there are a few people here that have wood mizers.And I would not be surprised if David Doud has not cut a fair amount of WO.
Thx, Bill. I will start a new thread this evening.
Joe
Joe Sullivan,
I'm sure it is,, There are contractors in Texas who buy our white oak from the local sawmill and then pay the shipping charges to have it hauled to Texas.. Heck the sawmill sells to China and the shipping there must be really expensive! They are some of the most aggressive buyers of cherry and black walnut..
Joe,
To maximise the widest planks you might have it plain sawn.. That way the center planks (the widest ones) will automatically wind up being quatersawn and the narrower planks will wind up with a nice grain pattern to it..