West Coast Green Report
Hello All,
I attending the first two days of West Coast Green this past week and thought I would give y’all a rundown on it.
First it was waaaay smaller than the Pacific Coast Builders Show. It definitely had more of a hippy-dippy consumer orientated bent to it where PCBC seemed more to be a business to business thing.
I sat in on several seminars with small (100-200 homes a year) green production builders I’ll paraphrase what they said.
- They all thought the future of green building was going to involve sips, icf’s, spray on insulation, solar electricity, solar hot water and tankless water heaters.
- They seemed to lament a good, strong, national residential green building rating system. Some worked under LEED and there were like 3 or 4 other systems that I had never heard of before…?
- They all felt that building green is only incrementally expensive. One builder talked about a LEED silver townhouse development where it only added 1% to the ~$350,000 price tag and it would save the home owners $100 bucks a month in operating expenses.
- They all felt that having an officially green development made their houses sell faster in a down market eventhough they were slightly more expensive.
- Conversely they felt the big production builders were screwing themselves by cutting the green features out of their homes in a down market.
- One of the builders was really trumpeting High Fly Ash concrete. Said the fly ash cools down the concrete when it is curing so that no micro-cracks form.
I walked the show floor and spoke to all the solar panel install companies, all the SIP and ICF makers that were there and I visited with the guys in the UPONOR booth.
All the ICF and SIP guys seem to be coming out of Canada-makes sense it gets coooold there. They all were making a push to try to get small custom home builders to use their products in CA but none of them had much hope that the big builders were going to use their products anytime soon. I liked the ICF where the foam is mixed with Portland cement so they can not burn.
All the solar electric guys were proudly displaying SunPower Solar Panels and trumpeting the fact that they were official dealers. This is a new phenomenon to me and interesting if they think the end user cares what kind of panel they have on the roof. When pressed most of the installers said they sold the SunPower panels because of their looks and that SunPower had an aggressive marketing dept.
The UPONOR guy I spoke with is convinced that already across America PEX has replaced copper as the material of choice in new homes and that they are making inroads in commercial also. I got to play with their nifty expanding ring tool it was bigger than I imagined it to be. I thought it was neat how the type-A pex can be kinked all to heck and then you just heat it with a heat gun and it magically returns to normal.
Uh that’s about it except to say that I couldn’t get the folks at the Fine Homebuilding booth to give me a dang tote!!!!!
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
Replies
Thanks. I haven't seen very much of that here in Bakersfield, especially in the residential market - nice to know what's going on in more progressive areas. (and with the heat here, we need to build smarter)
CaliforniaRemodelingContractor.com
Edited 9/23/2007 9:01 pm by Huck
Something else I thought was interesting. The builders talked about how they are facing tighter restrictions in how much waste a build site can produce. One of the builders talked about this super-powered chipping machine that basically turns almost anything you put into it into dust. They would shred different things and reuse them on the build site. Wood was used as mulch and drywall as a soil amendment. They used roofing shingles and concrete as underlayment for walkways. Sorry I can't remember the name of the machine/company but he was super positive on it-the stuff that they hauled to the dump was just a fraction of what they used to.
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
That's a heck of an idea.
Might be something you could use at Burningman too?
We tried using Sheetrock as a soil amendment a few years back. Not successful for us. Some of those items in the photo show were a little dubious as well, the "children's room flooring" made out of shredded tires. Generally all those type flooring products are listed for outside use only due to toxic out gassing from the tires. The 15/4 foil bubble wrap from NASA? Generally bogus claim. I was at a green building show on Sunday and they had a CitizenRe booth. Basically a giant multi level marketing / Ponzi scheme, selling thousands of contracts to rent $40,000 solar arrays to people for $130 per year with all maintenance included. Nice deal except they have no factory, have never made a single panel, and don't have any installers on staff to install the panels they don't have anyway. These green expo's bring out the kooks, I sure wish the folks putting them on would do a better job of screening the applicants.------------------
"You cannot work hard enough to make up for a sloppy estimate."
Yea the bubble wrap thing is a crock, I knew enough to stay clear of him.
I've been following the CitizenRE story for a while now. Where they actually selling anything? Where they taking money or just talking about maybe taking money sometime in the near future? I've heard that they want $5000 deposits before hand but maybe its only $500. IF they are actually starting to take money from folks that would be a big deal. Last check they say they have 50,000 folks signed up.
There was plenty of real products there also. The ICF, SIP and spray foam guys for one. Only one tankless manf. were there Takagi-which I have not heard great things about.
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
No they just give people promises and don't take money yet. Deal is they take $500 when they measure the roof, No roofs have been measured to date. My beef is that most folks would be better served by going ahead and putting a solar hot water system in now. But they, at least 50,000 of them have decided to wait for the pie in the sky solar electric promise. I'd like to see a million solar roofs become reality. This just slows down progress from my perspective. M------------------
"You cannot work hard enough to make up for a sloppy estimate."
I was at a hippie fair last weekend and saw the Citizenre booth there. I thought it was a good idea. People want to do the right thing for the environment but can't afford a PV array. CitizenRe takes a long-term approach--in the short term people will get their PV's and I assume not pay much more than they would for grid power.
In the long term CitizenRe owns a little power plant on lots of houses, instead of a few big power plants. As oil, coal, and nuclear energy costs more over time, the relative value of the solar panels owned by CitizenRe increases.
I don't know anything about the founders. If their principle asset is their idea, and it's a big one, they need to leverage that for all it's worth. In order to build the factory to produce these panels they need to prove to investors that it's an idea that will work. I would be more comfortable if there were physical assets and systems already in place, but what they are doing is really a form of market research. They are collecting information that will allow them to collect the capital they need to build their business.
So far I've spent more time writing this post than I have thinking about CitizenRe, but when I glanced at their brochure it hit me as a brilliant idea, a why-didn't-I-think-of-that sort of thing.
Why do you think this will slow down PV installations? Most people can't afford the $10K and up to install PV's.
BTW, my wife's folks are off the grid and run on PV's with generator backup. It made financial sense for them because it cost less than running power to their house. And I agree with you about solar hot water. My dad has that. Much, much simpler system.
My concern is that it will slow the acceptance of solar hot water because people will be waiting for Citizen Re to pull through. Their financial model makes no sense. Would you sign a deal with a new car manufacturer who promised a $40,000 car for a lease of $130 per month and included the service contract? Too good to be true, not Why didn't I think of that.------------------
"You cannot work hard enough to make up for a sloppy estimate."
Yea the pros in the field say their business model is just impossible. Even if they had a secret factory somewhere, to install all the pre-orders every single certified installer would have to drop what they are doing and go to work for CitizenRE.
Another thing that worries these guys is that once this gets exposed as a huge scam its going to give the solar elec market such a black eye that it will hurt demand.
They are also worried about all these 50,000 people waiting for the magic to happen who could be their actual customers. I've heard reports from So CA that people are actually pulling out of a real install to wait for CitizenRE...
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer
Here's one of the comments
Sorry for the length but figured better to paste it than attach it as a word doc.MichaelFebruary 12, 2007
Citizenre: A House of Cards?
groSolar's Jeff Wolfe has been tracking the Citizenre debate; the opinions expressed in this article are his own.
by Jeffery D. Wolfe, P.E., groSolar, CEO & Co-Founder
There has been a buzz in the air lately. It's the sound of U.S.-based Citizenre, a new multi-level marketing machine targeting solar power. Their plan? Build "the world's largest" solar cell and module manufacturing plant with the stated intention to install 100,000 residential systems annually. Their pitch? You can have solar electric power for the same price that you currently pay for electricity. Sign up now and they will do the installation in September as long as your state offers net metering.
Editors Note: There has been a lot of solar industry and Internet chatter recently concerning a company new to solar called Citizenre. It's touting a "new" approach to bringing solar to the masses via an old-style multi-level marketing sales approach (a.k.a. network marketing) similar to that which made Amway early adopters wealthy in the 1960s-70s. While such sales practices give many consumers -- and certainly solar companies with vested interests -- cause for skepticism, perhaps of more concern are claims by the company and its rapidly proliferating "downline distributor" websites to establish a vertically-integrated 500 megawatt solar PV production facility by September '07 and install solar on 100,000 homes annually -- the same number of installations that Germany's highly-tuned, efficient solar infrastructure installed in 2006. groSolar's Jeff Wolfe has been tracking the Citizenre debate, the opinions expressed in this article are his own. Be sure to add your comments following this RE Insider.
Does this mean that solar electricity has finally hit the mainstream? Is solar now affordable for all and at a scale that will make a difference in the U.S. and worldwide? Not so fast.After several weeks of reviewing this new company's claims, discussing the manufacturing build out plan and its network marketing approach with others in the solar energy industry, plus reading online commentaries from a variety of sources and actually talking with representatives of the company, I have pieced together enough information to express my opinion that Citizenre is not going to be able to stand up to their promises. There has been no financial announcement for a deal of significant proportion, which would be the enabling factor to meet the product or installation capacity required. This company is building is a "house of cards" and attracting a lot of customers who want a deal that's too good to be true.So, you ask, what's the problem if Citizenre is not real or if they fail, and the public just gives early buyers a told-you-so, buyer beware shrug of the shoulders? The answer is we all lose. As soon as someone signs up for a Citizenre solar system, they are removed from the pool of potential customers for other reputable solar dealers in the U.S. Already, photovoltaic (PV) dealers are telling me that they are losing business because potential customers are signing up with Citizenre -- people are waiting until the reported 500 megawatt "largest fully-integrated PV manufacturing plant in the world" comes online this fall.But it will be September -- the deadline for the build out of the manufacturing facility and beginning installations will have come and gone -- before reality sets in for these customers when they do not receive their solar system on time as promised. Plans seem poised to fall apart, and at that point we'll have four results:* A lot of very disappointed and upset people.
* A lot of traditional PV dealers who are out of business.
* Reduced or eliminated federal and state incentives for solar electricity due to a perceived lack of need.
* A solar electric industry in the U.S. that has been set backwards 5 years.What follows is an exploration of Citizenre's claims based upon extensive communication from others in the industry, Internet postings and a telephone conversation with Rob Wills, Citizenre's Chief Technical Officer. Wills volunteered to join an industry list serve ([email protected]) and answer questions regarding the company. From all sources, I have consolidated the results in each "Summary Opinion" below.This summary represents my opinion of the viability and status of Citizenre today:Questions & Issues: Citizenre is indicating publicly that they have raised $650 million, and are constructing the world's largest PV manufacturing facility (PR Web, January 23, 2007, "Is the Sun Finally Rising on Solar Power? An Interview with Rob Styler, President of Powur of Citizenre. This would be the single largest investment in solar power ever, yet we've heard not one detail -- not who, when, or where.. Summary Opinion: What I found is that construction has not even started on the proposed manufacturing facility -- again the largest in the world. A ground breaking date is not set, nor a location. They will not break ground until they have closed on their major financing. They have not closed on their financing although they indicate it is lined up and they simply need to clear a few hurdles. Citizenre stated that they could have a plant on line in 12 months. In my opinion, that puts their available manufactured product supply out by at least 18 months.Questions & Issues: The PV manufacturers worldwide are experiencing a shortage of polysilicon. Industrial-strength PV giants have been forced to their knees, and signed up in advance for long term multi-million dollar contracts for silicon. New-comer Citizenre apparently plans on making silicon appear on command, at pricing they dictate. There has been no announced contract like every other major silicon deal. Like "where's the beef", I ask "where's the silicon"?Summary Opinion: Rob Wills indicated that Citizenre has a source for silicon at "significantly below $60/kg". My opinion is that when an established international PV companies like SCHOTT Solar cannot obtain sufficient silicon, there is no way for an unproven startup to obtain silicon, and certainly not at below market prices. Without public details, there is no way to justify this position. Questions & Issues: Citizenre claims they will install 100,000 systems. At $20,000 each (about half the cost of an average system today) that's $2 billion of installations per year. That's equivalent to 450 installations every business day -- a great goal. But 100,000 installations is more than the total number of installations completed in the U.S. to date. From zero to 100,000 is not an easy ramp up. Before millions of dollars in customer contracts are sold, we should know much more about the company's plan and its team to manage this steep trajectory of growth and speed.Summary Opinion: It turns out that the entire marketing effort to-date has been a "pilot program", according to Wills. He says they are now thinking 25,000 systems, yet the many Citizenre web sites and their representative "downline distributors" are still telling others 100,000. The marketing in the public domain is going to be revamped to "correct some issues" according to Mr. Wills, yet the question remains as to who is in control of the messaging to vulnerable consumers.Questions & Issues: Citizenre states it will be able to reduce material costs sharply because they have "vertical integration" and will "be able to produce the final product at half the cost of our competitors", according to Rob Styler in the interview quoted above. Unfortunately, the price of solar power is not purely a function of volume production. Glass, aluminum extrusions, Tedlar (R) and lead wires are all commodity products, but all comprise a significant piece of the cost that Citizenre can not affect. To think that a startup is going to beat world leaders like Sharp, Kyocera and Suntech (that are currently producing at scale) is naive. What technology is Citizenre planning on using? With more knowledge, we can then understand the probable costs of the technology for comparison purposes.Summary Opinion: I received no answer to the questions and issues above.Questions & Issues: Rob Styler, in the above cited interview, states that installation will take "about half a day". I've done installation work. I don't care what kind of fancy technology the modules have, they still need to get fastened down to a roof, and 200 to 500 square feet of panels are needed. Then a wire needs to be run to the electric panel, through an outside disconnect. On most jobs, after half a day the ladders are set up, and the conduit to the ground is run. Installations taking a day (in areas with one story homes and low slope roofs) are possible. Does Citizenre have some secret to speeding up installations beyond their AC PV module currently in design as stated? Have any installations been done by Citizenre that have approached this time schedule?Summary Opinion: Mr. Wills said he believes Citizenre can get to this reduced installation time. He speaks of automation and standardization to achieve this, but has presented nothing concrete on how to achieve this goal. So, Citizenre has no secret to lowering the cost of installation, they just believe they are smarter than the entire rest of the industry that has been installing on-grid non-battery systems. Even in Germany, which is so often touted as a model of efficient and quick installation, systems installs do not approach the half day goal.Question & Issues: In one of the emails, Mr.Wills asked: "Is it better to try for a quantum leap that results in PV power costing less than retail electricity? Or should we sit back doing business as usual, letting the government tell us they are supporting solar. Please give us a chance to move this ahead and to succeed. There is plenty or work for all of us. Solar Energy is abundant."Summary Opinion: I'd love for solar to become ubiquitous, and it will. However, it takes more than clever marketing and unsubstantiated claims to do this. It takes the following items that it seems to me Citizenre is missing:* PV panels. The manufacturing facility will be operational in 18 months at the earliest in my opinion.* Inverters. Inverters have proven to be very difficult to create. Most new inverter companies fail before they succeed, and many established companies have new products fail before being fixed. The real world of PV is a harsh environment, with difficult input parameters. No beta tests mean that you cannot know when or how the inverter will function, or even if it can be produced at your super low vertically integrated required cost. And that says nothing about the arduous UL certification process.* Integrity. Say what is true, and deliver what you say. Citizenre cannot feasibly deliver what it has promised to date. Citizenre knew that the September installations could not happen at least as of January (with no plant under construction...) but has yet to make a public acknowledgment.* Realistic Plan. A complete integrated business plan that has sales coordinated with production and supply.In its current incarnation, it is my opinion that Citizenre represents a significant threat to the solar industry. Exaggerated claims, inability to deliver product, sales to areas where they do not intend to install soon. These issues can taint the entire solar industry. Worse, misled customers will delay or not buy products from reputable dealers, putting these sound businesses at risk. This is not the reaction from people who are scared of change. This is the response from committed individuals and businesses who want the solar industry to succeed. To see Citizenre endanger that vision by over-promising and under-delivering reminds me of a teetering house of cards. Jeffrey Wolfe co-founded and is Chief Executive Officer of groSolar (formerly Global Resource Options), and is in charge of engineering, marketing, PV procurement, and strategy for residential and commercial photovoltaic and solar hot water systems. Under his direction, groSolar has become a leader in residential installation in the northeast United States, and a leading national distributor of photovoltaic systems. Systems have employed both grid-connected and battery-based remote technologies. He has been active in overall industry development as PV Division Chair of the Solar Energy Industries Association, and as a founder, and former board member and Chair of Renewable Energy Vermont, and founder, and former board member and Vice Chair of the New Hampshire Sustainable Energy Association.
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"You cannot work hard enough to make up for a sloppy estimate."
I see. Too good to be true. Too bad.
Yea the solar hot water thing is weird. Its by far the cheapest thing you can do with the fastest payback yet here in the states its just not done? I've read that in Europe its exactly the oppisite where most folks have solar hot water. I think its just not sexy enough. That and a lot of people in the biz think that consumers are still wary because of all the shady useless systems installed during the Carter administration.
Daniel Neumansky
Restoring our second Victorian home this time in Alamdea CA. Check out the blog http://www.chezneumansky.blogspot.com/
Oakland CA
Crazy Homeowner-Victorian Restorer