All How-To Topics
john ross, Web Producer
12 users recommend
Photo: blog.earnmydegree.com
Tucker Windover, who does most of his work in new construction in the Boston area, isn’t quite so dour.
“I think I've seen a thinning of the herd,” Windover said recently when I spoke with him through my crystal ball. He added that “the guys who have been thrifty and focused on really adding value are, of course, the ones who carry on. For those who have survived this far, I think it will be a strong year. There really is no low-lying fruit to be had on the subcontractor side, but there are fewer people vying for it also.”
As far as growth and making more money, Windover likes opportunities in weatherization, but says he sees long-term opportunities in investing.
“For any tradesmen with some cash and good credit, I see bargains out there for small-investment property,” Windover says, adding, “A two- or three-family home has traditionally been a way for the skilled worker to leverage his ability to economic advantage. There are some real opportunities. It may be a slow drip, but positive cash flow is a good deal.”
Scott Grice, who is primarily a remodeling contractor in Portland, Ore., summed up his next year in one word: “pain.” Then he saw a more complete picture, saying, “We are still a wounded animal crawling along.”
Grice still has steady work but has had to shift to projects smaller in scope.
“I don’t really see people being confident enough to sink enough money into building their dream kitchen,” Grice said yesterday from his home office. “Even people who think they might want to do stuff have to go to the bank, and the short availability to credit is shrinking the amount of money that people have to spend.”
In the next year, Grice says that most of the projects he’s looking at are of a size that people can afford mostly out of pocket that are also value upgrades to their homes.
Mike Guertin, a builder and remodeler in New England as well as editorial adviser for Fine Homebuilding, says that new construction is dead and is going to stay dead. He also advises to prepare for a long rebound.
“We won’t see a turnaround until 2013,” he says. “It’s going to take a while for homeowners to get to the point where they will spend a big chunk of money again.” Guertin says he doesn’t see remodeling taking up the slack either. “Remodeling is going to be slow. I know guys who are swamped, but they carved out a niche years ago.” Guertin explained that “the people who have superspecialized in an area and have establish themselves at the top are all doing pretty well.”
For opportunities, Guertin is encouraged by weatherization and says that once we figure out how federal weatherization money will trickle down, there might be some opportunity for contractors who have applicable certifications.
Rick Arnold, who specializes in weatherization and energy-efficient upgrades through his contracting business, is even more optimistic, saying that “if [contractors] can adapt, there is a whole new industry for the local contractor. All they have to do is use their existing skills and apply it to the knowledge of weatherization.”
But he also said the opportunity will primarily benefit those contractors who make the effort to get certified. Organizations such as the Building Performance Institute “have really improved in training and accountability. [Weatherization] is the hottest training and certification program out there right now.”
As for my prediction, I am spending any bonus I get on weatherization upgrades.
posted in: Blogs, business, weatherizing, prediction
|
|
Contractors See Lean Times and Big Opportunities in 2010
comments (14) December 16th, 2009 in Blogs
john ross, Web Producer
12 users recommend
Photo: blog.earnmydegree.com
Everyone wants a crystal ball to see what the building industry is going to do next year. While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do have something sitting on my desk that is nearly as good: my telephone.
I called four guys I know: Rick Arnold, Mike Guertin, Tucker Windover, and Scott Grice. All of them are close to the ground in the building industry, either working as contractors or working closely with contractors. Just as the US Commerce Department released new data that shows new home starts are on the upswing for the first time since 2005, I asked them for their take on what the next year will be like, and here is what they said.
First, don’t expect a big turnaround. All four prognosticators said the financial pain runs too deep.
Tucker Windover, who does most of his work in new construction in the Boston area, isn’t quite so dour.
“I think I've seen a thinning of the herd,” Windover said recently when I spoke with him through my crystal ball. He added that “the guys who have been thrifty and focused on really adding value are, of course, the ones who carry on. For those who have survived this far, I think it will be a strong year. There really is no low-lying fruit to be had on the subcontractor side, but there are fewer people vying for it also.”
As far as growth and making more money, Windover likes opportunities in weatherization, but says he sees long-term opportunities in investing.
“For any tradesmen with some cash and good credit, I see bargains out there for small-investment property,” Windover says, adding, “A two- or three-family home has traditionally been a way for the skilled worker to leverage his ability to economic advantage. There are some real opportunities. It may be a slow drip, but positive cash flow is a good deal.”
Scott Grice, who is primarily a remodeling contractor in Portland, Ore., summed up his next year in one word: “pain.” Then he saw a more complete picture, saying, “We are still a wounded animal crawling along.”
Grice still has steady work but has had to shift to projects smaller in scope.
“I don’t really see people being confident enough to sink enough money into building their dream kitchen,” Grice said yesterday from his home office. “Even people who think they might want to do stuff have to go to the bank, and the short availability to credit is shrinking the amount of money that people have to spend.”
In the next year, Grice says that most of the projects he’s looking at are of a size that people can afford mostly out of pocket that are also value upgrades to their homes.
Mike Guertin, a builder and remodeler in New England as well as editorial adviser for Fine Homebuilding, says that new construction is dead and is going to stay dead. He also advises to prepare for a long rebound.
“We won’t see a turnaround until 2013,” he says. “It’s going to take a while for homeowners to get to the point where they will spend a big chunk of money again.” Guertin says he doesn’t see remodeling taking up the slack either. “Remodeling is going to be slow. I know guys who are swamped, but they carved out a niche years ago.” Guertin explained that “the people who have superspecialized in an area and have establish themselves at the top are all doing pretty well.”
For opportunities, Guertin is encouraged by weatherization and says that once we figure out how federal weatherization money will trickle down, there might be some opportunity for contractors who have applicable certifications.
Rick Arnold, who specializes in weatherization and energy-efficient upgrades through his contracting business, is even more optimistic, saying that “if [contractors] can adapt, there is a whole new industry for the local contractor. All they have to do is use their existing skills and apply it to the knowledge of weatherization.”
But he also said the opportunity will primarily benefit those contractors who make the effort to get certified. Organizations such as the Building Performance Institute “have really improved in training and accountability. [Weatherization] is the hottest training and certification program out there right now.”
As for my prediction, I am spending any bonus I get on weatherization upgrades.
What do you think? Take our poll and let us know.
posted in: Blogs, business, weatherizing, prediction
|
|
|
|
See what's happening at
-
How to Paint Fiber-Cement Siding
Painter Jim Lacey shares some tips for caulking and painting fiber-cement siding. read more
|
|
Comments (14)
In general one thing that is usually missed - including by FHB articles I've seen - is jsut how localized the construction and real estate markets are. If I am in the stock market by owning shares of GE it really doesn't matter if I live in Minnesota or Madagscar. If I am in the real estate market by owning [or building] a home it makes a huge difference where it is. Northern Minnesota, where I live, has not been as hard hit as Florida or Arizona because we never wandered so far into the LooneyTunes wilderness in 2001-2005.
One of the advantages of having almost 40 years experience [gawd could that be true??...it is true] is that I've been thru some tough downturns before. This might be the worst one, but 1973 and 1982-84 were pretty ugly. And the way we build was changed by those recessions so expect longlasting changes from this one too.
Anyway, things aren't good but I've been operating on the model that you can't throw something at me that I won't do and so I have not run out of work. Also, if you are bidding and pricing like nothing has changed you are kidding yourself. Is the sky falling like some of the guys here are talking? Probably not - don't know if that will disappoint them or not.
Posted: 1:45 pm on January 2nd
What is changing is the advent of fossil fuel price volatility and the demands of climate change. We are in an age of transition that will create new ways of living that will originate from local markets rather than national trends. Future homeowners want to have a greater say in what is being built rather than just consuming what the market creates for them. Builders and homeowners will need to develop a mutually beneficial relationship to create the transitional market.
We also need to be more aware of using locally produced materials in our projects. Oil based materials will have the greatest price volatility in the future. Energy efficiency, e.g. super insulated designs, will become standard requirements for new homes as well as the retrofit market. Most importantly, we need to rediscover what is enough.
Posted: 11:00 am on December 28th
We now have not only blatant "government" theft of our wealth, but whole "boards" and certifying "agencies" and "committees", made up of individuals who set themselves up to make $$ off other people's labor. Another scam for those who do nothing to take what they can claim for themselves from those who actually do the producing. This country is so "layered" with bureaucracy, it's a wonder anyone has any $$ to take home after paying off everyone's hand stuck in their wallets!!!
It's reached the point of absurdity.
It really has.
The way I see it, all these certifying "groups", "boards" and "agencies" will "certify" themselves out of jobs as the economy collapses - and hopefully we'll have a few government agencies disappear, too. The only people who will survive the coming financial meltdown of the U.S. $$ are those who have set up their own networks and good reputation within their local communities.
The $$ is going to die, people. Better get yourselves ready - psychologically. The real "builders" will always do OK. It's the bureaucrats in the industry that will suffer the most - and rightfully so, since most of them don't even know how to use a hammer and I never have yet seen a computer actually build anything livable yet. Similar to the AMA in health care. It's made up of medical bureaucrats who don't actually practice medicine. Yet they think they can speak for and dictate to the millions of real health care practitioners. Well, a lot of those practitioners are bucking the AMA, and rightfully so. I expect all industries will be getting rid of the elitist bureaucrats who do nothing but take what they can get for themselves from others while putting the squeeze on them. As times get more lean, the fat will be lopped off. America's economic meltdown will be a great opportunity to trim the excess waste and fat out of all segments of society.
The truly skilled and honorable will survive. The rest will suffer and either get their act together and actually be of real benefit to humanity, or die. It's all part of the cyclical "cleansing" of Life.
Posted: 6:28 am on December 28th
Posted: 5:51 am on December 27th
I believe the sooner one can wean his business from the strictures of the government, the sooner he will be free to be creative in exploring ways to survive the times. Too tax funded programs that look good, but have a hook embeded in them.
Posted: 2:55 pm on December 22nd
Posted: 8:16 pm on December 21st
I have tried and tried to be more optimistic about the state of affairs at hand, but now I'm more pessimestic because there are no jobs out there to be had by a 50 year old man. The big Corporations will only hire younger people, people that they claim will make a career out of the fields they were hired in to. Also, being a veteran from the Military does'nt even help out these days. I think the trend for the construction industry should lean more towards going green,
however, and that people need to rely on the wind and sun for power these days. Stop paying those ungodly high power
rates...generate your own power for next to nothing. Before long, everyone will jump on board and the Power Companies will be begging Obama to bail them out too, so that the big executives can get their bonuses.
Posted: 10:17 am on December 21st
Posted: 9:48 am on December 21st
Posted: 9:09 am on December 21st
Posted: 4:49 am on December 21st
I have a small claim and lean on a jobs I am not getting paid for my credit with my suppliers is maxed out and I am about to fall behind on my mortgage another month. And never mind Christmas.
So sure I am trying to stay positive but when your income is cut in half and your expenses stay the same or some went up (fuel costs) something has to give.
Of course we will survive people in the depression who lost everything and were reduced to hobos hopping freight trains to go out and look for work survived and many latter found work and started over and eventually rebuilt their lives. What does not kill you makes you stronger but it still hurts.
Posted: 8:19 am on December 19th
There's opportunity out there in spades you just need to build a product that addresses that need. The big builders will wait till things change, (I don't think they will) but the rest of us need to look at what makes sense in the new world economy. Sure the 5,000 sq ft granite ladened home may become a relic but who said you couldn't build a FINE smaller home that was just right for the new world.
Posted: 9:37 am on December 18th
Posted: 9:13 am on December 18th
Posted: 7:17 am on December 17th
You must be logged in to post comments. Click here to login.