I’m planning on breaking ground on a 1800 sf shop this spring. OSB prices here in Boise, Idaho are $11.79 right now (up about .80 from a recent low of $10.99).
What’s the prevailing sentiment on whether prices are going to (a) stay about at this range; (b) increase; or (c) decrease?
I’ll go buy a couple of bunks and store them if I thought prices were heading back up to the $15 to $19 range they were last summer…..
–Ken
Replies
1/2" OSB in S.E. British Columbia: CDN$19.10 + taxes
I'm looking in my crystal ball and it says "depends on if Mr Bush decides to "liberate" any countries this year..." ;-)
Also, here is a thought: I wouldn't be surprized if the tsunami is gonna effect building material prices.
Or use it as an excuse.
Be conspiracy mindedSphere, not greencu, invented the cyberwedgie."
Correction...checked last night as I was picking up some other stuff and the price is now up to $12.79.......I guess I'll be laying in a couple of bunks. Now I just have to figure out where I'm going to store them.....
Here prices are going up and because of the tsunami, so we are told. 5/8ths cdx what from 15.6 a sheet to 18.75 in the past two weeks
and I bet not a sheet has headed over seas yet
prices , when the economy is good or building is booming, will always go up in summer
when the dust settles in the middle east, we will supply materils to rebuild , and prices will go up, fotunately and unfortuantely that will be a few years before the dust settles....... what did I hear last night 4-5 years before we start pulling out of Iraqinam now
after any disaster, caused by nature or humans, sheeting is the one that seems to take the biggest jump the fastest.
If you got the bucks ( and few of us do) and a place to keep it, you might want to bunk it.
we're 10.98 on 7/16th's
Haven't noticed any increases in the last 3-4 weeks. Could be a trend ??????-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"It is so, because Piffin tells me it is."
Sounds like it would be worth it to buy enough now for the whole project since your going to need it anyhow.
Ya, secure storage. Hardly worth stockpiling if someone's going to rip you off.
Sphere, not greencu, invented the cyberwedgie."
Called around today a bit. The usual building supply outfits were in the mid-$13 range; Lowe's was $11.79, so I got Home Depot to give me the "match the price plus 10% off" deal and bought most all I think I'll need for this project....so I can almost guarantee the price of OSB is going to go down to about $8 within the next couple of weeks..... :-)
...bought most all I think I'll need for this project....so I can almost guarantee the price of OSB is going to go down to about $8 within the next couple of weeks.....
Sounds like buying in the stock market.
Ain't no roar in that comment. lol
be cryin'
Exactly. Why do you think I know which direction prices are going to go now? :-)
However, you pretty much know for a fact what the OSB price bottom could be at it's lowest and it is a small increment in comparison to where the top has a potential of going.
But unlike the market, the price has a greater tendency to climb faster and bottom slower.
Gee, just about talked myself into going to get some.
be wondering
Started framing last week on the shop. Lowe's ad for OSB yesterday was $7.14......
$9.98 here in tampa, down from $12 2 1/2 weeks ago-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
Oh man.
Well,
I ah,
ya know...
A person with no sense of humor about themselves is fullashid
Just wondering if the $7.14 osb is stamped for structural use or the board up window stuff.
I bought 8 bunks in April at $9.00 which was the cheapest I had seen in quite a while and based on the work I had signed up could use at least that much.
Now Lowe's has it at $7.14 and I'm buying it there.
I hope some hurricanes hit soon because I still have four bunks in my wherehouse I want to feel good about using.
Structural. Home Depot dropped their price to match. --Ken
Over the past week the local HD has had an "I'm sorry, but we're out of OSB" sign up. Price now up to $13.64. --Ken
Somebody in my town said we dont have any OSB in town. I thot it odd but when I called it wasnt to be found.
Tim
I can't recall the price, last I saw it was about 12 bucks, heading up from a recent low.
I was at HD today and they had bunk after bunk of OSB instock, much more then normal.
About 3 or 4 weeks ago my local HD, in MA, was at $7 to $7.50. I was in there this past thursday and it was $15 or $16.
I did a few online searches and found that the price increase should be very short term. Basically all the idiots say the hurricane and thought "I need to buy plywood and osb before they start building down there". All these nitwits thinking osb would be in demand for rebuilding instantly caused a dramatic increase in demand that combine with stable supplies shot the price up. With the slack in demand that will surely result in the up coming month or two because people bought now, and also with the reduced demand as we near winter, prices should start going down as the product is delivered.
1/2" $13.99 at Home Depot in Minneapolis today
Menards in Pewaukee, WI last Friday, "Probably sold out for another month and a half. Builders have bought it all up."
Day late and a dollar short. Now I got my wife hollering at me 'cause I didn't go out yesterday and buy my OSB at $10.99.
Today at Lowe's the price is $13.95 per and across the street at Home Depot it's $14.98.
My next job, starting after the first of the year, will take a couple of bunks that I figured in at only $13 per. And, no, I don't have an escalation clause in my contract. Maybe the customer will feel sorry for me?<G>
See, there's another good reason to have a mark up on materials. (I do).
Edit: While I was at Riverfest, Lowes, and I'm sure H/D, too, had OSB at ~$7.50. Quite a jump, eh?
Edited 9/21/2005 11:45 am ET by RalphWicklund
Arrr, matey, serves ye right fer figgering it at $13 when it was $7.50, ye dastardly pirate!
Seriously, I feel your pain. I need a unit to do my roof. It went up 50% plus here recently, so the old roof is gonna last another season.
$9.99 on Sept 12th, today $14.99 @ the Depot.
Hopefully a lot of this is panic buying due to the hurricane. It might settle down in a week or 2.
The best executive is the one who has sense enough to pick good men to do what he wants done, and self-restraint enough to keep from meddling with them while they do it. [Theodore Roosevelt]
Hopefully a lot of this is panic buying due to the hurricane. It might settle down in a week or 2.
And how long before the actual rebuilding starts and supply goes down?jt8
"Striving for excellence motivates you; striving for perfection is demoralizing." --Harriet Braiker
"how long before the actual rebuilding starts and supply goes down?"
I don't look for that to be a big factor.
It's not like every house in the hurricane area can be built all at one time. There will be lag time to get permits, bank loans, insurance settlements, etc. And it's not like there are sudeenly 10 times the number of contractors down there to rebuild everything.
When hurricane Andrew hit Florida, plywood prices skyrocketed. But then they settled down pretty quickly. I think the same thing will happen here.
I admit, this is basically a guess. But it's probably as valid as anyone else's here.
I would also allow that having BOTH hurricanes hitting fairly close together isn't going to help things any. The combined effect may make some difference.
Save California. when you leave, take someone with you.
"It's not like every house in the hurricane area can be built all at one time. There will be lag time to get permits, bank loans, insurance settlements, etc. And it's not like there are sudeenly 10 times the number of contractors down there to rebuild everything. "
You are absolutely correct about this. I was living in the Bay Area in '91 when there was a major wildfire that destroyed about 2500 homes in the Oakland/Berkeley hills. Tradesmen were coming from everywhere to get in on the work, but it took many years for a lot of those houses to get rebuilt. Some of it was going on in the late 90s and many lots were not rebuilt at all, as people chose to move elsewhere and not deal with the hassle of building.
Certainly there's at least one major difference, in that the Bay Area absorbed a lot of people into existing housing, which probably can't happen in the southeast, but I still say you're right, it won't all happen suddenly down there.
" It's not like every house in the hurricane area can be built all at one time. There will be lag time to get permits, bank loans, insurance settlements, etc. And it's not like there are sudeenly 10 times the number of contractors down there to rebuild everything."
I know a lot about that .
After a storm hits and its big . It ties up all the good contractors. They hire all the good carps which really is stupid on the carps part . [sorry] Thats when they should become contractors at least for a while . Cant beat the timming for a date to go out on your own. Prices go way up for labor , material jumps before they are ready for it in aticipation. LIke now . Mills are running around the clock now before the orders come in . They cheat. They are trying to sell all they can get made while its high. Run for the money. Much like crops. They get overloaded and the price drops. Mean while the customer is gettin it up there butts. That slows down building and the price comes down slowly till they start buying it again. Known as futures.
Heres the point to the post ;
They wont have enough money to build back today or tomorrow when the contractor and his subs are so busy they cant take a whizz. Materials already got into the action and they are up 50 percent . Then they sit in their leather chairs and watch futures. The people control it and I kinda wish they knew it , except I make money off it too.
Remember they had full coverage like 10 years to 5 ago. Wont do it now. Will later. They cant pay 50 percent over unless they can borrow up. Will they? Thats why they call it futures.
Tim
You know, I wonder why some of these SIP companies don't take advantage of the hurricanes/et al to really kick business in the pants.
They work in the relative comfort of the SIP factory, and can pump out quickly-to-assemble homes. My impression is that they're less restricted by time/staff restraints than a typical framing crew would be.
From the HO perspective, rather than waiting 6 months for a framer to get around to your house, you've got the SIP's arriving in two weeks. Granted, you've got the finishing crew's schedule to deal with, but you could be dried in fairly quickly.jt8
"Striving for excellence motivates you; striving for perfection is demoralizing." --Harriet Braiker
Just before Katrina hit it was 9.98. I bought a large stack cuz I knew It would go up or run out. So far FL has been OK (last I checked) on OSB availabilty but the price did go up-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
They will settle down but I think it will take 4 to 6 weeks. What drove the price up so quickly were people thinking back to Andrew, Iraq and other demand needs and right when Katrina hit they all went out and bought everything up. That demand surge is gone, so now we just need the supply to catch up. It will and with fall in days and building starting to slow for the winter I think by the end of October it should be pretty close to normal.
By the way, I've been playing around with your take off spreadsheet you sent me, that is one heck of a spreadsheet. I haven't had too much time to mess with it enough to understand where all the formula's are pulling from. I like it though, nice job.
Glad you like the spreadsheet. If you can't figure out where the formulas reference, click in a cell and hit the "F2" button. That highlights whatever cells are referenced in the formulas in that cell. .Regarding OSB prices again - There's one thing I forgot to mention. When the market is really volatile (like now) it's worth your time to check around on pricing. One lumberyard may have been carrying a whole bunch on hand, and may be holding their prices. While the next one may have been almost out, and had to order a semi load at the higher prices. The big boxes in particular tend to change their prices almost daily, and follow the market closely. So they're a good buy when the market is dropping, but not when it's rising.Sometimes if a lumberyard has just raised prices they'll stil honor old prices if you ask, or have just recently gotten a quote from them on a project. It's worth asking.
Leadership over other human beings is exercised when persons with certain motives and purposes mobilize, in competition or conflict with others, institutional, political, psychological, and other resources so as to arouse, engage, and satisfy the motives of followers. [James MacGregor Burns]
I talked to the manager at my local abc supply (siding/roofing contractors only) and he said that the shingle companies are starting to raise their prices a little right now and said that those companies said other price increases would be coming up. With them its mostly the energy costs. He did say that just just put in some of their monthly orders for 1/2" roof sheathing and they could not get a lock in price. The suppliers told them they would price it at the price of the delivery only. You know the next month will be tough when the yards and supply houses can't get lock in prices.
I paid 9.99 approx 4-5 weeks ago
today it was 17.22!!!!!!!!!!!!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
Anyone with a forecast on whether its going to go down this winter?
Actually... I really would like to see the ply prices come back down. IRC, the 3/4" t&G was $30 last week when I was at Lowes. If you're gonna shell out that much, you might as well go the extra coupla bucks and get the Advantech.
jt8
"Real difficulties can be overcome; it is only the imaginary ones that are unconquerable. " --Theodore N. Vail
Price is still at $9.99 at the Lowe's in Port Orange, FL.
According to the Pro-desk there is a freeze on their price increase until the hurricane season is over. Would have been nice if everyone worked like that.
$14.98 in Jacksonville.
I wish my crystal ball was working better. I'd make a decision to buy another bunk or two and transport them back to JAX. Storage is a problem.
Son of gun, the price I just quoted was at our Lowes here in Tampa!! WTH????-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
Looked at the Lowe's stores within 50 miles of Tampa - 17 stores.
ONLY 2 stocked OSB at $17.22. Not stocked at the others.
#1629 4210 S Dale Mabry
#1003 6201 Commerce Palms
Kind of uncomfortable to be bendin' over like that, eh?
There it goes, again!
No more $9.99
$15.67 in Port Orange and I got another "I TOLD YOU TO BUY MORE!" from the wife.
$15.95 in Jax (also Lowe's)
and a whopping $20 at my regular lumberyard.
basturds-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
Here in Boise over the past several weeks it jumped as high as $16.99 (from low of $7.14 prior to Katrina). Back down to $13.99 now....
1/2" OSB at Home Depot in Minneapolis
10/17 - $16.88
10/19 - $15.88
OSB 12.99 at the Local Lowes. (Seattle Area)
In late August they were selling bunks for 5.99 !! I should have bought them out but my mind was on something else that day. In early Oct. up to 16.99, yeeouch! But I noticed today that it was down to 12.99. The lumber dude there said that they re-opened the plant in Alberta that burned down last year so maybe prices will settle down. One can hope.
16.99 for OSB??!!
T.
Hope yer right Boss.
Reading today the latest fed hike started knocking the stuffing out of building stocks. Apparently the plan is to continue with small increments.
A slowdown in housing starts might put suppliers into an overstock position so you can get a decent buy on a bunk for yer next spec house.
be poked
r u a feckless dastard?
Thats funny it dropped today. <G>
Just kiddin .
Tim
I'm finally building my house...after waiting over 4 months for the construction loan and the prices of everything go steadly up.$17.00 for 3/4 t&g underlayment ...Sept...$26+ Oct...lets not talk about doug fir framing lumber,or Hardi Plank siding or roofing or the spray foam insulation I want installed.....I am having my doubts I'll be able to afford the price increases...I made my estimated cost "tight"
....no good deed will go unpunished...
You start the shop yet?
7/16 osb just hit $9.86 here in northern ohio.
Eenie,weenie...chili-beanie
sobriety is the root cause of dementia.
I'm in the queue for the excavator to get the footings dug.....
Lowe's advertised a 4 day "special" of $9.95 or something like that here today. A couple of days ago I was in Home Depot and saw they had it at around $12.85 or something......
Maybe I can stockpile some 2x6's to get those prices to start coming down, too... :-)
Edited 5/12/2005 6:43 pm ET by Ken Howell
HD does have a pretty leanant return policy if it does dive ;)
i'm not sure if your talking 7/16 or 1/2. 7/16 at lowes 10.59 1/2 is 12.59 now you got me to thinking that i should stockpile a couple bunks. i did price advantech 3/4 today- 34.50 i about fell over . i think the next floor i'll sheet in oak at 42. , poly it and call it good. lol larry
hand me the chainsaw, i need to trim the casing just a hair.
7/16 is pretty much the standard around here....in fact I don't know if I've ever seen 1/2 stocked.....
here our hd has both 7/16 ,1/2. but i have some bad news for you, i went out because of this post and bought 2 bunks. i assure you that now it's a absolute that osb will never sell for over 8 again. the iraquis are going to ship that 100 millon bd ft back and there will be a surplus,and i'll be stuck with this stuff! larry by the way have you noticed in all the pics of iraq you've never seen one bldg with osb in the background,could that have been a scam to raise prices to 17 a sheet?hand me the chainsaw, i need to trim the casing just a hair.
Well, since gas is going to go up to $5 a gallon, just think of all the money you'll save in fuel not going to HD for OSB....
I just did billing and reviewed by bills.I don't use osb, but the 1/2" Advantech was $18.90 and the T&G Advantech flooring was 24.50
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
please think outside the box, try to go to your local sawmill and check their prices on pine boards. I can buy 1 inch thick boards for Less than $9.00 for 32 sq.ft. (the size of a 4x8 sheet of plywood).. It's much easier to nail up a 6 inch wide board that is 8 feet long than to wrestle with a 4x8 sheet of plywood (especially on windy days!) plus it provides a better nailing surface and less likely to delaminate should it rain heavy after you get them up but before you can weather everything in..
Well....except for the fact that I monkeyed around with the return on a garage door (reduced it to 1 foot) and so had to have an engineered shear wall...specifying full sheets of OSB.....
> .... try to go to your local sawmill ....
Ah, if only I had a local sawmill. Does anyone know of a sawmill within 500 miles of LA? I know they used to float logs down here in the ocean, but that stopped before WWII....
-- J.S.
I'll bet I can find some.. try to contact woodmizer and see how many of their sawmills they've sold in the LA area.. then swing around and start talking to the owners.. I know there used to be a sawmill up near Alpine but that was before the big fire I don't know if it''s there anymore. You might need to travel up to Fresno or around Santa Barbara. Calfornia used to have a zillion sawmills. They still grow trees there..
(I wonder what avacado wood is like? Orange tree? I do know Palm tree ain't worth anything.. )
Hey, they still harvest and mill trees here. Any tree in Yosemite that has to be cut for whatever reason (like it has or looks like it soon will fall over the road) is milled for lumber if possible (the park has a "highest possible use" policy). There are commercial operations too.I know Bob Evans in Mariposa mills lumber, specializing in 1x12 planks for lap siding, esp cedar and sugar pine. He has the contract for the park and most people near here call him if they have a big tree to take down - if you have a 40" sugar pine he'll pay you for the privilege instead of charging $2000 or whatever the arborists want. you have the added satisfaction of knowing that this is "green" lumber in the sense that it is mostly timber that would go to waste or become firewood if Bob or someone like him didn't mill it.I'm sure there are others around. I know there's a larger outfit up in Stockton, but I can't remember the name. Pick up the yellow pages and ask the local tree cutters who they sell their big lumber to. Most sell it to someone to make a little extra cash (although I don't know how much big timber there is in LA, so you might need to look a little farther afield).We have some 3-4 trees we need to cut - 30" cedar and red fir (trying to save the sugar pines) and we're hoping to get Bob to turn our trees into our lumber. He says it rarely works out, but we have reasonable expectations (most people expect to get half the lumber in exchange he says, which seems pretty ridiculous).
Edited 1/12/2005 9:55 pm ET by tlambert
My cost here for #4 pine planed one side to 7/8" is more like $26/32ft, delivered same way that ply or other is. Could get it at the mill for about 60% of that, but that is still a good deal more than your pricing.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
Piffin,
I'm courious why you'd want to plane one side? Most of the really old houses that used pine boards as siding were rough sawn.. Is there something in the Calfornia code that requires it to be planed?
Oh and yes My prices are green and rough at the mill. so I deliver my self and save that cost.. as for the green part most wood is either KD 19 or SD 19 and when I put the boards up a few weeks after I buy them that's about their moisture content.. a little less for boards from the top of the pile a little more from boards in the middle of the pile
But you have a good point there, Things do seem much more expensive in Southern calfornia than here. for example I paid $1.69 a gallon for gas yeaterday and my buddy in Temcula says that he's paying well over $2.00
I am in Maine, but yes, I was shocked at how much higher lumber is here than it was in Colorado, since we are alumber oproducing state. Turns out tto be two things behind that. One - Maine is not a business friendly state, adding a lot of cost to the labour, inventory, and machinery in the form of regs and taxes.
Two - Maines lumber grows on privately owned forests, while the Colorado harvets are on federally owned land that must be harvested on bids, and must be harvested to avoid forest fires and plagues of insects or diseases such as the pine bark Beetle. Maine's timber is managed to market cycles for harvesting, and competes in the market for dollars to paper pulp mills.planed opne side is how we are able to buy it typically at the lumbneryuard. The bigger mills run it off that way for consistancy. I could run over to some of the smaller private mills to get full 4/4 rough and green for about .44 to.48/ bd ft, but then I have all that labour and road time to get an inferior product. Not worth my time.on the other hand, I got a guy here ion the island with a woodmizer to make lumber from what i fgell on site when I built my house. Back then, prices were more like .32/bd ft.He cost me about $750 to make up over three thousand bd ft with me helping tail the saw. That gave me stuff for .24/bd ft plus my labor.to get boarding boards for $9/32 ft to compare to plywood, you have to be able to buy it for twenty eight cents. I heard a guy tell me the other day that he would go broke slicing timber for anything less than .25 for the labor alone.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!