Replies

1. 
   ncbuilder | Dec 13, 2005 03:25pm | #1

   Sheet goods (pywood and OSB) already spiked and came back down from the initial disaster. I expect it to climb again, but I'm a builder not a physic. All other PVC related products have been climbing all year. They saw major jumps this summer from the crude oil jumps. I expect slightly increased prices, but I think they're probably even for a little while. My concrete prices are jumping again in January. Three years ago I was paying $57 yard, now I'll be paying $110 per yard. And drywall is hard to find at all. I've had one house sit 3 weeks waiting on drywall. It's supposed to get worse in late winter. I've found over the years, that no matter what the market is doing currently, something will always be going up. You'll ususally spend more the longer you wait regardless.

   Best wishes, you've picked a beautiful area of the country.

1. 
   profengr | Dec 19, 2005 03:57am | #2

   Thanks for the info.  Concrete, steel and petroleum based products are given to increase.  I am hopiing to not get hurt too much on the lumber and stone.  $/SF esimates have ranged from $125 to $200/SF.  The closer to $220/SF the colder my feet get.

1. 
   stinger | Dec 19, 2005 05:44am | #4

   If you are going to begin building as soon as you say, you must have plans and specifications.  Or do you?

   Where did you get "estimates" of $125 to $250 per square foot?  Square foot pricing is generally meaningless.

   What you ought to be doing is finalizing your plans, specs, and all your product selections, then deciding which builder you want to have do your project.  A responsible GC should be able to tell you how much to expect in material cost escalation at various rise scenarios.

   Here is how the items of significance might look.

   76 cy of concrete

   3500 lbs of steel

   21 mbf of framing lumber

   170 sheets sidewall sheathing

   195 sheets roof sheathing

   11,000 sf of 1/2" gypboard

   etc.

   Your builder should be able to identify and quantify all items he considers as candidates for volatility in price, and show you the quantities and unit costs for each he has used for his "estimate."  I guess you are going to have this built on an "estimate," with your checkbook wide open, instead of a fixed lump sum firm price.

   With each line item having a quantity and base cost, you and your builder can do some quick calcs to see how much extra you'll incur in cost (and his margin) if prices move 5-10-15-20-25 percent up and more.

   I think that when you go through this exercise, and it involves work on your part and that of your builder, you will see that even potential wild swings won't affect your total cost as much as you now think.

1. 
   profengr | Dec 24, 2005 06:43am | #5

   Good advice.   I have just selected my builder and started the discussions.  My $/Sf costing is an exercise to determine ballpark pricing for a go-no-go decision relative to expected price increases in materials.  You are dead on with having an experienced, and trusted, GC assist in estimating.  When plans are finished, final numbers will be received for a hard BID.  Change orders will be dealt with as they arise and negotiated.  Relationship with GC is good with both agreeing to written contracts and approvals prior to starting change oreder work.

2. 
   jarhead | Dec 19, 2005 05:02am | #3

                I've been wondering the same thing. I live in Mobile Alabama. I spoke to a friend of mine, a builder, he said that according to the home building association in our area, that the "true" impact or increases in the market wouldn't be felt until two to three years. Sure you have an initial increase, so we all wait until all goes back to normal before building. But, what if it does go higher down the road? We would have been better off building now dispite the "small increase" in material costs. If you were to drive to the New Orleans area you will see something that will take years to rebuild, so we have yet to feel their affect on the market.

                                  Semper Fi

3. 
   JeffBuck | Dec 27, 2005 10:18am | #6

   as always ...

   never gonna be cheaper than it is today.

    

   and ... either find 20% "extra" money ...

   or scale back 20% and have it on hand.

    

   Jeff

       Buck Construction

    Artistry In Carpentry

        Pittsburgh Pa