After reading a couple of hundred posts I am detecting a troubling sense of Fear among the group. I’ve been a little busy for 2 or 3 months but I have always seen Break-Time as a great place to visit. I enjoy all your posts and have more collective respect for you guys than any other I call myself a part of. The collective panic is upsetting. <!—-> <!—-><!—->
GM Laying off, Ford staring bankruptcy in the face, 150,000 Americans in a foreign country for Arab target practice, China and India earning ground on us economically—(an economic war maybe). Real Earnings dropping—the average carpenter in the US making $15/hour. Illegal workers keeping wages low and eating up social benefits. Health Care Costs Soaring—Evil and Tyrannical companies making profit on the backs of hard working Americans…<!—-> <!—->
What’s wrong with US??<!—-><!—->
Is it the Forest for the Trees analogy? Are we so clouded with the media view and all our collective troubles that we are depressing ourselves? Dwelling on the bad—no time to look at the good? Not interested in the good anymore? Need our fix of melancholy? <!—-><!—->
GM and Ford losing ground to import companies is old news. Those seeds were sewn many years ago. So is Iraq insofar as now we know that the effort has been mismanaged to the point that there is no strategy to win the conflict in place—and we all know what a protracted conflict will ad up to—hurt for everyone involved. <!—-><!—->
This entire list contains things that we all feel strongly about—need to vent about but are ill equipped to do anything to alleviate aside from getting your message to people who have the power and prowess to cause changes. It’s a management issue so don’t let all this superfluous fluff cloud your judgment anymore. <!—-> <!—->
Here’s the issue as I see it. Negativity breeds _________. Lets get Positive.
Things may be a little tough for a while—changes are going to happen and some of them may hurt a little. Are you going to get beaten by them… or will you profit or even benefit from them? That is entirely up to you. <!—-><!—->
What things can we change to make our business and lives of us and our families better?<!—-><!—->
How can we head off impending economic doom?<!—-> <!—->
What businesses will be booming while others are floundering? <!—-><!—->
How do we do our small part to change this world for the better?<!—-> <!—->
How can we work collectively to give the corporations a knock on the head—to get the point across that we need jobs here—not in India. (Hint: It will take legislation—of the carrot and stick type)<!—-><!—->
In times of economic shock and turmoil, small positive steps are necessary. What are they?<!—-><!—->
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
Replies
You might try posting some of your own answers on these questions, rather than trying to incite discussion.
I consider his post thought provoking and much needed.It's Never Too Late To Become What You Might Have Been
[email protected]
Who would care what a Canadian would think solutions should be for American Troubles? We have too many of our own--I'd feel like a hypocrite.
I'm curious to see the creativity from everyone else.
I'm here to learn David.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
"Who would care what a Canadian would think solutions should be for American Troubles? We have too many of our own"
True, you have troubles of your own, but perhaps some of the troubles we're experience down here have been solved (is that the correct term?) up North.
Any suggestions from our Northern neighbors are always welcome.
Bob
>>True, you have troubles of your own, but perhaps some of the troubles we're experience down here have been solved (is that the correct term?) up North.Well, there will be no government in Canada after this evenings non-confidence vote.
Was that tongue in Cheek Bob? Our corruption is renowned worldwide... we evade problems and 3 years from now we will cease to be a connected country--Quebec and likely Alberta will be gone. We are incapable of solving anything by the looks of things--but that rant doesn't belong in this post.
Trying to keep things positive here!
LGardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
"Was that tongue in Cheek Bob? Our corruption is renowned worldwide"
Honestly, it wasn't meant to be. I don't keep up on policies and politics in Canada (don't keep up with what's going on here in the States as much as I probably should, actually- I find it all kind of annoying), so I can't say how you guys are doing.
Bob
Well, I never read a post like that without wondering if the author has plenty of ideas of his own. There's nothing about being Canadian that precludes you from sharing. Hey, I can see Canada from here, it can't be that far away!
Maybe later on I'll unload my thoughts. I gotta go set some tile right now.
Personally, I think you`re "seeing" this amongst Breaktimers because you`re looking for it, or because you`re projecting your own feelings upon others.
I`ve been hearing a bunch of doom and gloom regarding the US....its economy....its "loss of jobs" for quite some time now.
I am not however witnessing any such that you are suggesting. Fear? Desperation? Melancholy?
Concerns, sure. We`ve always got concerns. Most often, we adress them and keep chuggin` along.
Please don`t take my response as a dismissal of the points you`ve raised. The issues themselves are quite legitimate.
I`m only responding to what you`re claiming to perceive among the folks here at BT.
I don`t see it.
J. D. Reynolds
Home Improvements
Never seen it in your posts JD--After a 3 month hiatus you notice a change in mood--But maybe I am just seeing things.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
Good post, JD.Life and suffering are inseparable.
I smell a liberal pacifists who hates Bush. I smell a liberal who hates the military. And they call me stinky. yeah right.
Something wrong with yer stink detector stinky... you smelled it exactly backwards.
If it werent for you folks taking it to them--we'd all be dealing directly with the terrorists here... But that's entirely another topic.
You are all right.. I have plenty of ideas...
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
"If it werent for you folks taking it to them--we'd all be dealing directly with the terrorists here..."Looks like you found the source of the fear you think you're detecting on this board. It's all in your own head.
Allen in Boulder Creek
Didn't come here to talk politics Allen... but thanks anyway.
LGardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
Nor did I, Lawrence. I thought this thread was about fear. ;)
Allen in Boulder Creek
I guess the truth is we all fear the unknown... those of us that are in business more than more so.
I guess though... from my chair here in Canada--Fear has much to do with politics.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
U want positive?
the stock market is up ... and growing.
the economy is actually doing quite well.
to hear some though ... you'd think we're in a depression.
but they're rushing things ... that won't start till after 2010.
Jeff
Buck Construction
Artistry In Carpentry
Pittsburgh Pa
Funny, I cant believe the number of people that I talk to that are so freaked out when the interest rate goes up, they think it will all come to a sudden stop tomorrow, or that houses aren't selling as fast right now and the markets going to collapse.
My first mortage in 1986 was at 14% and the building economy in CT was in a major slump, and I still put food on the table, kept my guys working and paid the bills on time.
And I think the houses are, and have been way overpriced, driven by low interest rates and demand, and if anything, a pricing correction is on the way not a dead stop.
People are freaked out about $2.90 a gallon for gas, when milk costs $3.99, never mind what "bottled water " cost per gallon!!!
I blame most of it on the media, my Dad always said " if you don't have anything good to say, shut your trap" to bad the media cant learn that, and do some postive news/stories for once instead of all the doom & gloom.
See, that's part of the trouble... happy stories don't sell.
On the other hand though, since you remember the tough times in CT, can you imagine what it was like in Detroit? I remember framers working for $1.65/sf, buying their own fasteners in the early 90's.
Basic standard work is simply a commodity--set by the market. That makes Framers and Trim guys unable to set pricing for the most part. Less demand--more supply and they are working for peanuts. High interest rates (I remember 18% around here), and people don't do as much. ( I hid out on an estate for 3 years last time it happened)
You being in CT is a huge advantage whether you realize it or not. Being as far from the mexican border as possible is also an advantage.
Numerous factors affect the general carpenter in adverse ways... and some for the good.
You are right about it not happening all at once. I started this post because there seems to be a number of warning signs in place.
I'm just curious whether anyone else has noticed, and what steps everyone is taking to protect their futures.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
I took up my existing business model in '91 when others were looking for a hole to crawl into. Someone told me I was either a hero or crazy. Confidence, knowledge, and experience dispell fear.
Welcome to the
Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime.
where ...
Excellence is its own reward!
Confidence, knowledge, and experience dispell fear.
Don't forget the security blanket, hand sewn by grandma.
Stacy's mom has got it going on.
Glad you are here Piff... Should tell them what you did and why.
I'd assume you identified the niche... and specialized. Probably wasn't easy making the transition...
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
hey bud im glad your postting again....
I dont see any real dispair, what I see in the US is a politcal group (dems) trying to paint a gloom and doom picture where it doesnt really exist.
I also think with the recent disasters that put a hurt on us but we've always rebounded from those sort of things.
What I see is a political group (reps) trying to paint a picture that everyting is rosy while we are experiencing the most power-hungry, corrupt administration this country has ever endured.
Allen in Boulder Creek
What I see is a political group (reps) trying to paint a picture that everyting is rosy while we are experiencing the most power-hungry, corrupt administration this country has ever endured.
Dude I would discuss this with you but I already got kicked out of the Tav b/c socialist lib whiners cant take the heat. Go to the Tav and discuss it. I cant .
Thanks for respecting the space.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
No problem Sancho, but I've read some of your posts, and I think you might want to rethink the reason you got kicked out of the Tavern. Taking responsibilty for one's own actions goes a long way in this world. You might want to give it a try sometime. If you can't discuss it, then maybe you shouldn't make comments like you did. Or do you like that you can make them, but no one can respond to them because your own behavior got you kicked out of the place you could discuss them?
Allen in Boulder Creek
You can respond all you want but I wont reply
SANCHO! How's your summer?
Hey... you know what I'm up to... I get busy that's all!
Thanks for the kind words pal!
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
Ive been pretty busy to. Man im getting to old for this...:>)
Ya need to come around here more.
Pifin, that is SO right on the money.It's amazing what happens if you go forward when everyone else is backing up, isn't it? <G><<Confidence, knowledge, and experience dispell fear.>>A big set of stones helps too, apparently. <BG>
The first Home Depot moved into our area some eight years back.....At the time, there were maybe four large lumber yards within the immediate area. Two of the four folded since the arrival. The one right here in town went into build up mode as HD broke ground.
Everyone called him crazy. He`s doing better than ever now. While he might not see as many DIYs as he once did, contractors have almost no where else to go. They`d (we`d) rather spend the extra $s and get in and out with the quality products than spend half a day standing in line to save a few bucks at HD.
J. D. Reynolds
Home Improvements
I'm glad to hear that, and thank you for telling me that story.We had the same thing happen -- local Mom and Pop yard, been there since the 1940s, third generation owner/manager.Home D moved to town, everybody thought it would put them under.Best thing that ever happened to them. The contractors who can't afford to jerk around at HD pay a slight premium for an excellent selection, better quality, and truly superior service.I really believe that to a great extent we all see what we want to see, and to some extent, we create the circumstances that we live in.When the economy starts looking shaky, I work harder. When I see my competition hurting, I expand or improve somehow.So far so good.
My tile/stone guy tells me that in his industry the tile stores closest to a HD are the ones that increase their business when HD opens up. Frustratedf DIYs come across the stret to get the mess fixed
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
I don't find that surprising, but it is encouraging. It seems to me that we are too quick to fear the big boxes, and other big business. A smaller but smarter business can often use the whole situation to their advantage.As you well know, not everyone is shopping price.I think that there is a difference in kind between small business and big business. The mechanics of efficiency versus effectiveness, economies of scale, quality of service, quality of finished product, attention to detail, and the quality of the interpersonal relationship and its result on the community are all factors that come into play. No doubt there are more, those are the ones that come to mind.Personally, I find Home Depot to be an abomination. I go out of my way to not buy there. Oddly enough though, it has also been an amazing boost to the health of the local economy everywhere I go.I'm not categorically knocking or suporting big business, it has its place. I'd rather buy a tractor made by Caterpillar that something a couple of good old boys built in their back yard, but I'll always go to a local plumber before I let the Roto-Rooter guy anywhere near the job.
There building those places like crazy. just driving home down beach blvd in ajust about 3-5 miles I pass a blows and a hd and a family lumber yard. I honestly avoid those places. Only forl little things like a bag of smooth set for example.
it reminds me of a clown house...both customers and employees.
I just cant understand how people will suddenly stop rright in the middle of a isleway and talk. ,blocking the ilse and get upset whenn someone bumps into them..unbelievable...
Bump em harder......give em reason to be upset.
; )
J. D. Reynolds
Home Improvements
The HD where I used to live... you finally find a cart, load it up, then leave it for a second to walk down and find something halfway down the aisle. They take your cart, throw your stuff on the floor, and roll away with it. The one here is actually tolerable.
I'd search em down and steal something off their cart, something from the other side of the store if possible.
They used to do that to me..Now I get a cart from the parking lot..and roll it around the isles. If they dont move ..well they learn to be a speed bump... I kinda veer to miss them and when they see a cart with me pushing it and a glazed over look on my face they usually will move.
Aughhhh I got to go to blowes soon to get some smooth set and some dry wall bits for my rotozip (you guys know all about that one) for a drywall repair I got to do..
well maybe it wont be so crowded I go there before lunch
As requested... here's a few suggestions.
Learn about marketing and find some low cost methods for casting a wider net. More people knowing about your services and expertise will make keeping busy later easier.
Read... study history... learn new skills... hone others...develop a specialty which you will do better than anyone else. Create a strategy to cope with possible tough times ahead.
Charity work... putting on events for charity can be great passive marketing. As you elevate your level of prestige... you are top of mind for your prospects. Networking efforts will also flourish.
Just ideas.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
My stink may have distracted me from evaluating your original post correctly. I may have been wrong. I like your ideas. stinky
"Read... study history... learn new skills... hone others...develop a specialty which you will do better than anyone else. work... putting on events for charity can be great passive marketing. As you elevate your level of prestige... you are top of mind for your prospects. Networking efforts will also flourish."
That is some really good stuff!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WWPD
You are kind SailGardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
I've been too busy to be afraid...if I look melancholy, it's just that I'm too tired to look cheerful.Housing starts are half the level of one year ago here (SE MN), but I'm twice as busy. I found out today that I did not get a kitchen remodel I bid on and was releaved.It has been an interesting year. I've been a solo trim carp for about 4 years, but was too busy this June to keep up...I found a good guy & hired him. I had been worried about keeping up with the work, then I panicked about finding enough work for two guys. Now we have too much work again.Our business model includes several elements that I think will make the most out of any economy and apply to any business:Highly Skilled EmployeesQuality Work, On-TimeBest Methods and MaterialsContinual ImprovementWe focus on kitchens (cabinets, countertops, & trim).
You are so right about that business model. That summary was excellant. I would agree that anyone that does good work will always have work, not necessarily in kitchens and bathrooms either. I would add one thing to your list - Show up when you say you will. It really helps, especially in today's world.
Don K.
EJG Homes Renovations - New Construction - Rentals
Absolutely -- I've goten jobs just because I was the only one who showed up on time.
I finally wrote a business plan this year and that little summary was part of it. I didn't think I needed a biz plan, but I think it has helped me focus on those key ideas that help a business thrive and grow.I had read plenty of biz guru books...writing your own biz plan is just writing your own self-help book that is the best of all those other books (as it applies to your own business).You are right about showing up on time. If you are late you are ripping someone off. You are stealing time from your customer and you can't replace time."If I am late to a job, then I leave early to make up for it."
You boys are right... carpenters never starve--and good carpenters will always thrive.
I'd just love to see more of us get rich.
Good Luck gents!
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
I know there are limits to how much I can make--even if I am a skilled carpenter--my client base is limited and so is my time. I am trying to land the high-end work in my market, but to really make big money requires the best clients and more of them. This means expanding the workforce with more highly-skilled carpenters (who are both scarce and expensive).I am now working on improving cabinet designs and on cabinet add-on products. If I remain a carpenter my potential market in my lifetime is a few thousand customers.If I can sell ideas or a product, my potential customer base is in the millions.
Edited 12/4/2005 11:01 am ET by basswood
Exactly Bass, now you are thinking.
Being a cabinetmaker there may be something you can produce to sell to other cabinetmakers as well-
LGardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
If I can sell ideas or a product, my potential customer base is in the millions.
That's the key.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
I agree 100% -- well said.
Lawrence,
I wanted to see what few others had to say first before I chimed in. It's easy to understand why people are feeling fear and desperation these days.
The Auto industry, long seen as an indicator of economic healthy has taken a huge hit. GM is on the ropes and Ford is holding on but it starting to sway a little. Those two giants alone have the ability to cripple local and state economies with layoffs. DO I believe that they will go under? No, but it may be a long road until they are healthy again.
The Housing industry, the new economic indicator, ( my father has argued for thirty five years that housing was a better indicator of economic strength than cars, looks like he was right.) is all over the place. In my area some builders have huge inventory and some have waitnig lists and there is no rhyme or reason as to why.
I live in an area that CNN money rated as the best real-estate bet for the next 20 years. We have new medical device companies and medical equipment distributors moving in. We are just under two hours from NYC. There has been talk of a high speed rail line in the near future and we have regular bus service to the NJ-NYC area. And yet, even here I see "Price Reduced" on yard signs and in the real-estate listings in the last three weeks. I just had my house appraised for a home equity loan. Of the appraisers we contacted, all required cash or certified funds because they are experiencing a rash of Stop Payment checks by people unhappy with the appraisal they got.
On the New Construction front, our area has been flooded with big builders who wouldn't even have known we existed three years ago. And what comes with them? Van Loads of South and Central American immigrants. Why, because they work cheaper than the locals. So now guess what? Guys already struggeling to pay realistic wages and maybe provide some benefits are having their prices undercut. SO now they have to decide, what do they do. They can take less for themselves, they can pay their employees less, or they can just hire some illegals like everyone else.
I have nothing against the immigrants who come to this country. My family came here once upon a time too. But I do think we need to do something to level the playing field. Two years ago you could walk into the grocery store by me and not hear one word of Spanish. Today, they are trying to hire people who speak Spanish because thats their core customer now. I don't know where they are living because I sure don't see them in the neighborhoods or parks or schools but the big builders came and so did they.
The new Fed just announced that he will try to come up with a plan to avoid any further rate hikes. Why is that? Well, at our current real-estate prices in most areas, 7.5% and above puts a ton of people out of the house buying game. Hell, it's starting to cool off in some areas at 6%.
You can find these areas by looking at the number of "Exotic" loans like Interest Only's or big adjustables. When the 30yr fixed isn't the big seller in your area you might be in for a correction.
Someone mentioned buying a house at 14%. I remember geting my first work truck from the family business and finding the paperwork in the glove box. My father had paid $5275.00 for it and was paying $213.00 a month for 60 months. The rate was in the high teens. By comparison my Ford Ranger would cost $375 a month at those rates and my Explorer would be $680. I pay $225 and $450 respectivly now. In a society of increased borrowing even mild rate increases could cause a cool down.
Ironically, higher rates increase the strength of our dollar in relation to other currencies. The down side? Well, that increased strength leads to an increased trade imbalance.
People like to point to the Dow and talk about how it's over 10,000 so the economy must be doing well. That always makes me chuckle. Since the eighties and more so since online trading caught on, the Dow Jones is less and less an indicator of TRUE economic strength.
We have a new generation of investors who onLy uderstand the short term profit. When you talk to people with real money you find they do invest in hot up and coming companies or ones that they think have some short term growth potential. But they have a huge percentage of investments in companies they expect to be long term performers. they don't look for 20% gains in a month. they look for 10-12% gains over 10 years. SLow steady growth and dividend payment.
Unfortunatly we have a ton of investors who purchase a stock and then watch it like it's a dog that's going to do a trick. That mentality combined with the fact that most CEO's are compensated with stock or stock options leads to an environment where the only objective is to keep the stock price on the rise. Companies must constantly be trying to increase the stock price. This leads to many companies eating themselves alive. They have to constantyl find a way to keep the stock price on the rise which means increasing profits or decreasing costs or both. And that leads us to.................. Outsourcing or moving off shore.
As companies outsource or move off shore, we still get to keep the displaced workers. One problem. Not everyone can run a small business. Not everyone can be in the Army, not everyone can work in an office. We desperately need meaningful employment in the manufacturing sector.
Add to all that the fact that a ton of americans are two paychecks away from the bank showing up and taking back the suburban. I know one framer here who says he's covered as he has a years worth of forklift payments banked. For every guy like him there are nine who are one bad job or one slow month away from giving the bank back that shiney new F-350. A friend of mine who works for a bank once told me, only half jokingly, to tell my freinds to get magnetic truck signs instead of getting their trucks painted. It was around 2000 when we had a little hiccup and he had spent over $1200 in the last month getting painted on business names taken off repossesed trucks. Almost all small contractors.
What can we do to change all of this? A few things.
I don't advocte buying American just for the sake of buying American. On the otherhand we need to support our own companies as much as we can. I drove a ton of SUV's before buying my Explorer. My ford is just as well built as any of the Acura, Lexus or Infinity SUV's I looked at. They might have more gizzmo's but the quality is no better. A friend of mine has an Acura MDX and to date I have more miles and less problems than he does. Made in America doesn't mean junk so maybe we need to try to support our own companies when it makes sense.
Long term planning. We have to break the mindset that a stock should make you rich in two weeks. You can't buy something and then watch it like it's a golden retriever and you expect it to roll over and shake hands with you.
We need to save more and borrow a little less. We need to stop looking at our houses as bank accounts. Ever figure how much you'll pay if you roll that new bass boat and the new truck to pull it with into your 12 year Home Equity loan?
We need to not only find a way to keep jobs in this country but when we do we need to find a way of providing workers worth training. Ever try to hire help? I used to hire three or four guys at a time to keep one. Sometimes a week later you would still be trying to explain the concept of 1/4 inches to highschool graduates.
Last, and Most importantly, we need to stomp out the culture of fear. Opie and Anthony do a radio bit where they have listeners tape the "Big Scare" news report of the day in there area and send it in so they can poke fun at them. It's insane. We are a country that wants to be affraid. And because of this we have begun a slef fulfilling prophecy of doom.
it aint great right now. But I am confident that America will adapt and get back on track. May take a while but it will be ok in the long run.
Edited 12/3/2005 9:54 am ET by robert
Great post, five stars. I think you are right in so many ways, the main one being that too many Americans are on shaky ground and have essentially created a national house of cards. Collectively we have incredibly poor judgement and it's like our parents taught us nothing. High interest debt on big screen TVs, bass boats and F-350s bought on the HELOC, no savings, no retirement money, iffy mortgages, the works. Add to that the fact that our federal spending is based on the same kind of borrowing. We don't have enough dough left to BUY a clue.
Lawrence, is your government in debt?
I think it really started going down hill when car loans went from a routine 24 months to 36 months.
After that 48 then 60 and 72.
But the change from 24 to 36 was stepping on the slippery slope.
Cars depreciate. Unlike homes, which, normally, appreciate.
There's one thing guaranteed to keep a working man poor. A NEW car.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
I wonder what the relative cost of the average new car is these days, compared to average income. There are so many fancy, high-feature cars out there for premium money. I see a lot of tradesmen driving trucks that must cost $35,000 and up, with 4wd, big wheels, big engines, plush interiors with lots of options, etc. That stuff'll keep you in hock, that's fer sure.
My goal in life is to drive around in a big fancy 4wd truck and talk on a cell phone all day.
<G>
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
Re: "I think it really started going down hill when car loans went from a routine 24 months to 36 months."I noticed the same thing. It was also about that time when the S&L and stock crisis became apparent. Were still paying for those. Proof that this was a critical moment in the national business model is that the people who brought you these debacles are, despite being able to legally serve on boards or play in the financial markets, still highly sought out business consultants.This is also the time when the credit card companies all got together, shared information and rigged the system to get, and keep, America in debt.Given that the loan durations are now approaching the expected life of many of these vehicles your entirely correct that "There's one thing guaranteed to keep a working man poor. A NEW car".The new financial zeitgeist is to have everyone building a financial house of cards where everything is leveraged and ownership is contingent on making the payment. True, outright, ownership is seen as an inefficient fixing of capital. Of course a new vehicle can set you back for ... well forever if you interest rate is high enough and it wears out before it is paid off. Of course many folks fall for the old 'we will pay off your old vehicle and get you a shiny new one' compounding their error. Yes, that's bad. And only getting worse.But if you want to keep a family poor give them a couple of kids. Because the kids will drive a whole wave of spending. From birth with the loving caress of the hospital financial services department to the need for a child seat and, likely, a second vehicle. The black hole of child care and the wife working or the marathon torture of wife home frustrated as she sees her husband doing the 80 hour a week zombie walk. Either way they are going to need a second vehicle. Any luck at all about the time they see a little daylight they will have a second child and the light at the end of the tunnel is revealed to be an oncoming train.Is it any wonder that alcoholism, drug abuse, child neglect, domestic violence, suicides and fathers simply running are so common? Financial problems, and the stress and acting out it causes, are single most common reason for divorce. You can track plant closings, mass firing and increases in credit usage by mapping the occurrences of domestic violence and suicides. But the current fashion is to see 'Family Values' as promoting birth, discouraging birth control and keeping the queers closeted. Of course once the kid is out these same folks are largely mute. Not one word about the single largest impediment to a family, the manipulations of the financial system to promote and perpetuate debt. Financing the new car is just the tip of the iceberg.Happy thoughts for Christmas.
Although you paint a bleak picture you haven't thrown a wet blanket on my Christmas spirit.
Merry Christmas to you and yours!
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
Any wonder where he got his screen name?
J. D. Reynolds
Home Improvements
His comments often seem appropo for the screen name.
Usually has some interesting ideas. Just a little bleak sometimes.
Hope you have a Merry Christmas!
And a Happy New Year!
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
I`d find him funny as hell if I didn`t think he was serious.
Merry Christmas to you as well.
J. D. Reynolds
Home Improvements
And Happy New Year!
A little early. I know. But I intend to be busy for the next couple weeks so if I don't get the chance to say it then I said it now.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
Re: "Although you paint a bleak picture you haven't thrown a wet blanket on my Christmas spirit."Good to hear it. On the up side, in four Billion years none if this will matter. I find it deeply comforting to know that we are incapable of twisting, distorting or mutilating reality so badly that the univese can't make it right again. That we are but insignificant trivialities in the larger picture. That spring follows winter, the underlying reason for the seasonal celebration but one that has been hijacked by the Roman empire as it conquered Celtic Europe. Rome which hijacked, by way of Paul, the figure of Jesus and mythalogically transforming him into a demigod, Christ. The humanity and antiemperial message being lost in the process. All cynical artifice created for man by man for short term profit. What the Buddhists, one of the truly beautiful thought systems, call 'grasping behavior'.But hope spring eternal because we are still here. That soon enough we won't be and then hope itself will be meaningless. As one form merges into another.So, in the end, yes, I'm an optimist. I now return you to you regularly scheduled delirium. The 99th uninspired playing of 'The little drummer boy' this year and loads of superficial familial bliss experience through a veal of repressed resentments and alcohol haze.Remember. Just four Billion more to go, grit your teeth and smile.Be well.
That's right 4Lorn1, we'll all be gases in the sun someday.
The democrats will gleefully delight in the fact that they were right about global warming. I wonder if there will still be Bush haters when we do our final spiral into the sun.
blue
Merry Christmas, 4Lorn.
Hope you make it to the other side of eternity. Whatever you take it to be and however you feel it best to get there.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." Pascal
"The black hole of child care and the wife working or the marathon torture of wife home frustrated as she sees her husband doing the 80 hour a week zombie walk. Either way they are going to need a second vehicle. Any luck at all about the time they see a little daylight they will have a second child and the light at the end of the tunnel is revealed to be an oncoming train"I didn't have the luxury of a good man and had to divorce the child I married and support the three children I had with him in order for us all to survive and it was a nightmare. I never earned enough, was never home enough, never had enough time. I wouldn't wish any of that on my worse enemy.But, I have learned to live with little.Recently some fool said to me, "Why do you own those old trucks? How come you don't get credit and finance for a new one? How come you don't get a loan for your business? WHy don't you get a Home Depot credit card?"What a jerk. We have three trucks that we mostly work on ourselves when we need to. One is an ole 79 that is all painted and lettered up and gets attention, so is a good advertiser. THe other is a deisel workhorse adn the other a utility body that is great for small jobs. I spend less every month on all three of those than some fool spends on one new vehicle!HD is working to put us all out of business by pushing us to get their stupid credit cards and get in debt, all the while competing with us be pushing their insipid "installers" in every aisle and check-out where we shop. It makes me sick. Here in NH, on the coast is a local lumber yard where Home Depot built a store right next to the them (I mean literally). They couldn't be doing better.I have lumber yards calling us for our business, but Home Depot wants me to wait on them...in line...in the aisle...on the phone...at the order desk. Screw em!As for the remodeling economy. I am worried about our countries dependence on home equity financing for funding for the projects we make a living on. Personally also, I just can't believe the money people spend on "improving" their homes when frankly, most people in this world would give their right arm to be able to call a space the size of one room "home" for their family.Oh well.
Re: "Why do you own those old trucks?"An old model paid for is far better than a new one your paying for. A sad consequence of Katrina is that many of those vehicles destroyed weren't paid for and weren't covered for 'an act of God'. Similarly Many homes had little or no applicable insurance and still the mortgage has to be paid. They can't live in it, sell it or get out from under. I worked for a guy when one of his service trucks went off the road. After he found out no one had been hurt he smiled weakly and admitted it was not as bad as it could have been. Simply because 'It had paid for itself many times over'. New truck owners ride the horns of a dilemma. Either they carry insurance with usurious payments and insurance to match or you take the risk, without full coverage, of being stuck with a rusting hulk that wont work and years of payments to go at the same time.A hackneyed line but anyone looking sideways at what I own gets the standard line; 'It's paid for'. A line many who ride or live in new stock can't claim.
Great Points Robert! Where to start. So many good points.
Illegals-- I look upon that as our misfortune dealt to us by lazy politicians. If they had to pay taxes... insurance and licenses--they would need the same money we do. The fact that the politicians are too lazy or don't see it as a priority to deal with that issue is disappointing. It means we--legitimate tax paying businesses are getting screwed over by the people we elected. It is their job to keep our financial playing field level--and they are simply not doing their job. I'm the first one to say that politicians should be well paid--might attract some quality. However, maybe we should make them compete with retired educators for their paychecks. How about a weekly debate... they lose... the teachers get their lunches.
Short term investing... That's why my company is not public. We looked at it a couple of years ago, however the risk of burnup was simply too great. You have to make more and more money every year for the shareholders--or it all implodes. No time for development or learning... it better be firing on all cylinders.
My question is though...However how on this green earth do we explain that 5% unemployment rate even with outsourcing and illegal labor? Sorry for being so scattered but there are so many topics in this post.
That's really why I love Breaktime--you folks are thinkers.
Interest rates--impending doom--yessir. We all have to cut the reliance on debt and home equity for survival. If we didn't have that credit card version of insurance we would very likely discover that we have to earn more. There is a defecit in earnings building in my view.
Interest rates... Now there is an incendiary topic.
Tell me--"Who's leap of logic came up with the idea of increasing interest rates* to hedge inflation". * Brilliant idea. Increase the cost of all the inputs, put people out of work, crank up the pressure on those who can least afford it and squeeze some fledgeling businesses out of their homes because of someone's twisted version of economics.
Increasing the cost of borrowing, doing business, bankruptcy rates will not ease inflation any more than urinating on a campfire will get more heat from it overall. When my costs go up--my prices go up. When I can't get the price I need I move or change to another business.
Besides--they could always do what they did in the last 20 years to keep inflation down. Just change the things they use to calculate inflation---so we don't notice. The old Ostrich routine.
Here's an exercise... add up the cost of a house, truck and groceries in a year for 1971, and agin for 2005. Compare that to your hourly wage then... and your wage now. Remember, in 1971 you needed $300 worth of tools to do business as a carpenter.
Tell me if a general carpenter's disposible income has grown or shrunk.
Robert... Nice work... I have covered a few points you brought up and it's already a book--sorry guys.
L
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it!
Besides--they could always do what they did in the last 20 years to keep inflation down. Just change the things they use to calculate inflation---so we don't notice. The old Ostrich routine.
Just that one topic alone. The house nextdoor to me used to rent for $1100 a month when it sold for $97K. Now that it would sell for $200K it rents for $1250 a month. And yet, RENTAL not PURCHASE prices are used in tons of formulas for cost of living and inflation.