Was just thinking about little home building has changed over the years in comparison to a lot of other industries. Sure we now have nail guns and plywood, but the basic frame remains recognizable. As a mechanical engineer I have seen manufacturing evolving at the speed of light with no sacred cows, traditional designs tend to die.
So I was wondering how home building is going to evolve over the next few decades? The first change I can imagine is the increased use of SIP’s in homebuilding, just increase their size to 40-60′ X 8-12′. OSB can be made in sheets of any size so why not make it wide enough and cut it to length as it is manufactured. Next make some sheet rock to match for the interior walls. The panels could be assembled and all of the openings including outlets and lights could be cut out with CNC equipment. The first manual labor that would be needed would be the placing of the panels and insulation of the windows and doors. By eliminating the seams on the sheet rock on the walls only the corners would need to be taped.
The floors could also be done with I joists where the decking serves as the upper web of the joist. Again in 8′ widths and any length desired. Just back a truck up and swing them into place with a crane.
Interior walls could be done with SIP’s and the core is corrugated to save on material and assist on wiring and plumbing.
The siding and shingles would remain the same right off hand I can’t think of a way to eliminate a major percentage of the labor that would retain or improve the final results.
A lot of buyers would never go for a house that was built this way but I think there would be a strong market. Shells could go up in a day and the home secured the next. Imagine having the trim carpenters scheduled the first week!.
Replies
Abe a lot of that stuff is already being done.
The part about trimming the second day is overstating it a bit.
blue
Warning! Be cautious when taking any framing advice from me. Although I have a lifetime of framing experience, all of it is considered bottom of the barrel by Gabe. I am not to be counted amongst the worst of the worst. If you want real framing information...don't listen to me..just ask Gabe!
I was still a kid living at home when a branch bank was built on the corner across from my house. This must have been about 1972.
When the excavation was complete, the concrete crew came in and poured footers and a slab. In the process of laying the slab, they included some sort of steel track around the perimeter.
A few days later, the room-size safe was placed by a huge crane.
Then, in one day, all of the finished wall panels were placed in the metal tracks. In this case, "finished" meant drywall and paint on the interior, and thin-veneer brick on the exterior, with windows already installed. The trusses and roof sheathing were placed the same day. I did not have a chance to see, or to ask how the wiring, plumbing, and HVAC were done, but it must have been pre-installed in the panels.
That bank had its grand opening celebration about a week after the wall panels were placed.
More than thirty years ago.
So, what will the future bring? Well, the Japanese are building modular rooms, which can be stacked together like leggo's. A prospective buyer visits a group of model homes, and selects the rooms and features desired. The factory builds the rooms, and ships them to the homesite. A crane and small crew do all of the on site work in a few days.
Also, I think that we can look for innovative use of currently unused spaces in homes. Why not have storage drawers between the floor joists, with a trap door to access them? How about neat ways to access the soffit space in the kitchen? Dumb-waiter service all the way from the basement to the attic?
And one other thing we'll be seeing lots of is making homes friendlier for old folks. Wider doors, lots of grab bars, easy-access shutoffs for the mechanicals, and true Zero-maintenance.
Unless you're the lead dog, the view just never changes.
Your point about homes becoming more "elderly friendly" is probably a good one. As the population ages I think this will be natural occurence. Other than that, I don't look for any real changes anytime soon. There have been people around for 20 years saying that one day most homes would be built with ICFs, SIPs, steel framing, computerized controlls, icynene insulation, or whatever they were all worked up about at the moment. Those products will probably always be niche markets only. There will still be a SLOW trend towards having more work done off-site. Like "Superior walls" basements, roof trusses, panelized walls, etc. I think price will still be the main thing people look for in homes. So anything that comes along that makes them 0.01% cheaper will be adopted on a wide basis - Like I-joists. Wal-mart will start selling construction materials and try to drive out some of the other big boxes. And they'll have the same wonderful customer service and knowledgeable staff as HD or any of the others.Local lumberyards will get more and more scarce as they're driven out by the big boxes and wally world. People who want high quality homes will always be around, but will continue to be a minority.
Old skiers never die - they just go downhill.
I have been in construction since I left high school in 1968 with a diploma for architectural drafting clutched in my young inexperienced hand. In the last 36 years I have seen systems come and go modular and mobile and so on. They do not last, what lasts is hands on craftsmanship and design. Nothing can replace the human evolvement in construction, there is an aura created that stays forever.
I was looking at a job the other day and while I was putting my boots back on in the cloak room I looked up and there was a simple coat rack but the original builder had taken the time to router a design into it, it made a nice touch. Assembly lines and factories will not replace that. What will advance, in my opinion, is "skill". We have already surpassed the craftsmen and how it was done in the "good old days" and will continue to do so. It will not be factory assembly line buildings that will take over the industry it will be more skilled carpenters and builders.
Some consumers might want to live in factory type buildings but most, I think, prefer otherwise.
"It will not be factory assembly line buildings that will take over the industry it will be more skilled carpenters and builders."And if that is true, and add the increasing cost of land, our young children will never be able to afford to buy a house.To a great degree, our industry is still in the Mesozoic era, IMO.
we need to quit using wood on the outside of homes regardless of the "history" behind it.
I don't have the time energy or money.
For those who see wood replacement as business, there are lots of other improvement areas inside a house where work opportunities exist. as a nation we need to fess us on exterior wood - it suxx
My one trip to europe - more concrete more metal etc
Edited 11/19/2004 4:25 pm ET by wain
"To a great degree, our industry is still in the Mesozoic era". I think the reason our industry is in the Mesozoic era is because our thinking is in the Mesozoic era. For example (and I do not want to get into arguments about morals and ethics, although these are important) if the billions of dollars spent in other areas were diverted to new sources of energy and building construction problems would be readily solved. We live in a material environment so solutions have to come through the management of material things including money.I have just joined this site and the one thing that impresses me most is the high level of information and advice (most of the time, the movie star boink is questionable) that is contributed. Another interesting thing is the diversity of the construction practices of different regions. What is common and applicable in one area is foreign and done differently in another area although people assume their practices are the standard.Regards. A problem of resource availability and land is of no immediate concern to me although globally it is. I live in a Canadian territory of 294,982.3 square miles with a population density of one person per ten square miles. When I watch a Sunday afternoon college football game from the States there are more people sitting in that stadium then there are in the entire Yukon.Lumber and land issues are not a problem here, transportation, energy and the availability of skilled trades are. We can live in the Mesozoic age if we want, and continue on as we have been, or we can use our intelligence, which is very capable, and make a new era of construction. That is all I am saying you have to hope the best for the future.
David, thanks for your comments. My 1st concern of our antiquated industry is if fact, as you mentioned - the management aspect.1. Very little accountability with suppliers and factories
2. Garbage coming out - all too often
3. Just in Time deliveries are difficult
4. Punch out lists - In 2004, they could not exist.
5. No sense of a “team” attitude between GC & subs
6. In fact, the above is generally an adversarial relationship
7. The public has no clue as to what we go thru to produce
8. No intelligent addressing of what we really do - create a never before “prototype: in each project or service call.
9. Very low initial capital (including intellectual capital) to become a “contractor”
10. RE: Industry Associations - very low impact
11. Ignorance & boorishness, as opposed to “professionalism”, permeates our industry like a diseaseTechnology increases for what seems like an almost daily basis, yet the management aspect, including “self” management and “self” discipline, is still antiquated, and that’s due to attitude and ignorance, pure and simple, well, with a little stupidity thrown in.All one has to do is look at the successes in other industries to validate what I’ve stated.
3. Just in Time deliveries are difficult
if enough contractors demand them, they will eventually become the norm.
7. The public has no clue as to what we go thru to produce
Doesn't matter. Do you know how they manufacture the latest, faster computer chip? Or how they program mobile phones? Who cares, as long as you know what the end product is, and you want that end product, and they're willing to sell it to you for a price that you agree to pay.
Technology increases for what seems like an almost daily basis, yet the management aspect, including “self” management and “self” discipline, is still antiquated, and that’s due to attitude and ignorance, pure and simple, well, with a little stupidity thrown in.
All one has to do is look at the successes in other industries to validate what I’ve stated.
Don't deny any of this, but why is it true? Because a contractor can be slack in management and discipline, and still survive.
Those industries where the management skills have been honed have incredible competition.
Despite competition from "no license/no insurance/illegal hiring" hacks, most contractors are so busy, they're booked months in advance. So the bad management penalty isn't high enough yet to force change. When it becomes high enough, contractors will reform or fail, or if they're skilled craftmen, they'll work for someone else who has better management skills.
Marine Engineer
Everything you say is true, but meanwhile, we're still basically the same as we were hundreds of years ago. Maybe always will as long as the "entry" cost stays so low.
I would think the basic shell of a structure will continue to be mass produced and mobile/modular in design i.e. walls and roof.
But as you said Nothing can replace the human evolvement in construction, there is an aura created that stays forever. whether you meant evolvement or involvement matters not as they both fit well.
What one feels and touches will always be skill and craft oriented in desire regardless of the capability of one to obtain them.
Unfortunately true skilled craftsmen are not the norm and there presently doesn't seem to be a mad rush from the upcoming generation to achieve this.
So I would have to disagree that more skilled carpenters and builders will take over the industry but that is such a pleasant thought.
I can see that the truly skilled craftsmen who are dedicated to their trade will be continually increasing in knowledge and technique as technology continues to grow.
Presenting greater degrees of possibility to reproduce and multiply their efforts, both in manufacture of the structure and the finish work the peoples live with.
be one
I may be wrong, but I think the answer to the question must relate to our ever declining resources. In the future we will have to live more efficiently in less space, consuming less materials and energy. Therefore, advanced insulation techniques, and materials with greater longevity will become prevalent. Two examples may be: carefully installed celulose along with cement siding.
My prediction may be a ways off, but with China growing at the rate it is, more efficient use of resources will come into play in the next 20 years. It is obvious that the planet simply can't support all people with the lifestyles, we in North America are taking for granted.
ALMA
I saw an article a few months back (can't remember where....might have been "Permanent Structures Magazine") about an engineering Prof at USC who is developing a computer controlled robotic concrete wall building machine....operates on an overhead track and fed by a boom pump...
His ultimate goal is to lay out a track and do an entire development of tract homes on a continuous pour....
Of course, concrete has it's own issues....lots of problem this past year in the West with availability of Portland Cement and a lot of experimenting with "fillers" like fly ash along with some environmental issues as the mining and manufacture of cement is quite energy intensive.
I do custom homes....lots of interaction with the customer....I'm not worried.
"It will not be factory assembly line buildings that will take over the industry it will be more skilled carpenters and builders."
I couldn't disagree more.
What I see is a move AWAY from skilled carpenters and more towards a "whatever's cheapest" mentality.
There will probably always be a niche market for quality - Like maybe 5% of the population. But the vast majority of people don't seem to care about it.
Make it idiot-proof and someone will make a better idiot.
Here, Here! I can site more instances of "I don't care" and "I don't want to pay" than I care to. MG
The lack of skilled labor will bring our current home building practices to a screeching halt within the next 20 to 30 years. Skilled labor will be utilized for primarily commercial construction.
YesMa'am hit it right on the head with the Japanese example. Factory constructed homes in modules will become the norm. Already HUD has revised their HUD-code to permit new ways of 'mobilizing' modules. Successful experiments using a Japanese-like system have resulted in conventional looking homes made of stacked sections. Kind of like 'modular' homes but HUD-code.
Sips, ICFs, concrete tilt-up and other 'emerging' systems will grow somewhat for a few years but never catch on fire (figuratively speaking). Conventional stick construction will fade. Just like a log or timber frame (upgraded old technologies) today are considered 'high end' so too will stick framed homes.
Foundations will become a thing of the past also. The technology already exists for frost protected foundation slabs in cold climates - even those will become 'overkill' and new simpler grounding systems will become commonplace as soon as building codes catch up with technology.
Currently many regions are experiencing an affordability gap. Housing costs have esclated so fast that many people can't afford a home. A lot of that is due to the cost of land but our outdated construction techniques also drive up costs.
Someday Fine Homebuilding will become like This Old House TV - Homes for the upper 5% to 10% of the US population. Of course by then I'll be in assisted living.....
Mike Guertin
Edited 11/19/2004 9:03 pm ET by MIKE GUERTIN
I think in a decade or two most homes will be modular units built in factories, shipped by truck, hoisted into position by crane and bolted to a slab and to one another. Total time about six hours.
Plumbers will make a couple of flexible joints for drains and vents up. The pipes will pretty much meet and he just has to add a boot or two to connect them. There will be a couple of flexible pressure hoses to connect. Possibly with quick connect joints. Total time per house about two hours.
Electricians will remove a few access panels and slap together a couple of Molex connectors to connect the sections for electricity, cable, telephone, network. Until another modular mechanism comes into being he will have run the feed from underground into the meter attached to the building at the factory. Time on site about four hours per house.
Roofers will run a few runs of shingles to cover the joints between sections and run a bit of flashing and caulking. Take about four hours per house.
Carpenters will run a little trim. Some caulk and maybe add some ultra-custom features. Regular custom features will be built in at the factory. Total time perhaps four hours per house.
In less than a day the lot goes from bare slab with a couple of plumbing stub ups to finished house in a day.
Most of homebuilding will be in large temperature controlled factories where large assemblies are moved around by gantry crane and positioned for maximum speed and efficiency.
Wages will be low. Perhaps twice the minimum wage if the factory is in the US. There is a good chance these factories will be in China. Hard to beat labor at 30 cents and hour
Skills will be low with people learning one or two minor jobs and the worker being imminently replaceable.
The houses themselves will look very much like custom house we see today. Custom designs will be negotiated by the buyer in showrooms or on the internet. Virtual walk thoughs, complete with finishes and funiture, carpets and lighting will be common.
Once finalized the plans, build up of modules and integrated by computer, will be downloadable to any location on earth. The plans will be complete down to the design of the wallpaper, trim level, and possibly include appliances and furniture. The house built in easily shipped sections and prepped for shipping, possibly sized and sharing some commonality with CONEX boxes, can be shipped anywhere on earth.
Homes are one of the last piece built products on earth where minimally prepared materials are brought together where the product is to be used and assembled on site in a sloppy, uncontrolled and weather dependant environment.
In the future only those who frame and pour the slab and run the plumbing and utilities up to the slab will work in the mud. Even here it may be possible to do little more than level the site and bolt together concrete slabs to form the foundation. The factory built slabs forming such a stong and rigid base after being put together that it essentially makes a floating foundation without the need for pouring concrete on site.
Concrete shells could be bolted up to form basements. These would be dropped into a dug hole and leveled by injection of an earth and cement slurry to make the slab mate with the ground on five sides and to level everything up. The technique of high pressure injection is already being used to repair settling foundations.
The process would be easy to automate using the methods presently used for pour and jack multi-story buildings with the jacks slaved to a central controller. Nozzles and pump points could be similarly automated to allow the system to automatically level the slab or basement cells.
I don't know why all these guys keep mentioning foundations. Future homes orbiting the moon and Mars will not need foundations. They will use tethers instead.
LLOL
I was doing some retrosperctive thinking on this subject this past week and had a different view from you on past changes. I considered how very much this industry has changed in my life and how that projects more change yet in the future, at a probably faster rate of change.
the majority of homes wil continue to suffer from being dumbed down in quality and design while a few percent will still be built using ever increasing high quality methods and designs.
changes I have noted are increased common use of metal, manmade lumber such as OSB and LVL, foams everywhere, fastening improvements like glues, screws, joint hardware, window technology improvements, high tech wraps and underlayments, ergonomic tools,
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Piffin, that thought deserves it's own thread. I often speak to the kids about how their framing systems have evolved from past systems that use different materials.
blueWarning! Be cautious when taking any framing advice from me. Although I have a lifetime of framing experience, all of it is considered bottom of the barrel by Gabe. I am not to be counted amongst the worst of the worst. If you want real framing information...don't listen to me..just ask Gabe!
For good and for bad...Man-made materials have openned up possibilities for more open space and longer spans, wider rooms, etc, but same - such as trussed roofs have contributed to an increase in wasted space while saving labour.
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
From what I've seen in many of my customers homes (mostly somewhat high end), it's not just the use of trusses in the roofs that lead to wasted space, but also the same I-joists, lvls, etc. that allow for wider rooms, vaulted spaces. In most larger modern homes I feel (especially in functional spaces like kitchens) like I have to cross lots of open floor space to get from one thing to another. The spaces/rooms and the feel of same aren't any better, they're just bigger (and less personal). The law of diminishing returns DOES apply to increasing the size of rooms, and there is a tipping point where the quality of a space gets worse with increasing size, not better. It is beginning to seem like one of the first questions asked by home builders and designers of their clients is ..."Would you like to supersize that?" Now I know that's not completely fair, because it is a chicken / egg arguement. Is the square footage of homes increasing so fast because that's what consumers want, or because that's what they're offered and that's what builders want to build?
Every time I walk into a 3000 sq. ft. house with cheap moldings, cheap fixtures, popcorn ceilings, and lots of wasted space, I just shake my head. It has been mentioned many times on this thread that in the future, only higher end homes will still be built with any kind of hand craftsmanship. I guess if the emphasis in the marketplace remains on square footage and not quality of space, this might be the inevitable result. But it doesn't have to be that way. How do we change this? How do we express to people that they might be happier if that 3000 sq. ft. home became a higher quality 2000 sq. ft. home?
I'm not trying to be elitist about this issue. My wife and I have a very modest home and lifestyle. What I'm saying is that I don't believe that modern home construction is driven by lack of budgets, but by screwed up priorities. Of course an inevitable question is ..."where are we going to get the skilled labor to build smaller, well thought out, quality homes?" I think we already have it. I think most framers, drywallers, siders, etc. work to whatever level is expected of them. Maybe I'm being naive, but I think most installers would rather go home at the end of the day knowing they did something worthwhile, and not just slapped up xxx many square feet of whatever.
50 years ago when it was common for a family of 6 or 7 to live in a 1500 sq. ft. house, it was probably appropriate to think about how to adjust our building practices to squeeze more space out of a customer's budget. But it seems as if that mindset has not been reevaluated on an industry wide basis to see if it should still be the driving force that is is in the marketplace. I would just like to see a "smaller can be better" idea begin to take hold in town house tracts and big suburban developments, and not just in the occasional custom house.
Peace out.
But it doesn't have to be that way. How do we change this? How do we express to people that they might be happier if that 3000 sq. ft. home became a higher quality 2000 sq. ft. home?
I agree strongly, that changing that mentality would be good for our society. But how do we reverse competitive consumerism?
To me it seems just as impossible as enacting a constitutional ban on alcohol beverages, and having it stick. After all, folks who live in McMansions are just as intoxicated with their consumerism, as a drunk is with a few bottles of Ripple.
(edited to correct spelling/grammar)
Unless you're the lead dog, the view just never changes.
Edited 11/20/2004 6:40 pm ET by YesMa'am
Re: "I agree strongly, that changing that mentality would be good for our society. But how do we reverse competitive consumerism? "IMHO a lot of the present trend, oversized, poorly constructed and designed homes, is a result of advertising, realtors and contractors who know that building it twice as large is a lot easier, and profitable, than building and designing it twice as well. Part of it is also real estate and land prices. When stocks and bonds sank a lot of folks jumped into real estate. Some of this is also the trend of real estate becoming seen as a profitable part-time job and the late-night 'Buy my book and learn to pay nothing down and flip it for $25000 in 48 hours.' trends. All this helped run up prices further making buying a bigger house on more land look like a sure-thing investment. The concept of houses as investment, as opposed to a place to live or home, makes overlooking the glaring sloppiness in quality and design easy. People invest in companies they only know as a ticker symbol. Often what the company does is secondary. Big houses as an investments have quality and livability as pale secondary issues.When the real estate market cools, as it will, and with the average family size going down the houses as tokens on a Monopoly board games will slow. More people will have to live in these monstrosities fully knowing that it will be long term. The illusion and excuse that allow easy tolerance of shoddy work, the house as an investment, will be gone.With this new understanding the high energy cost, likely to get higher, and maintenance costs and trouble, forced by knowing your going to be there for decades, will no longer be seen as a tiny part of a financial game. Tolerance for these costs will be limited. Even more limited as the people get older and see incomes shrink. Eventually all the sales gimmicks and hype in the world will not obscure the reality of the McMansions being an abomination. Same thing happened with the oil crisis. Prices went up and you couldn't give the gas guzzlers away. Same thing could happen in the home market. They might be able to convert the larger homes into warehouses, aircraft hangers and hotels.
unfortunately I agree with a lot of folks that say a custom home (in the future) is limited to a very few
I too have seen the " I want cheap" however many of those also want quality and when they see what 50cents buys they point to the 10 dollar product and say " but but but thats what I want"
and then drag thier feet to pay 75cents on that same 10 dollar product you delivered
ok gross exsageration ( however thats spelled) but not far from the truth
A bazillion years ago I was in the auto industry, and I have found some things hold in the housing industry
if it is a neccesity they will bitc* about the price, if it is a luxuray, chances are they wont
what............. 60 bucks to make my car run again , no way
what........... 100 to fix my in dash cd player,,,,,,,,,,,,ok
housing is not much different
wish it was like the wine or beer industry, buy a bottle because times are good and celebrate, times are bad , buy a botttle to drown your tears, rarely do I hear people complain, and no matter what the economy, they ( the producers) do good ( or so it seems)
I am not familiar with the "lego" home building of china and japan some of you are talking about..where can I learn more
always good to learn
especially if it is ( as some of you say) the way of the future
however , it does not sound much different then a , dare I say, mobile home.
Edited 11/20/2004 6:08 pm ET by Isamemon
Edited 11/20/2004 6:11 pm ET by Isamemon
I predict SIPs in a major way, with modular factory assembled homes constructed with SIPs becoming the norm. Affordable, cost effective, easily built homes have been on the cutting edge of architectural thinking for centuries and this generation will solve the problem for this generation as our forefather's solved it for their's.
Buckminster Fuller went innovative and bazaar, Frank L. Wright went craftsman on a stretched budget and Sears went drop off a kit and slap it together. Several other innovators fell somewhere in between.
I think the Sears model wins in the long run, but technology will make it a better built home. Framers will become assemblers and the finish trades will still be able to do some creative touches to make every home a "custom."
The good things that will come out of this generation's codes and building practices will be accessibility and energy efficiency. The bad things will be fear of bread mold and litigation out the wazzoo.
And through it all - the Golden Rectangle will stand as the most graceful and solid proportioning system ever discovered and forgotten along the way. The modulars constructed with the ratio of .61804 to 1 will outsell their competitors by a similar proportion and no one will be able to put their finger on the real reason why.
Of course, a proportioning system based on ideal human anatomy may have to evolve in this generation too if McDonald's has their way.
It won't change too much in our lifetime, but it will pay less every year. That's been the norm around Dallas.
Ed.