Every once in a while hereon BT we used to have a thread about how busy we were. I always thought it was interesting to hear from different parts of the country to get an idea what the overall picture looked like.
Last year pretty much sucked for the lumberyard I work at. (Central Illinois) The company gives us sales goals every month. There were some months we made less than 50% of those goals.
Things seemed to pick up in November. Since then we’ve been making goal. But not much over it.
What’s surprised me is how many quotes I’ve been running. Back when things were hot I used to see a big rush of quotes starting some time in March. This year it seems to be starting a month early.
I’ve asked some of our suppliers how they’re doing, and they tell me similar things. So I’m hopeful that things are picking up steam, and it will be a better year for all of us.
Just curious if anyone else has any observations.
Replies
Ron
Over the past year I have watched two local hardwares close. Good hardware stores. Didn't have it-could get it by next week stores. Family business's for years. Gone.
Lumberyards-quoting and not getting. Since several of the local concerns have closed branches and the one or two singles, way less opportunity to go across town-get supplies, work in another area-get supplies at a different yard. Planning and mileage has become a priority to deal with.
Inventory-not what it was.
Delivery? yes and no-less employees, fewer trucks means wait time. Charges for delivery-now a fact of life. With the variable fuel costs, not something they can avg. out over the year. In remodeling it is not often feasible to be able to take a whole package at one time.
My work over the last 5 yrs. Increased-bigger and higher cost jobs were becoming the norm. First 4, best years I've had.
Last year-great start, great finish. In between-not good. Down at least 30 %.
This years start has been so/so. Small jobs, downtime in between. I do have a large project to start as weather breaks and permits approved-mid to late March. Later, if they proceed-a large detailed master bath.
However, nearing 64 and wishing a more reliable consistant income and upon the blessings of our financial advisor-why not retire. Pull from retirement, social security, and add income from more reasonable to the body jobs up to the allowed amount. Start doing things I / we want instead of things I have to do to stay alive. Sure has a nice ring to it.
The plumbers and electricians I use are good so far. They are not large, but do keep from 3 to 5 employees busy. The electricians are probably 70% commercial and 30 residential.
Drywall contractor that does what I don't find profitable, is back on employees He's been doing this for a long time-so he's expanded and drawn back according to the times. Never too big-never too small.
The downturn put many a new home constructor out of business. They over extended in the good times and couldn't pay off the investments when work slowed. Several unfinished or not started "developments' around.
I ask this all the time-why not call the contractor that did your work b/4 ? Well, they are gone.
This led to their loss, but my gain.
With the closing of the house builders, their employees initially moved to areas that had work. But that dried up as the downturn spread. Some stayed and became my unlicensed and non insured competition. I battled that with little or no problem. I lived off reputation and did not have to cut bids in order to beat the other guy. I was hired because they wanted my work.
You asked about what's coming-I answered with what has happened in the past 5. There's been enough changes over that time that I don't think it easy to judge what degree of recovery we can expect. There's less suppliers, way less workers, and not as many contractors as there was. To get back to the point we were 6-7 yrs ago would take more than is going to happen. Not that it is bad if it doesn't . That bubble was way too big to start with.
A more moderate and sustaining growth is what I would hope for. An it'll be easier for the consumer to pick a contractor that has a reputation. Hard to get one in a couple years..............good or bad.
What the heck do I care? I'm nearing being done with it.
EDIT: To qualify the area-NW Ohio-Toledo area-shadow of the motor city-heart of the rust belt.
Ron
Here's a story from a JLC newsletter.
http://www.jlconline.com/economic-conditions/labor-shortages-may-stifle-construction-rebound.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=jump&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=JLCNL_022113&day=2013-02-21
There may be something to that.
We've been trying to hire a yard guy and a driver with a CDL for quite a while. We're not hardly getting anyone in the door. And the vast majority of them aren't anyone you'd really want working for you.
I have no clue why. Seems like there oughta be a lot of people out of work who are looking. But it doesn't seem to be the case.